ONE WEEK OUT: Where Things Stand in the Biggest Contests of 2025

2025’s off-year elections have been some of the most high-profile in recent memory, with voters deciding major ballot initiatives that could influence control of the U.S. House for decades to come, along with text message scandals and a threatened socialist takeover of America’s largest city.

Here’s where things stand one week out from Election Day in the most important contests this year.

Virginia – Spanberger leads, but Earle-Sears holds all the momentum

Earlier this summer, it looked like Democrats had a decided advantage in all three statewide races in Virginia. Former Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger held a healthy lead over Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in the gubernatorial contest, while Democrat state Senator Ghazala Hashmi led Republican John Reid for Lt. Governor, and former Democrat Del. Jay Jones led incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares for that post.

But then came a slew of scandals involving Jones, which appear to be dragging down the rest of the Democrat ticket.

First, it was revealed that Jones had escaped prison time for a reckless driving charge in 2022 after speeding 116 mph down a Virginia interstate. Jones told a court that he performed 500 hours of community service to his own political action committee – suggesting that he may have been campaigning and passing it off as community service. An investigation has now been launched into the matter.

Then, National Review broke a bombshell story detailing text messages from Jones in which he fantasized about putting “two bullets” in the head of former Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert. Jones also said he hoped Gilbert’s children would die in their mother’s arms and allegedly said in a phone conversation that it would be a good thing if more police officers were killed in the line of duty because they would be able to shoot fewer civilians.

Spanberger, Hashmi, and the rest of the Virginia Democrat ticket have continued to support Jones, despite repeated calls from Earle-Sears and Virginia Republicans for Jones to drop out of the race – and it appears to be costing them their polling lead.

In the latest RealClearPolitics (RCP)average, Spanberger leads by 7.1 points, down from 8.6 points just before the text message scandal broke. Some polls have shown the race even closer, with Spanberger leading by as few as three points.

The races for Virginia Lt. Governor and Attorney General are even closer, with most polls showing those contests within the margin of error. Miyares leads by 2.4 points in the RCP average, with one recent poll from Quantus Insights showing him with a seven-point advantage.

As AMAC Newsline reported this week, early vote totals have also looked promising for the GOP. Total early vote numbers have far surpassed 2021 levels, and more ballots have been returned from Republican U.S. House districts than Democrat U.S. House districts. (Virginia does not register voters by party, so this metric serves as the closest proxy for party strength in early voting.)

A last-minute redistricting push from Democrats has tossed another wild card into the race. After 65 percent of Virginia voters just approved moving to an independent redistricting commission in 2020, Democrats – at the behest of national party leaders – are now aiming to overturn that constitutional amendment and gerrymander Republicans into a permanent minority. That may not play well even with Democrats, most of whom supported the anti-gerrymandering amendment.

It’s clear that Republicans have all the momentum in the race. The biggest remaining question is whether that will be enough to overcome the polling gap that opened up earlier this summer and boost the GOP candidates over the top by next Tuesday.

New Jersey – Can Ciattarelli pull off a stunner?

While Virginia’s gubernatorial battle has gotten most of the attention nationally, Republican Jack Ciattarelli may actually be in a better position to pull off a shocking upset in New Jersey, where he’s facing off against former Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

Sherrill enjoyed a 9.3-point advantage in the RCP average as recently as early September, but that lead has now collapsed to 4.1 points. Ciattarelli has hammered Sherrill over her support for Democrat policies that have led New Jersey to have one of the highest costs of living in the nation, along with her support for radical gender ideology and allowing men to compete in women’s sports. The Ciattarelli campaign has smartly portrayed Sherrill as an extension of term-limited incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, who is deeply unpopular in the state and nearly lost to Ciattarelli four years ago.

With a week to go, New Jersey is still very much in play. Ciattarelli undoubtedly has a serious hurdle to overcome given the state’s deep blue tint, but the mere fact that the race is still undecided is an ominous sign for Democrats.

New York – Get ready for Comrade Mamdani

Self-described socialist Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York City Democrat mayoral primary was the political shocker of the year so far. But a Mamdani victory next week should be anything but surprising.

In the latest RCP average, Mamdani leads comfortably at 46.4 percent, followed by ex-Governor Andrew Cuomo at 30.6 percent and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 15 percent. Despite a barrage of criticism over his openly Marxist policy proposals, past attacks on law enforcement, and a history of antisemitic remarks, Mamdani’s lead has remained steady throughout the summer and fall.

Some Republicans and moderate Democrats have pushed Sliwa to drop out of the race and endorse Cuomo, hoping that a united anti-Mamdani front can defeat him. But Sliwa has steadfastly refused to withdraw, and it remains in doubt whether enough of his voters could be convinced to vote for Cuomo to make a difference.

Barring a major polling error, it appears likely that Mamdani will win comfortably next week, and America’s largest city will launch a new experiment in openly socialist governance. The fallout here could have national implications, as major companies have already hinted that they would look to exit the city if Mamdani moves forward with many of his policy proposals.

California – Democrat redistricting scheme looks to get green light from voters

In 2008, California voters approved a ballot initiative placing responsibility for redistricting in the hands of a supposedly nonpartisan commission (in reality, California’s maps still favored Democrats). But now, Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom and national Democrat power brokers appear to be on the cusp of a major victory with Prop 50, which authorizes changes to the state’s congressional maps that will heavily favor Democrats.

In the most recent poll from Emerson College, 57 percent of likely voters said they support Prop 50, while just 37 percent oppose it and six percent were undecided. That’s well outside the poll’s 3.2 percent margin of error and provides a strong indication that Prop 50 is likely to pass.

That result would be a major defeat for anti-gerrymandering advocates and would escalate the ongoing redistricting battle between red and blue states. Republicans have maintained that new maps in states like Texas are necessary to offset Democrats’ advantage from counting illegal aliens in their census numbers.

Democrats hope to gain up to five new seats in California by redrawing the state’s congressional map. Currently, Democrats hold a 43-9 advantage in U.S. House seats – already a disproportionate advantage given that President Donald Trump won 38 percent of the vote in California last year, but Republicans control just 18 percent of U.S. House seats in the state.

Following an action-packed summer and fall, campaign season is now in the final home stretch. After one more week of campaigning, it will be time to tally the votes and take stock of the new political landscape the country finds itself in.

B.C. Brutus is the pen name of a writer with previous experience in the legislative and executive branches.