Do you believe in miracles? Yes, here too. What about political miracles? Yes, how could we not – after 2016. No, not talking about the presidential election, which is looking better by the week, nor the Senate which may stay Republican – against the odds. Talking about the US House, which wrongly impeached President Trump, brims with Socialists, and disrespects what many died for, our freedom. Yes, there is a chance – just a chance – the House could flip.
First, forgive the jargon, emphasis on numbers and game theory. What matters most is love of country, freedoms of speech, worship, assembly, self-defense, and avoiding government overreach. Keeping faith with the past matters. But now, with deference – consider the game.
Here are new numbers, that suggest a sea change. They imply possibilities that did not exist a few months ago. They suggest Americans are tired of lawlessness, attacks on Trump, endless spending, loose talk about socialism, and burbling anti-Americanism.
The surprise may be how many Americans do love this country. We may find Americans voting their hearts, stunning the opposition. Numbers show the spirit lives. Coincidentally, 40 years ago Americans stunned the Soviets in that “Miracle on Ice.” Socialists may be stunned again.
No one in the media is predicting Democrats lose the House, or Pelosi resigning, but it could happen. Politics in the Heartland, suburbs, and cities are churning. People are edgy, unhappy, suddenly do not trust Democrats. Gun sales, Republican registrations, and public disaffection are up. If the disaffected vote, things could tip. They did in 1994 – Republicans took the House.
Here is why, how, and which races might flip the House. Note: Democrats retook control in 2018 by winning 30 House seats Republicans had won – two years earlier. One reason is low voter turnout in every non-presidential year. Turnout rises in presidential election years.
Concern raises turnout, too. People are teed off. Biden’s faltering capacity, Harris’s opportunism, spreading riots, economic distress, Supreme Court, China, border, taxes, prescription drug prices, and protecting America’s seniors – may change this cycle.
Republicans need is a “net gain” of 17 seats to retake the House and reverse socialism’s rise. News is good, as 13 needed seats are “ruby red” – districts Trump won by six points in 2016.
If Democrats have millions on hand, principles also matter. Democrats are on the wrong side of history, law and order, economic growth, taxes, and national security. They have a record.
Changes on the fly show Republicans have depth Democrats do not. In May 2020, California’s 25th district was won by Republican Mike Garcia, US Navy fighter pilot, son of a legal Mexican immigrant, and unabashed patriot. His victory lit the horizon, presaging thunder in the fall.
Republicans need 17 seats – and 30 are in play. Some must be held, others retaken. Angle of attack is different for each shot, but odds are rising – for Republicans. In open seats, most retiring Republicans should be replaced by Republicans. Alabama’s 1st district is solidly Republican, by 26 percent. Likewise, Alabama’s 2nd is solid Republican, by 23 percent. Other races look good, like California’s 8th, Florida’s 3rd and 19th, Georgia’s 7th, that Trump won by 6.
Solid too are Georgia’s 9th, Illinois’ 15th, and Indiana’s 5th, along with Kansas’ 1st, Louisiana’s 5th, Michigan’s 10th, and Montana’s “at large” district. In many, early Democrat leads vanished; trends are now red. Same is true in New York’s 2nd, which Trump won by 9 points.
Rounding out open seats, watch North Carolina’s 2nd and 6th districts, Texas 22nd, 23rd, and 24th. These are possible losses, but Republican prospects are rising. History matters. Trump won the 24th by 6 points. Republicans are solid in Oregon’s 2nd, Tennessee’s 1st, Utah’s 1st, and Wisconsin’s 5th.
All that is what you might call the “defensive line” – and it is strong. If it holds, the game turns on how many seats Democrats lose. Toss-ups are shifting red. As of mid-September, a dozen toss-ups are tipping Republican, according to Real Clear Politics. See, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html.
At the same time, a few of the remaining 19 toss-ups – currently Democrat-leaning – must go Republican. Several factors could make that happen. First, if Trump gains in these states, that helps down-ticket, as moderates and Independents may give him a House he can work with.
Second, some Democrats in toss-ups are vulnerable. In California’s 1st, the incumbent won by less than a point in 2018. Media outlets now endorse the Republican. See, e.g., https://www.fresnobee.com/opinion/editorials/article240603301.html.
Likewise, in Georgia’s 6th, the Democrat won by a point in 2018. The Republican opponent has a history of winning against odds. See, https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-house-6th-district-election-lucy-mcbath-karen-handel-2020. Another district to watch is Iowa’s 2nd – where the Republican leads and is riding a wave. Trump won that state by four points in 2016.
Surges are appearing. In New Mexico’s 2nd, the Democrat incumbent won by less than two points in 2018. The Republican challenger is closing – down by two. A similar scenario marks New York’s 22nd – where the Democrat won by 1.8 points in 2018, but the Republican challenger formerly held that seat, and won it by 15.5 in 2016. He may again.
In South Carolina’s 1st, where the Democrat won by 1.4 points in 2018, Trump walked away with the district by 13.1 points in 2016. If turnout is high, history could repeat. Republicans are also on the march in the OH 1st, VA 5th, AZ 6th, PA 10th, NJ 2nd, TX 21st, and MO 2nd. See, https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings.
Where does all this lead? Hard to say. Tallying seats that hold Republican, flip Democrat, hold Democrat, or flip Republican – is like mindreading or throwing dice, not real science. But these races and national trends suggest change is possible. People are not happy with Speaker Pelosi, virulent socialism, or Democrat-fanned riots and violence.
Put differently, predicting who will control the House is like predicting an Olympic victory from past wins. By that account, the Soviets should have won in 1980 – as they had more Olympic hockey medals, individual honors, and Soviet Socialist credentials than the ragtag gaggle of American patriots, unstoppable believers in the possible … America’s Olympic hockey team.
A foregone conclusion can be undone by belief in the miracle, and hard work. America’s political destiny is not about who controls things right now – but who will fight for our values and the future. By that measure, anything is possible. Could the House flip? Long shot, but …
Here’s how I see it in very simple terms. Everyone out there writing about the Democrat party all claim there is a battle within the party between so-called moderates and the far left socialists / communists. If that is indeed true, then the moderate wing voters of the party should be horrified by the way that Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and the rest of the so-called moderate Democrats on Capitol Hill have totally caved to the Sanders / AOC wing of the party. Who stood next to Schumer on Capitol Hill recently as he repeated, yet again, the talking points of the Sanders / AOC wing? None other than AOC herself to ensure Schumer delivered his lines as written for him. A freshman Congresswoman who supposedly isn’t running things yet she is in a position to be calling the shots.
AOC has identified 51 seats in Congress currently held by so-called moderate Democrats deemed unwilling to bend the knee enough to the new socialist order (“progressive” for you out there that still cline to the obsolete term) running things. She and her financial backers are actively targeting these few remaining hold-outs to be replaced by carbon copies of AOC and her squad.
At this point the entire so-called moderate Democrat leadership in both houses of Congress are in complete lock-step support of the ongoing burning, looting and rioting occurring in the Democrat run cities located in Democrat states. As is the DNC itself. So where is the supposed difference between the two wings of the Democrat party at this point? Answer: There is none. The battle is over and the socialists won full control of all the major chess pieces of the party.
So to any actual so-called moderate Democrat voters out there, that should tell you that there is no place left for you in the Democrat party. If you are truly moderate, then you should be running as fast as you can to the only alternative out there that doesn’t want to completely trash this country. That is the Republican Party and Trump. If you still plan to vote Democrat, then stop referring to yourself as moderate, because there is nothing in the 110 page Democrat party platform that is actually moderate. The Democrat platform and the party’s leaders are advocating pure socialism. So at least be honest with yourself.
With a Republican House in 2017/18, all that Congress could muster was a tax cut. Seems like more should have been accomplished.
In any case, unless the President can change some hearts and minds in the next two debates, the House is a longshot at best and the Senate will be extremely close.
We need to take all three levels and never allow dems to have ANY power. And if the republicans acts like the dems w foolish lies, and noncompliant legislation, impeachment etc disrespecting the President dems or Republican they need to voted out.
NO PRESIDENT SHOULD BE TREATED LIKE HOW THEY TREATED OUR PRESIDENT
Can only take House:
I live in Oregon, we are under terrible oppression from the liberal government here. With the governor leading this mob, they are out to destroy this once beautiful state. They have mismanaged the budget, our safety, our forests, our schools, Covid response and everything else they touch. I think conservatives have great numbers in this state, but because of the re-districting all of the populous centers are in the democrat-run cities, where all the liberals live. So the rest of the state, largely Republican, suffer. The Republicans in the state are fired up about everything that is going on and I think we really have a chance to flip this state on November 3rd. I sure hope so, because if not the only choice I have is to move out of this state.
I am praying that President Trump is reelected and that the Republicans take control of the house and Senate. If not, I am afraid that we will have a war in our own country. Perhaps Trump should not have come back at Biden so much in the debate, but just how much can anyone take. All Biden did was lie, lie, lie. Trump told the truth and those who cannot see that he has kept all campaign promises from 2016 need to look again. In my 80 years of life, he is the ONLY president who has done so.
I think most people are disgusted with the Democrats continually throwing their temper tantrums because Killary lost in 2016. I get it that they didn’t like President Trump. But he has been the Greatest President we’ve had in my 64 years. He has fulfilled almost all of his campaign promises while under constant bullying from the Democrats. Why tear the country apart because they don’t like our President ? I print out sample ballots for the wife and I to take to the polls so that we are on the same page and if a candidate has a “D” behind their name it is blacked out. No more D’s in this house.
Americans need to register and vote, on person! There is much hope and prayers are going up daily!
I believe in miracles and our all mighty God! All red, white and blue Americans can make it happen if they get out and vote Republican. In person if possible because it has already been proven the demorats are making not to be trusted and are abusing the mail in system.
God Bless America and President Trump!
What still worries me is the ballot fraud. We hear about it…dumped ballots, Ilhan’s corruption(why isn’t she in JAIL??). How does that get fixed??
The party that proclaims they are for the people have nothing but distain for the people. The Democratic party wants power not to govern but to Rule. Vote RED (REMOVE-EVERY-DEMOCRAT) And if we happen to get RINO’s RECALL THEM!
It takes a belief in good,Unity and Money to keep a Country going.We The People have lost the idea of the first two and we are broke.The poor in the USA are growing everyday and it will not stop until the end of the USA as we know it was.
I hated History when I went to school because a lot of it was lies.We almost destroyed all the human beings that were here before us.These people had territories that we took and sold to us the people that came here in Boats.
Reading this message of hope made my day better. I am going to keep this list and watch the returns. We are in Alaska and have Don Young in the House. Outsiders are trying to turn Alaska blue. We all hope they fail.
I’d like to believe you; that there is a chance. And maybe it’s just because I live in the left wing state of MA and get bombarded daily by the left wing press. But I really think, unless Trump does a “good behavior” turnaround in the next debate, we’re going to lose the House, Senate, and WH.
We need to get out and vote. People have the idea that 1 vote won’t matter. That has been proven wrong over and over. Don’t stay home.
It’s going to be almost impossible to take the House back with mail-in balloting. While the Democrats will have the nation focused on the Presidential election, they will be stealing Congressional and Senatorial seats with mail-in voter fraud. The main stream media hasn’t reported on the fraud uncovered to date and they wouldn’t
report on any fraud uncovered in the next two months either.
I honestly believe we will win all three and the president will be a landslide. The only thing I worry about is the illegal shanaggians the left will pull, and they will pull them. They will stoop to new low levels to “win” power back.
Check the betting lines in Las Vegas. What is the over or under? All of these races are 30+ days in the future. The race does not always go to the swiftest. Work as hard as you can for the candidate of your choice. BOTTOM LINE IS VOTE= VOTE= VOTE. DO NOT STAY HOME! VOTE BY ABSENTEE IF YOU NEED TO BUT VOTE! 11/3/2020 MAGA/KAF/KAG. TRUMP/ PENCE.
Pray without ceasing for a republican majority in the house. Pelosi should be removed and Schumer also. They are both UnAmerican. They are not working for the American people and certainly not doing what they were elected to do. They are both sick and demented and should be removed in any case.
I am way more optimistic then the author of this greatly detailed article. Thank you by the way for your analysis.
Keep in mind there is a Nationalist/ Populist shift that has brought the globalism we have experienced for the last 3 decades to a grinding halt! Trump road this wave into our lives in 2016, and there has been no slowing down of the worldwide phenomenon. Watch the news of elections in Brazil, Hungary, Australia, India, Italy and my favorite the UK.
In Dec2019 yet another Brexit election took place in the UK. It has been a long hard struggle to leave the Euro Union and people of the UK were fed up with their very elitist politicians. A massive 100+ seat reversal took place.
To put this in context with round numbers, the UK has a 650 seat parliament that before the Dec 19 election was split: Labor Party (the center left) 300 seats, Tory Party (the center right) 300 seats, and 50 seats divided up into a few other parties.
After the election: Labor 202 seats, lowest since 1935! Torys 365 ! The Right gained 48 seats the left lost 60.
AND, many of the most radical did NOT get re-elected!! Gone!
Thinking outside the box ( of the USA) makes me smile.
It will take a miracle from GOD, but HE is still in the miracle business. I just hope HE doesn’t think we deserve what we are getting!
What truly scares me is that we have so many people in our nation so warped and so uninformed/uneducated that they can vote for any Democrat given what the Democratic Party has become. They are unAmerican at their core. The entire party supports wealth redistribution which is nothing but the sales pitch for socialism. Wealth redistribution simply steals the assets/income of a minority, the more affluent in this case who generally earned those assets, and gives them to those who earned none of it, all in exchange for votes. It’s buying votes with someone else’s money, and its the only thing besides lying at which the left excels.
There are enough Patriots in our country that will get out and vote that we could end up taking the House and retain the Senate. Citizens are fed up with the riots and lawlessness that is sweeping across America. The alternative to Trump is socialism. Schumer and Pelosi need to go. Antifa and BLM need to be called what they are: Terrorist groups. Enough of the B.S. ALL LIVES MATTER! We are all EQUAL under the law and our God.
It is all about MONEY, the hollywierd “elites”, the grossly overpaid athletes and “journalists” all have one thing in common, they ONLY care about the MONEY they get paid to “speak” they do not have a clue what it is like to live in the REAL WORLD living in secure gated communities they do not care what happens to the working class, they will have a rude awakening if socialists get control, it will be thier wealth that gets redistributed, and we can say “WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE YOU HELPED CREATE!!!”
I didn’t read the article above but to respond to the title’s question: Yes! With God all things are possible!! However, we NEED to repents of our sins of “commission AND OMIMMISION” before Him and return to His ways!!
See the video of the PRAYER MARCH IN DC, Sat, 9-26-’20. Link can be found at Billy Graham Evangelistic Assn. web site. Then, there is another link to plug into of another happening in DC at the same time, called “RETURN”. It can be “googled” w/the word RETURN, I suppose. I HIGHLY recommend it for all who call themselves Christian!!
I “WISH” that voters would quit acting like damn hypnotized ZOMBIES as keep voting for the communist ( D ) party.
All those vampires do is TAX – SPEND – LIE – to CONTROL. If ya’ can’t figger it out then just stay home and wear your masks.
That is all you are probably good for. ( D ) stands for communist VAMPIRES.
The best way for Republicans to take the House is to make sure Americans recognize what a tyrant Nancy Pelosi is. If it were not for her the noise level of politics would be much lower and the people of America would be getting the help and attention they deserve.She has blocked or held up every Coronavirus relief bill to gain a political advantage and, as a result, good people have suffered. Many have lost their businesses because they have never been the focus of her attention. Instead, she has used the pandemic as an excuse to implement political tactics designed to increase her power and cover for terrible mismanagement by the Mayors of our big cities. There used to be a time when, even though the parties disagreed on a variety of topics, they came together in a time of crisis. That’s no longer the case because the only crisis that matters to Pelosi is a power crisis to the politicians of her party. She is unfit to lead and she should be drummed out of government so our country can go back to the days where government actually functioned to assist the people. That will never happen with Pelosi in office!
The REAL legal American citizen has a lot at stake. They MUST get out and vote! If they don’t vote, they CANNOT complain or anything because they sat by and LET it happen. If they care about all the rights and freedoms we currently have, then THEY MUST GET OUT AND VOTE. Capitalism is the way. God founded the USA and WE need to fight for it BEFORE it is taken away!!
I’m really tired of Nasty Peelosi holding our nation hostage with her demands.
BE CAREFUL is saying that certain seats in Congress are ” solid “ Republican . Yes , some CDs do strongly favor Republicans. However , the use of the word ” solid ” implies that a Republican victory is a sure thing . This idea can cause some Republican voters to stay home , thinking their vote is not needed . This has caused some Republican candidates to lose elections even though most voters in that district wanted the Republican to win . I once won an election in a tiny district by only one (1) vote . So , I know what I am saying when I say EACH and EVERY vote counts . If you don’t vote , well then , your vote does not count . So , please realize just how important your vote is . And please let other Republican voters know just how important their vote actually is also .
You are absolutely right ! The Democrats in the media and in the Congress and in the DoJ and in the ‘intelligence’ services and also at State and local levels have tried to stop Trump at every turn. He beat them all. But they won’t stop trying . I want Trump to win re-election . So, you can bet your life on the fact that I’ll be out there voting on election day .
I pray that Real Americans make their voices heard.
Landslide for President Trump and house and senate to the GOP.
Let’s go America!!
Don’t believe in miracles, and don’t count your eggs before they are hatched. The election could equally likely go the other way, with us losing it all. My neighborhood, and all surrounding neighborhoods, are a sea of Biden signs, along with BLM etc signs. Not a Trump sign anywhere. If someone fell into this region from outer space he would conclude this was a one-man election.
The only way we stand a chance is if we all do out part to assure that everyone possible gets out and votes down the commies. And even then it’s gonna be tight.
Depends on whether the dems can get away with cheating enough to keep the house. We already know that is going on in Omar’s district, so obviously it’s happening in others too.
The only way we will take back the house, keep the senate, and re-elect our amazing president is to VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!
After watching the 1st debate, I think that the Republicans might lose seats in both House & Senate this election. Trump was so erratic, that I believe that people might see the need to put some checks & balance on presidential power (such as Executive Orders).Trump did not come out in debate in convincing me that he is for all Americans (whether Blue or Red). We need to unite Americans again.
Today it is very critical that all Americans see the real danger or becoming a socialist country. We must demand that accurate American History be taught in high school and college. If the teachers refuse fire them.
DIMMs have nothing to offer but hate and lies. Anyone that loves freedom MUST vote Republican,even if it’s for a RINO. Pelosi is a crooked hater and kowtows to anti-Semites like Omar and AOC.
Show them the truth and they will accept it.
It all depends on getting out the vote. VOTE! it is vital and DOES make a difference!
Watched the opinion of the Debate Tuesday on both FOX & CNN news. What a difference & makes me wonder if we are all living in the same country.
The best ever debate would have been Ronald Reagan & Donald Trump with Megyn Kelly as moderator. Pick your winner , but I know who I would pick,.
If we all get out and VOTE, YES we, the true AMERICAN Citizens CAN win back the House and hold the Senate! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!! Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!! Stand-up for Our Republic!!!! Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!
First Remove every DemocRat (RED), then we can eliminate all RINO’s and “old line” Republicans. Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!! Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!! Stand-up for Our Republic!!!! Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!
The First Presidential Debate consisted of President Trump debating against Chris Wallace and some odd old mumbling guy trying to make a little noise! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!! Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!! Stand-up for Our Republic!!!! Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!
Get our Children our of Public Schools and turn-off Mainstream Media! Become a Free American!! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!! Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!! Stand-up for Our Republic!!!! Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!
The DemocRats, The Media, Teachers Unions, etc. try to make us believe they are invincible! They ARE NOT! Push back against the bullies!! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!! Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!! Stand-up for Our Republic!!!! Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!
What is happening today is exactly why OUR Founders wrote and passed the 2nd Amendment!! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution Version 2.0!!! Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!! Stand-up for Our Republic!!!! Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!
The DemocRats (Communists) have insulted every American Citizen by giving their nomination to a dementia patient and a left wing failure and still expect you to vote for them! If the Communists win this election with this ticket, they will ensure that there will never again be a true election in their United Soviet States of America!! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution Version 2.0!!! Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!! Stand-up for America!!!! Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!
Because of the traitor Paul Ryan and the RINO’s, President only had a partial/sometimes majority! We AMERICANS need to give OUR President a a TRUE Majority in 2020!! Join the Trump Movement – The American Revolution 2.0!!! Become a Counter-Revolutionary!!! Stand-up for Our Republic!!!! Remove Every DemocRat!!!!!
One thing we should remember is that even when the Republicans had both house and senate they did nothing but oppose our great President and his attempts to correct the evil that was obama / biden ask yourself are these same people go do anything differently this time around if elected or are they just looking for votes to save their worthless asses ? Remember the Republicans had control for the first two years of the Trump Presidency and did nothing but cower to democraps those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it look closely at how you cast your vote but by all means vote TRUMP !!