AMAC Exclusive-By Daniel Roman
The war in Ukraine is still raging, but one loser is now clear: Russian prestige. Unlike the loss of men, material, or economic prosperity, all of which Vladimir Putin likely can weather, a loss of prestige is potentially fatal to a leader. The war, rather than restoring Russian prestige, now seems likely to undermine it, and that may be what costs Putin his position.
Beyond concerns about NATO expansion, Vladimir Putin launched this war to restore the prestige of Russia. It was an effort to erase the humiliating image of Russia which had emerged in the 1990s (an image which was encouraged by Obama and Biden’s treatment of Russia as a third-rate power). A victory over Ukraine, an American and Western ally, would have shown Russians and the world that Russia mattered. A defeat was, at the time, unthinkable – and not just by the Kremlin. At the onset of the conflict it was widely viewed that a Russian victory, while likely to be of limited value in resolving Russia’s real problems, was probable.
Instead, to quote Boris Yeltsin’s Prime Minister Viktor Cherynomyrdin during the 1990s when the once-great power seemed unable to feed or clothe its own people, “we wanted the best, but it turned out like always.”
In Ukraine, Putin wished to “solve” the threat posed by NATO expansion and the refusal of the West to cede Russia a sphere of influence. To do that, he needed to demonstrate that Russia was a force to be reckoned with, one whose desires and power had to be taken into account. Rather than proving that point, the last eight weeks have proven nearly the opposite.
Nothing illustrates this more than the farce which followed the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet this past week. At 12,490 tons, the Moskva is the largest warship to be lost in combat since the Second World War, narrowly outpacing the Argentine battle cruiser General Belgrano which was torpedoed by a British submarine during the Falklands war. The Ukrainians claim to have successfully hit it with two missiles after distracting its air defense system with a drone. Russia initially insisted that it caught fire due to an accidental ammunition explosion and the ship was on its way to Sebastopol for repairs, before conceding, after twenty-four hours, that it had sunk.
The sinking of the Moskva is not merely a loss of military capacity, but of prestige, which is why even if Russia is able to emerge from this conflict with control of some additional wasteland in Ukraine’s East and a million resentful pensioners, Russia will be less secure, with Russians having less faith in themselves, and Russian military prowess scoffed at not just by enemies but by “friends” in China and Iran.
The sinking represented a further irony for Putin who began his career with a similar disaster. In the summer of 2000, the Kursk, a Russian nuclear-powered submarine, sank in an accident in the Barents sea. Putin’s government, then newly installed, refused repeated Western offers of help, denying that anything was wrong, while the crew suffocated. Putin’s refusal to return from vacation in Sochi led to widespread mockery and attacks from Russia’s then independent media, helping trigger the first of a series of crackdowns which would turn Russia’s nascent democracy into the authoritarian dystopia it is today. Putin cannot help but remember the Kursk, and people all over Russia will recall it as well.
Much speculation has occurred in the Western press about the prospects of “regime change” arising from within Russia. In all likelihood, there was never much prospect that Putin would ever be toppled for launching the war. After all, governments have rarely fallen because a war was morally unpopular. Even the U.S. Invasion of Iraq in 2003 was highly popular at the time. For all of the brutality involved in the conduct of the war in Ukraine, the grievances behind it are popular in Russia, and most Russians, even those who may not have wished for this war, now believe that they “are all in this together.”
However, while governments may not have problems in starting wars, they can rapidly find themselves in trouble for failing to win them. Voters and nonvoters (in authoritarian states) evaluate governments based on their performance, and the most critical test is the ability to defend the state. Much can be forgiven in terms of a failure to provide goods or services as long as the money was going toward national defense. On the other hand, if it looks like the government neglected that, the charge becomes not negligence but treason.
The trigger for the overthrow of Czar Nicholas II was a speech in the Duma by the conservative deputy Pavel Milyiukov in which he cited one example after another of incompetence in Russia’s WWI effort. From the removal of competent officers at the behest of Rasputin and the Empress, to the failure to supply ammunition or food to troops, to rampant corruption, Milyiukov closed each example with the rhetorical question “Is it stupidity or treason?” The implication was it no longer made a difference. Stupidity on such a scale during war time amounted to treason.
Russian boys are dying by the thousands if not the tens of thousands. Russian warships with crews of 500 are sinking. Russia controls less territory after two months than it did after one month. Troops lack food, ammunition, or basic air support. Russian mothers are not likely to rise up in outrage at Putin over the treatment of Ukrainians who are shooting at their sons with the support of Westerners who are currently “canceling” Russia and are responsible for their credit cards not working. But they are likely to blame Putin for their sons dying because Russian troops ran out of fuel, lacked artillery support, or were thrown forward in a frontal assault.
Putin can survive the hatred of the West, sanctions, and some limited military setbacks. What he cannot survive is the perception of incompetence and stupidity on the part of his government, which amounts to charges of betrayal of Russia. Machiavelli said it was better to be feared than loved. Putin is in danger of making Russia hated, mocked, and unfeared. And it is that which may make Russians turn their ire on him.
Daniel Roman is the pen name of a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics.
IMO, Putin should get more that a loss of power! He is the image of Satan, Hitler, Genghis Kahn, etc.
Need more protests in Russia to tip Russian stance
I use to kind of like putin but he has completely screwed up. This ukraine war is stupid in every aspect of thinking.
I hope the Russians arrest him and put him to deaths right after the shoot his daughter right in front of him.
there needs to be some sort of big punishment for killing a million people.
Much like faucit, biden, obama, soros, and gates should be punished to funding the development of covid.
The author makes the fatal mistake of thinking the people of Russia have any real say in their leadership. Look at the new laws being enacted to make it a crime to say anything bad about the Russian government. Look at the mass arrests. Look at people just being vanished off the streets by the FSB. Russia is a police state that pretends it is something else to the western world. As long as the senior military officials continue to be on Putin’s payroll, he’s not going anywhere.
The Russian people know that their media is now under government control ( direct and/or indirect ) and therefore they know that they are not getting the full story . And, not getting the full story , means they’re not getting the truth . Half of a story is a lie by omission . To understand this , all you have to do is tune into CNN or MSDNC . This is why many Americans are so confused . The same phenomenon is also true in Russia . I think the Russian people are a great people . But they have had poor governments for a very very long time . The simple fact of the matter is , Mr. Putin , himself , on his own , wants to create a new Russian empire . In an attempt to justify his invasion of Ukraine in the minds of the Russian people , he claims that Ukraine is part of Russia that it is run by Nazis . But he does not tell the Russian people that he simply wants to be an emperor , a new king , a new czar . And , that he wants to divvy up Ukraine’s mineral wealth with his oligarchs . Putin is greedy . He is estimated to be the richest man in the world . And , apparently he wants more . I have not yet seen ANY Russians clamoring for a new emperor , a king, or a new czar . I think the Russian people just want to live in peace and in some comfort , and , were enjoying their post communist life until Putin made his move on Ukraine .
russia lost what little prestige it’s had since 1917 decades ago. pootin’ is just democrat lackey
This might mean something if happening to a US politician domestically, but in Russia? Not so much.
Oh, and BTW – anyone remember the Cuban Missile Crisis and how Kennedy had his hovering finger over the nuclear button? Such short memories we have. And what about how we screwed the pooch in the Bay of Pigs? Biden and the EU happy talked Ukraine to where it is today. It would never have happened under Trump.
… trouble is, Putin’s a spy, not a general. Russia’s military was caught with its pants down, wholly unprepared for any kind of major offensive. Putin was caught wholly unaware his military readiness was nowhere near where it needed to be. I have a feeling, behind the scenes, heads are rolling because of it. I suspect, behind the scenes, Putin’s grabbing corrupt military supply officers by the scruff, dragging them out behind the barn, flogging the snot out of them.
The questions that remains unanswered: what will Putin do to save face? Does he have anything to lose and will that guide his future actions? Where does the average Russian stand on this issue? How does his military hierarchy stand on this situation? Where does the Russian oligarchy stand on this situation. Many variables still in play.
I’m interested in knowing how effective the West’s communications to the mom’s in Russia about the truth is proceeding. Is the message getting through? It is not just the mothers (+ wives, sisters, aunts and cousins) of the dead and wounded; it is also about the young men (and women?) that are at risk of death or injuries. That message must be spread in Russia.
Likewise, what subversive and destructive activities are the Ukrainians taking in Russia? Not killing Russians, but destroying infrastructure so the Russian people “feel” what is going on and the war is directly impacting them. Blowing-up rail lines, power stations, fuel depots (the smoke can be seen for hundreds of mile!) and bridges will send a direct message to the Russian people and perhaps spur them to action.
I hope the Ukraine sends a steady and regular barrage of missiles and artillery shells into western Russia. At least that part of the country will see and feel first hand the Russian military’s failures.
How about sinking more Russian ships?. Two is not enough! Limpid mines delivered by Ukrainian Commados would seem to be in order. Get ships on the eastern coast (Vladivostok area) too!
Everything written in this article is from a “western” perspective. First, yes the Russian people can and do view western media reports and are allowed open dialogue. Second, and in regard to the previously mentioned topic, Putins support in polls is north of 80%, and before someone says, “but thats from misleading Russian polling firms”, uh no, its from both Russian and western polling firms.
Thirdly regards the perceived loss of prestige. This may be so among those in the west but we have to at some point come to terms with the fact that the “west” does not comprise the majority of the globe. This is reflected by the numerous countries that have refused to sanction Russia over the Ukraine conflict. Many people not being infused 24/7 with the usual mainstream media propaganda, can see Russias point. As in, “put the shoe on the other foot” perspective. Prior to the invasion there was a LOT of talk, perhaps merely provocation by the west, of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO……this would mean military bases and the like. Coupled with this you had the failed comedian “Elinksy” (the letter Z is now non PC you see), saying that Ukraine needed nuclear weapons to defend themselves from the evil Russia. Now, what if the old WARSAW pact was considering stationing armed military bases, perhaps armed with nuclear weapons, in say……Mexico? What would be the response of the United States and/or NATO??
Everyone needs to recall that the same news organizations that for a time managed to elevate Dr. Fauci to deity status are the same people now shoving questionable narratives down our throats regarding the Ukraine issue. It took a while to see the truth about Fauci, lets pray to God we don’t endure a VERY short WW III over this new questionable at best, narrative.
Unless they’re brain dead, they’ve got to be head scratching at the Pentagon. If Ukraine can wipe out Russia’s flagship, with a lousy mobile launched Neptune missile volley? Think what communist China can do. Sooner than later, Americas’ taxpayers’ need an honest, top-down naval reassessment of the vulnerability and obsolescence of our aircraft carrier fleet. I think Taiwan and South Korea are rife for the taking. I don’t see any possible way America could defend Taiwan, much less South Korea, not without losing four aircraft carrier groups.
Putin has an 83% approval rating and he is winning the war. He’s not going anywhere. And even if he did, his replacement would be more of a hardliner. That is just a fact.
Ukraine Azov have killed 14,000 Russian-Ukrainians since the US led coup in 2014. Intelligent people know this history. Russia tired to make peace with Ukraine under fair terms. Puppet Zelenskyy failed. Now Russia is taking back Ukraine territory by territory and the citizens there are voting for it. So it’s official.
Don’t worry about Zelenskyy. He’ll be back in high heels doing what he does best in no time.
IMO, Putin should get more that a loss of power! He is the image of Satan, Hitler, Genghis Kahn, etc.
Need more protests in Russia to tip Russian stance
I use to kind of like putin but he has completely screwed up. This ukraine war is stupid in every aspect of thinking.
I hope the Russians arrest him and put him to deaths right after the shoot his daughter right in front of him.
there needs to be some sort of big punishment for killing a million people.
Much like faucit, biden, obama, soros, and gates should be punished to funding the development of covid.
The author makes the fatal mistake of thinking the people of Russia have any real say in their leadership. Look at the new laws being enacted to make it a crime to say anything bad about the Russian government. Look at the mass arrests. Look at people just being vanished off the streets by the FSB. Russia is a police state that pretends it is something else to the western world. As long as the senior military officials continue to be on Putin’s payroll, he’s not going anywhere.
The Russian people know that their media is now under government control ( direct and/or indirect ) and therefore they know that they are not getting the full story . And, not getting the full story , means they’re not getting the truth . Half of a story is a lie by omission . To understand this , all you have to do is tune into CNN or MSDNC . This is why many Americans are so confused . The same phenomenon is also true in Russia . I think the Russian people are a great people . But they have had poor governments for a very very long time . The simple fact of the matter is , Mr. Putin , himself , on his own , wants to create a new Russian empire . In an attempt to justify his invasion of Ukraine in the minds of the Russian people , he claims that Ukraine is part of Russia that it is run by Nazis . But he does not tell the Russian people that he simply wants to be an emperor , a new king , a new czar . And , that he wants to divvy up Ukraine’s mineral wealth with his oligarchs . Putin is greedy . He is estimated to be the richest man in the world . And , apparently he wants more . I have not yet seen ANY Russians clamoring for a new emperor , a king, or a new czar . I think the Russian people just want to live in peace and in some comfort , and , were enjoying their post communist life until Putin made his move on Ukraine .
russia lost what little prestige it’s had since 1917 decades ago. pootin’ is just democrat lackey
This might mean something if happening to a US politician domestically, but in Russia? Not so much.
Oh, and BTW – anyone remember the Cuban Missile Crisis and how Kennedy had his hovering finger over the nuclear button? Such short memories we have. And what about how we screwed the pooch in the Bay of Pigs? Biden and the EU happy talked Ukraine to where it is today. It would never have happened under Trump.
… trouble is, Putin’s a spy, not a general. Russia’s military was caught with its pants down, wholly unprepared for any kind of major offensive. Putin was caught wholly unaware his military readiness was nowhere near where it needed to be. I have a feeling, behind the scenes, heads are rolling because of it. I suspect, behind the scenes, Putin’s grabbing corrupt military supply officers by the scruff, dragging them out behind the barn, flogging the snot out of them.
The questions that remains unanswered: what will Putin do to save face? Does he have anything to lose and will that guide his future actions? Where does the average Russian stand on this issue? How does his military hierarchy stand on this situation? Where does the Russian oligarchy stand on this situation. Many variables still in play.
I’m interested in knowing how effective the West’s communications to the mom’s in Russia about the truth is proceeding. Is the message getting through? It is not just the mothers (+ wives, sisters, aunts and cousins) of the dead and wounded; it is also about the young men (and women?) that are at risk of death or injuries. That message must be spread in Russia.
Likewise, what subversive and destructive activities are the Ukrainians taking in Russia? Not killing Russians, but destroying infrastructure so the Russian people “feel” what is going on and the war is directly impacting them. Blowing-up rail lines, power stations, fuel depots (the smoke can be seen for hundreds of mile!) and bridges will send a direct message to the Russian people and perhaps spur them to action.
I hope the Ukraine sends a steady and regular barrage of missiles and artillery shells into western Russia. At least that part of the country will see and feel first hand the Russian military’s failures.
How about sinking more Russian ships?. Two is not enough! Limpid mines delivered by Ukrainian Commados would seem to be in order. Get ships on the eastern coast (Vladivostok area) too!
Everything written in this article is from a “western” perspective. First, yes the Russian people can and do view western media reports and are allowed open dialogue. Second, and in regard to the previously mentioned topic, Putins support in polls is north of 80%, and before someone says, “but thats from misleading Russian polling firms”, uh no, its from both Russian and western polling firms.
Thirdly regards the perceived loss of prestige. This may be so among those in the west but we have to at some point come to terms with the fact that the “west” does not comprise the majority of the globe. This is reflected by the numerous countries that have refused to sanction Russia over the Ukraine conflict. Many people not being infused 24/7 with the usual mainstream media propaganda, can see Russias point. As in, “put the shoe on the other foot” perspective. Prior to the invasion there was a LOT of talk, perhaps merely provocation by the west, of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO……this would mean military bases and the like. Coupled with this you had the failed comedian “Elinksy” (the letter Z is now non PC you see), saying that Ukraine needed nuclear weapons to defend themselves from the evil Russia. Now, what if the old WARSAW pact was considering stationing armed military bases, perhaps armed with nuclear weapons, in say……Mexico? What would be the response of the United States and/or NATO??
Everyone needs to recall that the same news organizations that for a time managed to elevate Dr. Fauci to deity status are the same people now shoving questionable narratives down our throats regarding the Ukraine issue. It took a while to see the truth about Fauci, lets pray to God we don’t endure a VERY short WW III over this new questionable at best, narrative.
Unless they’re brain dead, they’ve got to be head scratching at the Pentagon. If Ukraine can wipe out Russia’s flagship, with a lousy mobile launched Neptune missile volley? Think what communist China can do. Sooner than later, Americas’ taxpayers’ need an honest, top-down naval reassessment of the vulnerability and obsolescence of our aircraft carrier fleet. I think Taiwan and South Korea are rife for the taking. I don’t see any possible way America could defend Taiwan, much less South Korea, not without losing four aircraft carrier groups.
Putin has an 83% approval rating and he is winning the war. He’s not going anywhere. And even if he did, his replacement would be more of a hardliner. That is just a fact.
Ukraine Azov have killed 14,000 Russian-Ukrainians since the US led coup in 2014. Intelligent people know this history. Russia tired to make peace with Ukraine under fair terms. Puppet Zelenskyy failed. Now Russia is taking back Ukraine territory by territory and the citizens there are voting for it. So it’s official.
Don’t worry about Zelenskyy. He’ll be back in high heels doing what he does best in no time.