History – mark my words – repeats itself. Perhaps because human nature never changes, we often see the same error twice, similar resolution. Donald Trump is on track to secure peace between Russia and Ukraine, just as Theodore Roosevelt did in 1905 between Russia and Japan.
Have you ever played chess, or maybe poker, whist, gin-rummy, crazy eights, spades or hearts? The Russians – and Ukrainians – play a game called Durak, which means “idiot.” The point: You play a game many times, and over time you begin to see patterns, how one player reacts to another.
The same thing happens in geopolitics: patterns repeat themselves. While few realize it – and historians are too often ignored – these patterns produce repeat reactions, reactions to the reactions, and outcomes, some good, some bad, many predictable.
Odd how close past events are to now. In February 1904, a war broke out between Russia and Japan, with Japan the aggressor. Like today’s Russian aggression in Ukraine, that war – 120 years ago – was about land, control of territory, and, in particular, access to a warm water port.
Japan was – there is no dispute – the aggressor. They knew Russian supply lines were stretched, had had even challenged China in Korea ten years prior. They were a belligerent, took Russia by surprise.
That war had raged for a year, before the American President, Theodore Roosevelt, took it on himself to end it. The basis went back years, just as the Russia- Ukraine war does. Japan had belligerently taken the Liaodong Peninsula from China in 1894. Europe forced Japan to give it back.
Japan resented that. China, rather ironically, leased the peninsula to Russia, which needed a warm water port – not to the south as with Ukraine, but to the far east. Japan, sensing Russian unpreparedness and an opportunity, attacked the Russian fleet at Port Arthur. Thus began that war.
In February 2022, 118 years after Japan attacked Russia to cut off their warm water port in the far east, Russia – again ironically – attacked Ukraine, seeking a warm water port in the south. The Russified portion of eastern Ukraine notwithstanding, that port matters to Russia’s fleet, as in 1904.
In 1905, a Republican American President, Theodore Roosevelt, realized that the Russo-Japanese war could escalate, widen the disruption of trade around the world, including with Europe and the US. He also realized the conflict was, with Russia getting the short stick, in a deadlock.
Accordingly, speaking first with one, then the other, he invited both counties to peace talks in Portsmouth, New Hampshire – on the Maine border. Russia came licking their wounds, literally and figuratively, having suffered recent defeats at Mukden and Tsushima. They had little leverage.
Theodore Roosevelt offered honor, US recognition of both countries, and hope of a – naturally difficult, hard for both sides – peace. He persisted. He understood peace was worth the effort.]
Both countries were, by that time, financially pressed and fighting a war of attrition. Unrest was developing in Russia, just as it is gathering in Ukraine today. Japan, the aggressor, was strained.
Roosevelt saw an opportunity. Pride and politics being what it is, he knew peace would be hard, but opened the door to it at Portsmouth. He did not invite the Europeans, or any other interested party. Instead, he worked to get both sides to see peace, even with loss of full victory, was worth securing.
That peace, like the one Trump hopes to secure between Ukraine and Russia, was hard to craft, and Japan – the aggressor – ultimately was allowed to retain much of what they had taken, while they had to acknowledge a more permanent peace with Russia, one that lasted for some time.
So, what are the lessons? First, ending wars is hard, always involves pride and sacrifice, but someone has to start the discussion. TR did, and Trump has. Second, the first round is scrappy, neither side wanting to give in, and populations in distress, suffering, demanding more.
Finally, the outcome – like the inevitability of death and taxes – becomes apparent, and worth working to achieve. Wars do not last forever, no war ever has or ever will. The initiative, as in many things, must be taken, persuasion and pressure used to secure concessions, a deal crafted.
Is Donald Trump doing that now? Yes. Did TR do that in 1905, to exhaustion and until both sides accepted peace over war? Yes. Anything further? Yes, that peace lasted until the first World War, which was started by Germany, neither Russia nor Japan. And TR? He won the Nobel Peace Prize.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC. Robert Charles has also just released an uplifting new book, “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024).
I would suggest reading 2 books, TheCreature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve and Great Depressions Then and Now.
Both these books provide some interesting details that might shed some light on our present situation.
What the American citizens need to do is get more involved with overseeing our own government. We have become very comfortable in our nation. We’ve allowed the people we elect to office to run roughshod over us. Trump is doing his level best to be transparent and reduce the size of the machine that is designed to destroy the USA. It’s up to “We the People” to assist with this effort.
As for Trump receiving a Nobel Prize, he deserves one, but that committee doesn’t seem to understand the purpose of the award. Heck, they gave Obama one. I can’t say I ever knew exactly what he did to earn it.
Outstanding article highlighting the similarities between the two Presidents. Most of the current western European leaders seem to be stoking a continuation of a war between Ukraine and Russia that Europe can neither afford to continue to finance without the United States contributing the overwhelming majority of money and munitions. It’s simple math when you look at the shape of the European economies and the size and strength of their individual military capabilities. Only the Italian PM is a voice of reason in western Europe at this point. On the eastern European side, there are a few more sane voices, but of course the MSM chooses to ignore them almost completely. It doesn’t fit the MSM narrative.
As for President Trump ever winning a Nobel Peace Prize, that is sadly doubtful. He should have already won one for the Abraham Accords from his first term, but the Nobel committee seems only interested in awarding their honor to those on the Left for the last few decades.
RBC, interesting article. Totally agree with “History is always repeating itself as human leadership never remembers or learns from previous consequences.” As to Pres Trump receiving the Nobel Peace Prize with a Liberal committee — doubtful, but one never knows.
Have a good weekend.
This article illustrates the value of history : what. Theodore Roosevelt did involved diplomatic ingenuity and the world benefited by it. A great pattern to follow is one that settles disputes through clear , intelligent speaking and truthfulness . Knowledge of history is part of getting things done right – whether it is building something. or. settling a dispute over a political policy that has gone off course To. draw on the experience that has gone before is the practical, sensible method to proceed in the right direction . Encouraging writing RBC , Well Done.
If only the lessons of true history were taught in our schools today. Sadly the void has been filled with valueless ideas. Your short articles are full of valuable, inspiring information. You have a gift of teaching. Thank you, Mr. Charles. God bless.
Article told me that man always coveted that which other possessed. Germany which was technologically advanced was a treat to stale Britain and France which held a big chunk of a pie each , Austria wanted an access to the Black Sea,Russia as well, nothing to do with poor Serbia or women and children in Belgium. The carnage and mess to end all the wars ended up with the signed piece of paper not a decisive victory only to repeat itself 20 years later. Might be easier to lie with the beast than coexist with each other. All we can do is hope for peace in out time, thank God for President Trump’s grit As for Nobel Peace Prize what a farce. Didn’t Arafat received one?
Another.excellent commentary from RBC. Being a History and Political Science major and having taught these subjects for several years in the public schools, I particularly enjoy articles of this nature. Thanks, RBC!
It seems that Trump is not a politician, or even a mere businessman, but a statesman. As in making sausage, the results matter more than the process.
Russia has been as inhumane against Ukraine citizens as Hamas has been in GAZA, with the killing & capture of innocent men,women,and children. And what about the prisoners that have been taken hostage by Russia & Ukraine?
Trump did not do any good for his reputation of ART OF THE DEAL. Trump, Vance, and Hegsbeth all three announced to the media that NATO was off the table for Ukraine without Vallenskyy involved in negotiations. Then Trump told Vallenskyy he should have never started the war & then called him a dictator. Looks to me like the DEAL is very one sided against the country that is being destroyed.
It is still wrong for one country to invade another county , because they are a bully and want something that the country has such as a seaport. And to invade & kill citizens & bomb the country is just wrong & should not be condoned by the rest of the world.
The Russo-Japanese War predicted the horrors which would fall across Europe in 1914 – the current state of both technology and doctrine led to trench warfare. The result – stalemate with high costs in lives and ammunition.
Japan sent an agent to Russia to ‘seed’ civic unrest and upset the Russian war machine. There were a few groups calling for democracy, but there was one calling for the replacement of the Imperial Family. The Japanese funded that group with money, weapons, and explosives. Large strikes struck the armaments industries and street protests called for an end to the war. The Russian government was now fighting two wars – one in the East and one at home. After the treaty, the group Japan funded survived the war stronger than it had ever been. Over the next decade they continued to work towards their goal. In 1917, they deposed the Czar, ended the fledgling democracy, and established The USSR.
In Japan, the government hid the truth of the stalemate and cost of the war. Opposing political parties slammed the peace treaty, claiming Japan had been cheated. The ripples of the political fighting continued into the 1930s.
“The Tide at Sunrise” (Denis Warner and Peggy Warner, 1974) is an excellent read of the first war in the Far East of the 20th Century.
I also remember reading that the U.S. public sentiment was rooting for Japan over Russia. Given we were not racially enlightened at that time that says a lot of how disliked Russia was!