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The Only Solution to the War in Ukraine Is on the Battlefield

Posted on Wednesday, June 1, 2022
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by Daniel Berman
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AMAC Exclusive – By Daniel Berman

Putin War in Ukraine

The War in Ukraine just entered its fourth month. Gone are the dark days of February, when Russian forces seemed to be on the verge of occupying Kyiv, and yet so, too, the Western unity forged in the face of Russian aggression seems gone. This is most evident in a growing gulf between the governments of France and Germany on the one hand, which seem to be increasingly embracing a policy of pressuring for a cease-fire even if it means sacrificing Ukrainian territory, and Britain, Poland, and the Baltic States on the other, which remain committed to Ukraine’s cause. The United States’ position is less clear.

Nominally, the Biden administration remains committed to a Ukrainian victory, but in further evidence that Joe Biden does not lead his party, many of the most prominent voices of the center-left establishment have begun singing a different tune. They are echoing the calls by France and Germany for a recognition that “victory” is either too dangerous or difficult to achieve and that the United States and Ukraine would be best off recognizing this and pressing for concessions.

It is telling that these calls came from two such mutually antagonistic elements of the establishment as Henry Kissinger and the New York Times Editorial Board. Kissinger and the Times did battle for much of the 1970s over Vietnam, Detente, Chile, Angola, and Africa, with the paper denouncing Kissinger’s realpolitik. Yet when it comes to Ukraine, they are now on the same page.

In Davos, the 99-year-old Kissinger warned that Russia was being isolated from the West, arguing that “Parties should be brought to peace talks within the next two months. Ukraine should’ve been a bridge between Europe and Russia, but now, as the relationships are reshaped, we may enter a space where the dividing line is redrawn, and Russia is entirely isolated.” His words were echoed by the editorial board of the Times, which on May 19th published an editorial entitled “The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready.”

The Times proclaimed that “in the end, it is still not in America’s best interest to plunge into an all-out war with Russia, even if a negotiated peace may require Ukraine to make some hard decisions.” suggesting that indefinite support for Ukraine is not a given and that the dangers of a confrontation between the United States and Russia are real.

The flaw with this sort of “Realism” is that it is not particularly realistic. Before the war, it was quite easy to acknowledge that any Russian government would feel offended by the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO. Yet suggesting that war could easily have been avoided had Ukraine merely pledged not to join the alliance or for a U.S. President to make such a promise is to depart from realism into the realm of fantasy. Any promise made by a Ukrainian government could have been repudiated by its successor, which would mean Russia would need to maintain a constant threat of force to deter Ukrainian voters from reconsidering the arrangement every election.

In turn, those constant Russian threats would incentivize Ukraine to arm itself to resist repeated Russian invasion threats, which would leave Russia with the choice between invading before Ukraine could arm itself or allowing it to build up defenses, an unpalatable scenario for Russian leaders. The same flaws applied to a promise by a U.S. President. If a U.S. president pledged to reject any appeals by Ukraine to join NATO, it is certain that plenty of Senators from both the opposing party and the president’s own party would repudiate it, perhaps even flying to Kyiv to do so and pledge to reverse it later. It is hard to believe that if Donald Trump had made the compromises Mearsheimer or Kissinger called for, Democrats would not have accused him of selling out to Putin, and figures like Lindsey Graham might have joined in.

The fact is that while Russia has real grievances when it comes to the Ukraine situation, unilateral concessions without resolving the underlying problem – which is a Russian government that defines the West as an enemy geopolitically and culturally – would have exacerbated rather than defused the situation. The same is true of territorial or political concessions now.

Let’s say that Kissinger and German Chancellor Scholz, and the NYT Editorial Board get their way. Biden pressures both sides into agreeing to a cease-fire in which Russia withdraws, and Ukraine agrees not to attack the disputed territories in the Donbas and Crimea prior to February 24th. Instantly issues arise. Russia will suggest that any recognition of the Donbas applies to the entire administrative boundaries, 45% of which Kyiv still controls. They may use this as an excuse not to withdraw from other areas. Kyiv will reject this. 

Even assuming territorial disputes could be resolved, the issue remains of Ukraine’s orientation. Ukraine will not simply trust that since the Russians have agreed to stop, for now, they will not start advancing again. They clearly had their eyes on Kyiv, and Putin has called Ukraine a fake nation run by Nazis. Ukraine will, without a doubt, seek to build up its forces, including advanced anti-air weapons and long-range missiles. Even if Russia were satisfied with its gains, which there is no reason to believe they would be given they clearly sought to take Kyiv early on, Russia would be faced with exactly the situation Kissinger and Mearsheimer highlighted: a hostile, Western-aligned Ukraine on their border rapidly arming.

Ultimately, what the realists miss is that even if this war does end in a territorial outcome that leaves Crimea in Russian hands or in some other way differs from whatever a “Ukrainian victory” looks like, this war was triggered by an unstable balance of power. That unstable balance could only be restored on the battlefield. The reason Russia may be willing to forgo demanding Kyiv in exchange for the Donbas or Crimea, as Kissinger or the NYT suggest, is not because Putin is reasonable but because he cannot get Kyiv and was militarily defeated there. Had he captured it on February 26th, this would not be a compromise.

For Russia, this war is about clarifying its strength to Ukraine and its neighbors. More important than territory was Putin demonstrating to the Ukrainians that if Russia wanted something, NATO could not stop Russia from taking it. Only by proving this point could Putin, in his view, undermine the appeal of NATO to Ukraine, which was based on the belief NATO membership meant invulnerability to Russian pressure. This objective is all the more important, with Sweden and Finland looking to join NATO.

There is only one way to arrive at a territorial settlement of this war. It will continue until Putin takes enough territory that he is satisfied or until he is unable to take any territory at all. Both outcomes will be sped up by maximizing Ukraine’s ability to resist. Any sign of weakness or abandoning Ukraine will tell Putin that if he holds out for more, Western support will decrease. It makes him less likely to agree to any sort of settlement.

This outbreak of Realism in the United States and Europe is based on wishful thinking. The true realist approach is to recognize that only one man, Vladimir Putin, will decide when this war ends, and his decision will be determined solely by the situation on the battlefield. The only way for anyone to influence that is to control the battlefield.

Daniel Berman is a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics. He also writes as Daniel Roman.   

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Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

Keep sending them arms, Intel & supplies.
Mid range missiles, armed drones,
fighter bombers

Kristine L Kaiser
Kristine L Kaiser
2 years ago

The war was triggered by the presence of many biolabs, plans to spread pathogens via migratory birds or other clandestine means, and the mistreatment for many years of ethnic Russians. Remember also that in Dec 2020 the US and Ukraine were the only members of the UN voting against the resolution against “glorifying” the Nazis.

Edward Irvin
Edward Irvin
2 years ago

Another Afganistan screw-up in the making. The fake Biden needs removed along with all the anti-American cronies he put in place. Zelensky is an actor we all know that. All this game supports is the War Machine business at the sacrafise of young Russian and Ukranian soldiers.

PaulE
PaulE
2 years ago

As in the early days of Hitler’s amassing territory across Europe, there are politicians and so-called “experts” that think appeasement will get the bully to back down and settle for less as a long-term solution. That tactic very rarely works for long however, as the bully always comes back, after seeing the weakness and lack of will on the other side and wants more. Europe learned that lesson the hard way in WWII and it seems many of the current Western European leaders of today are eager to repeat that folly yet again. Just give Putin whatever he wants and hope he goes away, and everything can go back to the way things were in Berlin, Paris and Rome. Their attitude is to h*ll with the Ukrainians or any other Eastern European country they have to hand over to Putin, as long as they can get back to “business as usual”. The only concern of these Western European leaders is to desperately avoid any accountability or consequences for their own bad decisions, via so-called ruinous climate change policies of the last decade, that have put all their countries at the mercy of being overwhelmingly dependent on Russia for their energy needs and caused so much economic damage to their own countries.

I do NOT expect Biden to supply the kind of airplanes or long-range artillery and missies that would level the playing field to the Ukrainians, as he does NOT want them to win. He never has as evidenced by how he has addressed the issue since Putin started amassing troops and weapons along the Ukrainian border. Biden will only supply the bare minimum to keep the fight going for a while.

William C Smith
William C Smith
2 years ago

The Ukrainians must first beat the invaders on the battlefield. The only point of discussion is the unconditioinal surrender of Putin, Lavrov and all the individuals who supported and made possible their foreign aggressions, return of and departure of all invading troops from occupied territories, Crimea and the Georgian States, a public trial and hangings with refreshments served.

Veteran
Veteran
2 years ago

The real purpose of this war was to speed up the bankruptcy, and destruction of our country. Joe Shmoe, Obama, the WEF, Putin, and Xi Jinping all knew that the price of oil would spike; that a U.S. already hurting from Biden’s inflation via monetization of debt was going to hurt even more if China stopped imports at their harbors from leaving China under the blanket of “Pandemic Protocol”. They knew that a country already suffering from “supply chain issues” because of Biden’s support for the dock workers union that resists harbor modernization and automation, is going to suffer even more when gas prices spike, and food delivery, aside from farmers who are already being bought out by Gates, Blackrock, and the CCP as new mega agricultural landowners and forced out of farming not to be replaced. They knew that taking out the largest baby formula plant via FDA regulations would cause shortages in one of the “richest” (except for our astronomical debt) countries of the world. They knew that a country militarily weakened by demented leadership, and that no longer produces any significant amount of oil would no longer be able to remain as the exchange currency for the trade in oil with the petrodollar. That when the U.S, loses this status as the leading factor in the oil trade our ability to borrow more money would cease to exist, that the trillion dollar federal budgets, the incurred debt, the foreign aid for the war would worsen that debt and the aid in military hardware further hollow out our military defense. They all knew, and they agreed that the one thing they all had in common was they wanted our country gone because it stood in the way of their own plans, and the plans for the dystopian new world order, one world, big authoritarian surveillance state facist/communist hybrid global government that rules over millions of slave subjects, not citizens. Under whose leadership they are all delusional about, the WEF believes it’s them, Putin thinks it’s him, Xi Jinping believes it will be his belt and road China, the UN and WHO and Biden/Obama believe it will be them, in any case they all agreed that they didn’t want it to be the United States of America, because of the pesky freedom of religion and belief and faith in God with whom come morals, ethics, the knowledge of right and wrong, and the to them unacceptable concept of freedom, sovereignty of the nation state, self-determination, free elections, and the whole Constitution, and Bill of Rights. All criminals hate the very thought that cops, the law, and the knowledge of right, and wrong exist; therefore they promote everything that countermands the very idea. The people in Ukraine are suffering caught in between the globalist interests, the best way to end this war is not on the battlefield but to remove the few billionaire corporate globalists, and delusional politicians whose megalomaniacal dystopian dreams threaten the lives of billions of normal humans, from office and their positions of power. The time for empires, regional, or global has come and gone. A truly enlightened world would reject organizations that are like dinosaurs too big to fail, or in truth too big to live without being the cause of global disaster. The same goes for big government, a government so big that it can take care of everything is big enough to destroy everything. Government is best when it is small, close to home, and much less expensive, as well as more responsive because citizens can show their dissatisfaction much faster, and up close and personal in daily contact than when government is centralized, far away, and possibly even on another continent if it happens to be global. The founders experienced just that and decided it wasn’t worth keeping..

Roll the dice
Roll the dice
2 years ago

Military STRONG buildup on all of the borders close to Russia. All nations countries especially USA increase military armament, mightily. When asked, say its a military exercise.

betaraybill1
betaraybill1
2 years ago

Are you out of your mind???? Lose American blood for that azzhat Zelensky??? Ukraine ( besides the USA) is the most corrupt Government on earth. They are all in along with the DNC, Democratic Socialist, the EU, Hollywood, Soros, Scwaub, WEF/NWO and AARP…. WTF AMAC????? You now support wokeism…. Give Russia land bridge, keep Ukraine out of NATO…. war over… then prosecute Zelensky the extortioner and and anybody else promoting this garbage.

Richard Minetti
Richard Minetti
2 years ago

The solution to the war in Ukraine is the anialation of Putin and those in Russia, or anywhere else, that thinks as he does!!

tika
tika
2 years ago

the only solution, huh? idiot.

Tim Toroian
Tim Toroian
2 years ago

If we had armed Ukraine BEFORE the war we might not be having the current conversations. Especially with aircraft and Hinds.

Dee
Dee
2 years ago

The solution in Ukraine is for the U.S. to get the hell out of Ukraine. But,.no can do. Ukraine is the swampy’s money laundering haven. The guise of sending money to Ukraine as an aid is just a ploy. Ukraine has been the center of money laundering for many of the leaders in this country (aka mostly the Democrats). Billions of US dollars have been laundered through Ukraine. With the collusion of the liberal media nothing is being said about it. Zelinsky is the puppet of the globalist. When the swamp with the liberal media are in tandem with each other about Ukraine, think of the opposite.

Pete from St Pete
Pete from St Pete
2 years ago

Any so called cease fire while Putin or his ilk run Russia will only lead to the total defeat of the Ukraine. For Americans to support Ukrainian suicide is tantamount to treason.

D.P.
D.P.
2 years ago

The hurried I go the behinder I get……..once again, as a mess rises between nations, America seems to be drawn in like gullible twits. While we should support Ukraine with humanitarian aid and perhaps some limited military provision….this has been and remains a problem for the Europeans…..while I am no isolationist, I find the more we get involved in other nations problems, the more we get suckered into some crisis that costs us…….in treasure and lives. The present administration has failed across the board when it comes to international savvy……and everyone knows it……and anyone who chooses will take advantage of our useless,gutless leaders as they drag this Republic into the abyss. I am pretty well convinced there is more going on behind the scenes with the Bidens and their “family” business, especially in Ukraine. The government of Ukraine is no band of angels and they have their own internal conflict to deal with……and that’s none of our concern…..except that the Bidens are involved along the way. If Putin wants Ukraine, then he will have to continue the fight but we need not have a hand in the game…..but we do….The Bidens.

Casscowgirl
Casscowgirl
2 years ago

I remember how calm the U.S. was when there were nukes in Cuba. /sarcasm. When NATO goes into a country, such as Ukraine, they install weapons systems, and since NATO exists to keep Russia in check, you are now installing weapons closer to Russia than Cuba was to the US, and yet the Biden regime don’t think Russia will respond? Never mine the promise made to Russia in 1990 with the reunification of Germany that NATO would not move one inch further east. That’s been broken many times.
Then you get into the CIA run bio-weapons labs in the Ukraine, how many of those are there? Around 30 I think. Russia hasn’t watched how things were handled with the US being associated with the Covid-19 fiasco? Since the CIA arranged the color revolution in 2014 they’ve been there. Watch Victoria Nuland’s congressional testimony. She was the one passing out donuts to the revolutionaries in 2014, there is video of it. Now seeing the film clips in 2022, they look like antifa did in America the last couple of years. Parts of eastern Ukraine are ethnically Russian, but they aren’t allowed to speak Russian now. I’m sure they appreciate that as much as we would if we weren’t allowed to speak English. Let the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine go back to Russia, that’s what the people there VOTED to do. Destroy the bio-weapons labs that Putin hasn’t destroyed yet.
Putin has offered to export food to ease the coming famine, if we will ease some sanctions. Who is extending a hand in peace? Quarter says Biden won’t do it, even to save lives in a famine. He’s still sending all the baby formula to the border, right?
Last thing, Russia is probably pulling out of the WHO, America submitted the amendments to cede national sovereignty to the WHO.
Which government is looking out for it’s people.
It has NOTHING to do with what anyone supports or who they support, it’s just things the corporate media doesn’t discuss much.

BAE
BAE
2 years ago

Biden needs Putin; who else is Biden going to blame everything on? Mr. Biden is so out of touch with the American people. Is he American?

Morbious
Morbious
2 years ago

The wild card is russian morale at home and in the military. Isnt it at least possible that putski would prefer to cut his losses with a face saving armistice? Remember too that we have a puppet for chief executive. Everyone knows this. The question becomes what do his svengalis have in mind. Such is the lefts hatred for this country that it seems possible they might opt for a nuc exchange. Even a limited one would destroy our economy and send us back to the 19th century, but that seems to be their goal in terms of energy useage.

BACKWOODS
BACKWOODS
2 years ago

More and more paper trails are discovered in how the Biden Crime family was involved in the funding of bioweapons labs in Ukraine. This is more about destroying evidence and laundering more money through Ukraine. This selected clown in the White House is a criminal and needs removed!
MSM is also deep state controlled so pay attention to where you get your information and do your own research.

Andrew P
Andrew P
2 years ago

The war is likely to continue until Putin grabs all of Donbas and then uses a few nukes to signal to Ukraine’s supporters that now is the time for a cease fire at current lines. And that is what is likely to happen – a cease fire leaving Russia the victor.

Aughenbaugh
Aughenbaugh
2 years ago

The NYT, France and Germany all want Ukraine to quickly give Russia what they now want and then they can go back to importing Russia energy, fertilizer and grain. But it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. Ukraine isn’t winning at this point but it’s fighting, and it definitely isn’t losing. Russia has been redefining the word winning since being kicked out of Ukraine’s two largest cities. And regardless of how they spin it they definitely aren’t winning.
In fact, they’re having trouble consolidating territory that their so called allies claim that they already conquered 2014. For this we can thank Ukraine’s leadership, who have outmaneuvered Russia and repositioned the fighting from Ukraine’s heartland to the eastern border with Russia. Sadly, Ukraine is suffering a lot of dead and wounded military personnel and civilians, but by all measures they’re holding up better than Russia.

Bill on the Hill
Bill on the Hill
2 years ago

Finally a story on the very subject matter I’ve been spouting off about for a couple of weeks now.
Although I don’t agree with everything the author is writing here, at least we are off to a good start on a subject that ultimately will mean a compromise or perhaps a truce between the ( 2 ) aggrieved parties. I do want to mention, importantly, the UN needs to stay out of this…America never should have got involved in this conflict in the first place. If possible, withhold the $40 billion in military aid to Ukraine all together…Perhaps secure our own southern border with those American taxpayer funds…
NATO needs to back off, Putin is fully aware of NATO’s ambitions with respect to what they did under Bill Clinton back in the mid 90’s during the Serbia conflict. Putin does not & will not allow NATO to park themselves at her border, it isn’t going to happen, our current hapless administration better come to this reality before they do get us into a needless conflict with Russia…
The powers to be can incentivize Putin to come to terms with Ukraine that both leaders can live with & then agree to drop the SWIFT sanctions against Russia because they are hurting the EU & other nations in that sphere as long as they are in place & Russia with her commodity based economy, will continue to sell their products the world over, ironically, they are doing that right this moment in either case, The Black Sea lanes are a constant flow of commerce coming into & out of Russia as I write this, very little if any reporting on this. At this moment Russia has the strongest economy in the entire region as I find that quite strange since MSM has been reporting that Russia is losing the war from the very beginning, all 100% PROPAGANDA…Shame on MSM & the conservative news outlets…
Funny how this happens when it doesn’t fit their narrative…
Putin has held all the cards from the very beginning & he has highlighted in spades just how weak & feckless the current fake administration is in our country…
Bill… :~)

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