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Hard Look at Political Polls – What They Miss

Posted on Wednesday, July 22, 2020
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by AMAC, Robert B. Charles
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pollsBrace yourself for wave upon wave of … political polls.  The latest show President Trump lagging presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, as usual.  But stop. Let us do what no one does – look BEHIND these polls, understand the process and bias in polling.

Take two recent polls, by NPR/PBS/Marist (NPR) and ABC/Washington Post (ABC).  Both report new anti-Trump findings.  Take a moment and unpack them.

MSN.com – like may non-technical, left-leaning sites – summarizes both.  A stinging line punctuates a leading paragraph.  Says MSN, NPR’s poll “has Biden beating Trump 60 percent to 35 percent among suburban voters.”  ABC’s poll “is the latest to show former Vice President Joe Biden on a roll … up by a 52 percent to 43 percent margin among suburban voters …”

Okay, so narrative is set – “Biden beating Trump,” “Biden on a roll,” stark numbers.  Most readers go no further, but MSN inserts links to suggest you can – so let us do it.  See:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-polls-show-joe-biden-is-winning-suburbanites-by-a-historic-margin/ar-BB16Vu0y.

Go to links.  What you see is “methodology,” on NPR’s poll some 61 categories defining 1,640 interviewees.  Who is going to study 61 categories?  Not many – but we are.  Here is what you learn.

On process, the survey was done in English and Spanish (no word how many of each), demographic data lags to 2017, interviews were not all “registered voters,” sample size of small groups were unreported, cell phones for business were not accepted, and no response rate is listed.  That is, no report of how many calls resulted in no contact, or “no thank you, not interested in NPR’s survey.”

Any bias here?  What if the survey was just English – our official language? How were nationalized Americans distinguished from illegals? What if demographics were current?  Doesn’t old data change findings?  Which subgroups were “too small to report?”  What if they tipped for Trump?

What effect did omitting “business cell phones” have on findings?  What if owners of the nation’s 30.2 million small businesses have one cell for both business and personal use?  After all, 50 percent of small businesses operate from “home.”  What if these small businesses are pro-Trump entrepreneurs?

Surprise: They are.  Another survey reports “President Trump’s approval rating among small business owners hit an all-time high of 64 percent” in 2020.  If cells used by business owners are omitted, does that affect results? See:  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/trumps-approval-rating-among-small-biz-owners-hits-64percent-survey-shows.html#:~:text=Small%20business%20owners%20are%20a%20consistent%20source%20of,%E2%80%9CPart%20of%20this%20is%20just%20partisanship%2C%E2%80%9D%20Wronski%20said.

Dig deeper.  In the NPR sample, 38 percent are Democrats, only 31 percent Republicans, with 29 percent Independents.  Does that overrepresent Democrats v. Republicans, and Independents v. both?  What effect does that have on accuracy?

Look closer.  Among Democrats in NPR’s survey, one third more are women than men.  Do Democrat men favor Trump more than Democrat women?  Maybe.  Slice the pie differently.  In NPR’s survey, 52 percent are women, 48 percent men.  Does that affect findings?

How about the fact that older voters – who tend to be more conservative – vote more often?  How does NPR account for that?  Pew Research reported in 2020, while “older voters accounted for 43 percent of eligible voters, they cast 49 percent of ballots.” See: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/.  Moreover, 54 percent of older Americans approve of Trump, compared to 30 percent of youngest voters.  See: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/.

With respect to age, only 26 percent of NPR’s respondents were aged 45 to 59.  This may be a major flaw, as 35 percent of voters in 2016 were over 50, and NPR’s survey appears to wholly omit voters over 59.  This is particularly meaningful, as 25 percent of all voters in 2016 were over 65.

Another unreported fact should trigger critical thinking – especially on this NPR survey.  The June 26th NPR survey says Trump’s approval fell from 43 percent in March 2020 to 40 percent in June 2020. But Trump’s overall approval rating was 37 percent in March 2017 – five months after winning election.

Pivot to ABC’s latest survey, more bias.  The media does not expect you to ask, but let us ask. ABC’s headline – to which MSN links: “Pandemic Surge Damages Trump, Boosting Biden’s White House Bid.”  But is that what ABC’s data really says?

To get methodology and qualifiers, you must search.  Stressing credibility, they note: “We do accept some probability-based surveys that do not meet our own methodological standards … recommend cautious use of such data.”  Then on shorter survey methodology, the link just pops an error message.

We learn 65 percent of interviews were cell phones, 35 percent landlines.  Taking that as gospel, demographic data show landlines are held by older Americans, cells held by younger Americans.  Does a 2:1 bias for cells tip results?  Maybe.  See, e.g., https://nypost.com/2017/05/04/why-nearly-46-percent-of-household-still-have-landlines/.

How about this:  ABC uses a “cleaning process” that “excludes respondents who have home-based business-listed phones.” Recall more than 50 percent of small businesses operate from “home,” and 64 percent favored Trump.  Does omitting such lines affect survey results? Maybe.

Other biases are unaccounted – or just undercounted.  The ABC poll omits phones in “institutional” settings, but what of senior living communities? Most are conservative – and residents vote.   Numbers are not small.  In fact, the nation has thousands of apparently undercounted senior living communities. See, e.g. https://www.statista.com/statistics/895322/senior-housing-communities-usa-by-region/.

Last, like other surveys, this one is ambiguous on “response rate” – that is, number of failed contacts, and calls ending in “no, thank you, click.”  Despite contrary arguments, response rates matter.  For several years, telephone survey response rates have been falling.  They now stand at a shocking – six percent.  See: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/.

What does that mean?  Most people just do not answer.  If they answer, they hang up. Those who talk – when told NPR or ABC is calling – might have a motive.  So, net-net do not put great faith in polls.

Even when luminaries at NPR, ABC, and elsewhere say they have 2020 figured out – they probably do not.  They have results they want, based on questions, demographics, and methods supporting the narrative – and a nice, juicy headline.

So, brace yourself for wave on wave … of polls.  But do not put great stock in them.  The reservations often swallow their findings.  Only one poll really counts.  You know it – November 3, 2020.

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JohnH
JohnH
4 years ago

Polls are interesting to note, but you are right when you say the only thing that counts are the Nov 3 poll. Get out & vote.

John Walker
John Walker
4 years ago

A couple of years ago, I read that a week before the 2016 election, at least one poll had Donald Trump’s approval rating at 39%

William Priest
William Priest
4 years ago

Please keep posting this type of information. Fox News, which is supposed to be conservative, posts these polls as if they were fair and unbiased.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
4 years ago

1 sided polls, not wide enough to encompass voters, rigged thus lies etc day 1, cant trust polls. Unless AMAC can do own polling of members nationwide & rate results, then who can, cant trust AP etc other sites, Be daring

Fairfield54
Fairfield54
4 years ago

Thank you. Keep it up. The message needs to get out to everyone that just because the polls say Trump is behind, does not make it so. What about those who fib? There are many. I was called numerous times for the last election and as soon as I heard who the pollster was – I told them what they wanted to hear – Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. My guy won and I pray he does again.

Bruce Kniegge
Bruce Kniegge
4 years ago

polls can be skewed any way a person or organization wants to show their view point is best!

Kristine Wright
Kristine Wright
4 years ago

good article! I like the research.

Tina
Tina
4 years ago

Poll headlines are meant for one thing: to sway opinion. The problem is stated in this piece: “Most readers go no further” than the headline that summarizes the results of the poll.

The headlines are structured to either lull you into complacency (i.e. My guy is winning!) so you sit on your butt, or they are meant o annihilate your morale (i.e. It’s hopeless. My guy can’t win.), so you sit on your butt.

Don’t be foolish enough to mind the polls. MAGA, KAG, TRUMP 2020. Get out & VOTE RED.

VOTE!!!!!!!

Nancy Hoover
Nancy Hoover
4 years ago

Forwarded this most informative, interesting article to friends on email and also posted it on Facebook. People should know. Thanks.

David Spade
David Spade
4 years ago

They forgot to add the 10% favorable Trump rating factor for being tough on just about everything. How many candidates could ever be so wrongly hammered by the press day in and day out since before the election in 2016 and still be standing today? I would say that the voters like a fighter for no other reason than that. People will vote for Donald J. Trump because they hate the leftist Democrat party and the leftist media that attack him every day.

KJHanover
KJHanover
4 years ago

No one with any brains believes these polls.

George Moe
George Moe
4 years ago

Knowing where left leaning people are you can get any results you want. Polls are not reliable now days with the computer power that now exists.

Jack
Jack
4 years ago

We all know how predictable polls are. Look at 2016. I don’t pay any attention to any of the polls by the biased media. And they are all biased toward the Dims. Propaganda machines is all they are and I’m surprised they aren’t dumping them out of airplanes. Yet. They don’t have the ability to hypnotize the public like Hitler did but they are trying to brainwash everyone by repeating the same thing over and over. They think if it’s repeated often enough it will come true and the American citizens will take it as fact. I’m not biting.

David Midkiff
David Midkiff
4 years ago

I can’t see how Joe Biden stands a chance of being the next President. He has done nothing but come out of hiding a few times to tell the fake news what he would do in certain situations. He doesn’t have a good track record or personality to win the election. He’s had 40 plus years to prove himself of any worth and has miserably failed. The fake polls had Hillary ahead in 2016 and you see what happened there.

Donna Hildebrandt
Donna Hildebrandt
4 years ago

If the 2016 election polls taught us anything, it is that election polls mean absolutely NOTHING!!!

Art A
Art A
4 years ago

Polls. The old line that goes “Show me your statistics and I’ll show you mine.” There is a lot of money involved in doing polls. I had a friend who was very successful in marketing and one of his favorite lines was “Make the numbers dance.” Polling hasn’t changed much 1)Demographics(who did you poll?) Sex,age,affiliation etc.2)Sample size. 3) Voters or likely voters.4) How many ways can you ask the same question. Polls are generally somebody wetting a finger and then checking for the wind direction. I agree. The final poll and correct poll will be 113/2020.

Ernest Cooper III
Ernest Cooper III
4 years ago

I will fight to keep our USA free from socialist and communist.

Judy craver
Judy craver
4 years ago

Thank you for the information. I knew the pols had to be wrong. I know Trump in on his way to a second term.

Andre Bixby
Andre Bixby
4 years ago

Polling brings to mind a long ago adage, “Garbage in= garbage out”. Or “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure”.
 

Chuck
Chuck
4 years ago

Numbers can be fudged, just as can election results (voter fraud, Democrats favorite.)

carol
carol
4 years ago

I have been told to watch where money is spent by the campaigns. That is where the candidates believe they need to sway voters to their side! I live in Georgia and have been seeing ads pop up for Trump and that disturbs me because I thought Georgia was a red state. If the Trump campaign thinks they can lose Georgia, that doesn’t sound promising!

James Otton
James Otton
4 years ago

I think that you describe well the major sources of bias in polling.
Another very important source is the nature of the questions. Many questions are structured “some biased or false statement about the candidate or issue” then “do you support the candidate?” or “do you support the candidate’s position on XYZ?” Here is an exaggerated example “Governor Smith proposes opening our precious state lands to rape and pillaging by developers, do you support his/her position?”

Ruth Pierce
Ruth Pierce
4 years ago

I need to remember that these “polls” are just the person’s OPINION–not the GOSPEL TRUTH. With that being said, lately I have been getting a literal avalanche of emails. About a week ago I decided to delete all of them (except the White House ones); for a number of reasons. My nerves cannot deal with all the infighting, they take too long to read (not as long to delete!) and I have already decided to re-elect President Trump! I forgot one reason: They all want donations. That’s all well and good, even necessary. My problem is that I don’t have the income to donate. If I were to donate even HALF the “gift” they ask for, I would be out on the street!

Roger K
Roger K
4 years ago

Trump shall win!

Phil Hammersley
Phil Hammersley
4 years ago

Have any of you members EVER been polled? I know that in over 40 years, I haven’t been! Where do they get the ones they poll? NYC, Chicago, Seattle? Or do they get those of us in “flyover country?” I can’t believe there are over 50% of voters so stupid as to vote for anarchy led by Communists!!

John A. Fallon
John A. Fallon
4 years ago

I asked a resident in a nursing home if he voted and he told me no, nobody ever asked him if he wanted to, are they harvesting votes in nursing homes? There are thousands of nursing homes each with hundreds of residents, this is a problem.

Henry Stuckey
Henry Stuckey
4 years ago

I keep wondering who’s going to replace Biden as the actual candidate, presumably at such a late date in the process that effective vetting will be as difficult as possible.

Tom
Tom
4 years ago

If you put a Biden sign in front of your house what do you expect to happen.? Nothing. If you put a Trump sign outside of your house what do you expect to happen? BLM, ANTIFA will burn your house down. THIS is the silent poll. In November they can NOT burn your ballot.

Steven
Steven
4 years ago

I think it’s funny that every poll that I can think of since the Clinton administration on has been wrong. Yet people keep putting their faith into them as if they were gospel. My all time favorite poll was the evening of this last election, where they were saying Hillary was something like eight or nine percentage points above Trump, and was projected to win it all…when it was all said and done, the look of WHAT HAPPENED on all the Dem’s faces were priceless. I can’t wait to see it again…Trump 2020!!!

MariaRose
MariaRose
4 years ago

Just another reason to not trust poll ratings. They do the same thing with ratings for shows, I laugh at those Rotten Tomatoes ratings which are done by bot voting. Same thing here. A thinking person doesn’t vote by going for someone based solely on how popular their ratings are on social media by the number of “followers “ but based on how well they actually listen to their constituents. If they ignore you because you have an alternative viewpoint then you know that they are representing everyone

Bohdan
Bohdan
4 years ago

When you have @ half of America leaning toward illegal immigration, defunding Police, mass entitlements across the board; our country is on the very edge of life or death… and the cancer is all from within. We are to blame. We never thought this nightmare could actually occur. My Mother used to say, “the way you make your bed, is the way you’ll sleep on it.” We may have come to the point of either letting our country as we know it, fade away or civil revolution to take our beloved country back.

Dino Deplorable
Dino Deplorable
4 years ago

I think that whoever did this had the facts twisted.I was once an independent voter,but after the”king in his own mind nobamba”was elected and he and they work on destroying AMERICA i decided that i would become an anti never ever democrat basher.

Ed J
Ed J
4 years ago

During my graduate MBA program, we were required to take a course in Operations Research. One of the significant components of that course concerned structuring of surveys (in politics, they call them polls) and how easy it was to make significant structural errors in the construction and wording of a survey, resulting in skewing and/or invalidation of results. This article points out many of the same pitfalls we studied in that course. The short answer is that most of these polls are significantly deficient in their construction, their sampling techniques and ultimately in the statistical interpretation of their so-called results.

In effect, most of these political polls are self-serving instruments for the group who set up the survey and almost always can be counted on to confirm and/or reinforced their current ideology and preconceived notions. As a case in point, take the 2016 election where Hillary was anointed as the “hands-down” winner over Trump during the campaign. Gee whiz, folks! All those pre-election polls were wrong, and often wrong to a significant degree. Best advice regarding the current Demshevik polls – ignore them all as essentially worthless. The vote on November 3rd is the only “poll” that counts and will be the ONLY one that will offer 100% objective evidence regarding what America thinks on the issues.

D S
D S
4 years ago

Good story. Even Fox News this morning stated that over 60% of voters either won’t respond or will say Biden to avoid argument or worse. TRUMP WINS, provided YOU get out and vote AND encourage others to KEEP OUR COUNTRY FREE.

Mickey Arnold
Mickey Arnold
4 years ago

Elections always to bring to light the best of fictional facts.

cass
cass
4 years ago

Excellent, detailed and factual article. Thank you!

Brenda Blunt
Brenda Blunt
4 years ago

As usual the left is bonkers!! They are running scar. Go Trump Go!!

xxx
xxx
4 years ago

If we learned anything from 2016, we cannot believe in polls. They are usually very biased and totally wrong.

LauraC
LauraC
4 years ago

Most people answering polls think they can only answer using the choices given, even if their opinion is not included. The choices given are usually skewed to line up with the desires of the pollsters rather than get the real opinions of he polled. In reality, polls are nearly useless as a determination of future events.

GRELLA GRELLA
GRELLA GRELLA
4 years ago

The reason polls are important is simply because many voters want to vote for the “winner”. Those persons are extremely few in number. But in a close election , if one side is cast as the “winner” those voters will vote for that person and could toss the election . Also, polls alert the voters that they must vote if their candidate is to win . If a voter sees his/her candidate slipping , then such voter will ramp up his/her determination to vote . I for one , am horrified by the notion that Biden is leading Trump. So, you can bet your life on the fact that i will be out there voting for my candidate ( Mr. Trump ) . To say that i am disappointed in the Democrats is an understatement. I am horrified by the Democrat party from top to bottom. It seems that everything they do or stand for is about destruction , whether its abortion, or “fundamental change” , or defund the police , etc. Democrats don’t appear to stand for anything positive or constructive. They’re always anti this or anti that. They appear to me to be anti-America.

Leon W Krauss
Leon W Krauss
4 years ago

Polls are only a representation of the view point of the people asking the question and of the people who they decide to ask! As such, they are pure rubbish. The 2016 election polls showed all of America just how valid those polls were. Thank God! We have known for the past several presidential elections how invalid and totally useless these polls actually are. Don’t give any of them any credibility. Yes, I emphatically agree that the only meaningful number is the final one on November 3rd!

Patty deBingo
Patty deBingo
4 years ago

Thank you for giving us this information, which in our hearts, we already believe is happening. Now..I’m going to post this link on some FB websites… hope they don’t block it or call it false information, which they are doing.

James
James
4 years ago

Vote as though your country depends on it! Trust me, you won’t like it if Biden wins!

Robin W Boyd
Robin W Boyd
4 years ago

Polls are mostly conducted by the same Progressives that deceive US with alleged news stories. People are afraid to state they will vote for Trump for fear of violent retaliation from Progressives. Pray Progressives can be kept from stealing the election.

Alfred L Decker
Alfred L Decker
4 years ago

Nothing in this report surprises me. Thank you for reporting the truth!

K. Martin
K. Martin
4 years ago

All I know is that not one, single poll had Trump winning in 2016, yet he did. The other thing is: Not once in my entire 64 years — excluding those years I was not old enough to vote — have I ever been polled, other than on an online survey site of which I frequent, which is anonymous. Although the two aforementioned facts are good to know, we must never, ever succumb to overconfidence nor underestimate our enemy by thinking we do not have to vote. Voting is incredibly important this year, especially knowing the depths to which the other side will stoop to win, i.e., fraud.

mickey meyers
mickey meyers
4 years ago

DNC Media, the Demorats and all their lap dogs…do their best everyday to convince the low information voter…President Trump is no good.. even though all these left-wing, nut-jobs are hanging off the cliff…. ALL making major bucks to get people to believe their Lies about Polls and Votes… The demo-dogs and their media all tell the same Lies … They better watch out people are Fed UP… Big Red Trump Train is COMMING… 2020… Can’t wait to see them pulling their hair out, Crying in their beer…

Brian
Brian
4 years ago

The dark side is famous for election fraud, for producing boxes of ballots that had been either misplaced or recovered from storage closets or garbage bins.

More recently, these fugitives from the light have expanded their criminal enterprise to include voter fraud, rounding up “illegal alien voters” and enlisting them to fill the shoes of “non-voting registered citizens,” even to fill multiple pairs of shoes in multiple precincts.

These denizens of the deepest darkness even have their own self-directed, detached operatives, such as the Black Panthers in Philadelphia brandishing a billy club to suppress Hillary voters.

As Saul Alinsky wrote, “Accuse your enemy of what you are doing.” The media-driven hysteria of 2018, about Russian hacking into voting machines to inflate Republican tallies, bodes ill for the 2020 elections, if Chinese hackers can navigate the OEM back doors in voting machines built in Soros-owned companies.

David Wyncoop
David Wyncoop
4 years ago

MOST polls are a joke (main stream), look at how they went in 2016. Most folks with a brain don’t want to even get involved. Just wait for Nov 3rd! My only fear is that the liberals are really changing things and I’m afraid that they will make sure Biden doesn’t debate Trump and they will figure out a way or ways to cheat on Nov 3rd. If Biden does debate Trump look for Joe to get the questions in advance and softball type questions. Trump will get tough questions, with attitude and made to look as bad as possible.

Ann Aldrich
Ann Aldrich
4 years ago

I don’t believe any of the main stream media polls. Anyone can play with numbers to fit their agenda. Their polls and news are the same LIES!

virginia state flag and voter box
President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the economy at a roundtable with business and labor leaders, Friday, November 18, 2022, in the South Court Auditorium in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building at the White House. (Official White House Photo by Erin Scott)
jim nicholson and kamala harris with bible and rosary behind them about her anti-catholic acts
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