Newsline

National Security , Newsline

Does Putin Think We Won’t Shoot Back if He Sends Nukes Our Way?

Posted on Tuesday, May 10, 2022
|
by AMAC, John Grimaldi
|
44 Comments
|
Print
Putin

WASHINGTON, DC, May 9 – If war is hell, what is nuclear war? It’s nothing less than a one-time, cataclysmic, end-of-the-world event.  Well, Russia blatantly promises that they will initiate nuclear war if they don’t get their way. The out loud threats that they are making are unfathomable – nothing less than obscene insanity.  Russia has become a rogue nation under Vladimir Putin and, indeed, has the end-of-life, nuclear wherewithal to carry out such a monstrous event. We have our own formidable nuclear arsenal. So, one can only ask, why the threat? It can only be explained as a MAD we-die-they-die threat – mad for its insanity and MAD for Mutually Assured Destruction. 

How real is the threat? It’s pretty convincing, according to the Wall Street Journal and other reliable sources. The Journal published an article recently noting that Russia has successfully conducted a first test of its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. It’s capable of delivering a very large nuclear payload into our laps and those of our NATO allies. The Opinion article was authored by Seth Cropsey, founder of the Yorktown Institute. He is regarded as one of America’s leading experts on maritime and defense strategy.

In his words, “If Russia’s military situation appears dire, Mr. Putin has a dual incentive to use nuclear weapons. This is consistent with publicly stated Russian military doctrine. A nuclear attack would present Ukraine with the same choice Japan faced in 1945: surrender or be annihilated. Ukraine may not break. The haunting images from Bucha, Irpin and elsewhere demonstrate Russia’s true intentions. A Russian victory would lead to mass killings, deportation, rape and other atrocities. The Ukrainian choice won’t be between death and survival, but rather armed resistance and unarmed extermination…Nuclear use would require NATO to respond.  But a nuclear response could trigger retaliation, dragging Russia and NATO up the escalation ladder to a wider nuclear confrontation.”

Backing up Cropsey’s dire assessment are other reliable news sources as well as Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. He’s an expert in the field of “future warfare.” Davis’ take is that “any direct military intervention by NATO, even below the nuclear threshold, would almost inevitably lead to a wider NATO-Russia war, and with it, the near certainty of nuclear escalation. It’s that specter of nuclear war – as opposed to a single detonation – that constrains NATO’s responses, even in the face of Russian atrocities in Bucha and Kramatorsk. In particular, the prospect of such a war escalating to strategic nuclear exchanges and devastating the planet will be in the minds of NATO decisionmakers.”

Peter Huessy, Director of Strategic Deterrent Studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and President of his own defense consulting firm, GeoStrategic Analysis, puts the blame for this imminent threat on President Biden. He told the Gatestone Institute, “The bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan and the unwillingness to effectively support Ukraine since our 1994 guarantee and especially over the past year have led nuclear-armed enemies to ratchet up threats to the U.S. and its allies…They sense a growing American weakness.”

In the end one can only hope that Britain’s BBC was correct when it pointed out that Vladimir Putin may simply be trying to “create a sense of fear” among the U.S. and its NATO allies. The BBC quoted Dr. Mariana Budjeryn at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. She took to social media to say, “Putin is comfortable in the ‘stability-instability’ world, while the West is deterred by his nuclear bluster as if NATO’s billion-dollar deterrent is nothing but a paper tiger.”  Let’s pray that she and the BBC have got it right because Putin’s arsenal of nuclear weapons is frightening at best.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists offers this assessment of Russia’s nuclear capability: “As of early 2022, we estimate that Russia has a stockpile of approximately 4,477 nuclear warheads assigned for use by long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces, which is a slight decrease from last year. Of the stockpiled warheads, approximately 1,588 strategic warheads are deployed: about 812 on land-based ballistic missiles, about 576 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and possibly 200 at heavy bomber bases. Approximately another 977 strategic warheads are in storage, along with about 1,912 nonstrategic warheads. In addition to the military stockpile for operational forces, a large number—approximately 1,500—of retired but still largely intact warheads await dismantlement, for a total inventory of approximately 5,977 warheads”

As for the U.S. policy on the use of nuclear weapons, it does not include a “no first use” provision; we rely on a first use threat and our massive nuclear response capability to deter bad actors such as Putin. “The Obama Administration considered adopting a ‘no first use’ policy in 2016. However, both military and civilian officials opposed this change.  Some argued that a policy of calculated ambiguity provided the President with options in a crisis; others noted that the shift could undermine deterrence and stability in an uncertain security environment. Secretary of State Kerry and Secretary of Defense Carter also raised concerns that a ‘no first use’ policy could undermine the confidence and security of U.S. allies. Reports indicate that several allies also weighed in against the change in policy during the Obama Administration and again when the Biden Administration considered the possible adoption of a sole purpose policy. Author Information,” according to the Congressional Research Service.

Meanwhile, what Henry Kissinger had to say about the potential of Russia resorting to an all-out nuclear war. Kissinger, who served as United States Secretary of State and National Security Advisor under two presidents [yes, he’s still around at the age of 99], offered his insight on this matter at a recent Financial Times function in Washington DC. He has quite a history with Vladimir Putin, having had one on one meetings with him some 25 times over the past decade and a half.

“I learned his thinking. I thought he was kind of a mystic – with faith in Russian history as he perceived it…Six months ago I would not have thought he’d start a war of that scale in Europe or anywhere…how much will he continue? Or has he reached the limit of his capabilities? [W]ill he escalate by moving into the category of weapons that in 70 years have [not been used]? Or will he accept the results [of a Ukrainian victory] without resulting to weapons that could have ended [the war] with different results?  We have to think how we react to that. We can’t just accept it. It would open the world to a new world of blackmail…Every war since World War II has been fought with conventional weapons. [But] Ukraine has put an emphasis on [the possible use of] nuclear weapons…[and] the high tech countries will have to live with the consequences of their technology…If the line in nuclear weapons is crossed, it is something of a great consequence…It is not possible to ignore it or pretend it didn’t happen.”

Footnote: Anders Corr at Corr Analytics, which publishes the Journal of Political Risk, warns that the Russia’s nuclear threat is real but that Vladimir Putin is not the only bad actor we need to keep an eye on.  It’s worse than we thought. It’s Corr’s educated guess, as he put it in an alarming new opinion article in the Epoch Times: “Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are toying with the offensive use of nuclear weapons rather than seeing them as a defensive deterrent. The American allies they target, including Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea, and Israel, should strengthen their nuclear defenses in response.”

Share this article:
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
44 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Boz
Boz
2 years ago

We, The People, would shoot back. Biden wiII do nothing but grovel.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
2 years ago

All allies have BUT weve nothing to OUR arsenal

susabella
susabella
2 years ago

With Biden in charge, he would probably offer social programs instead, since they have worked so well in our big, violent, homeless entrenched cities.

Dan W.
Dan W.
2 years ago

Let’s not get too far over our skis Grimaldi.

Even Russia isn’t stupid enough to start something of this magnitude where they don’t fully control the outcome.

Richard C..
Richard C..
2 years ago

It’s called MAD for a reason. It’s insane to even contemplate the use of nuclear weapons. With that said, I hope Putin is trying to bluff his way into letting Russia keep the ground they’ve taken so far in this conflict, and not actually have plans to use nukes just to save face.

Phillip Ridenour
Phillip Ridenour
2 years ago

“A Russian victory would lead to mass killings, deportations, rape and other atrocities.” You mean those things aren’t going on right now?

JayJay
JayJay
2 years ago

Why would we think this administration would make any move whatsoever to protect or defend the citizens of this country? Old Joe has obeyed his puppet masters since he took office and thrown us under the bus at every opportunity.

Mike Walker
Mike Walker
2 years ago

Why does Russia need to go nuke? They are winning with conventional weapons. This article is projection propaganda.

No Name
No Name
2 years ago

A lose-lose situation for all. There ARE no winners in a nuclear holocaust.

David Millikan
David Millikan
2 years ago

Puddin’ knows DICTATOR Beijing biden WON’T DEFEND the United States.
DICTATOR Beijing biden WILL HIDE in basement just like he did during his presidential campaign all the way up to today and beyond.
Remember, DICTATOR Beijing biden blames everybody else for ALL of his TREASON against the United States and US.
So WHY would I believe DICTATOR Beijing biden would Protect us when he’s done EVERYTHING to DESTROY the United States?
Like taking our guns to Protect ourselves is a prime example.
Ending OUR ENERGY INDEPENDENCE is another.
Out of control INFLATION.
ILLEGAL and UNCONSTITUTIONAL MASK and VACCINE MANDATES.
ILLEGAL ALIENS and TERRORIST CONTINUING to CROSS OUR BORDERS.
OUTRAGEOUS FOOD and FUEL PRICES.
The list goes on.
So, as I said, WHY would I believe that DICTATOR Beijing biden will protect the United States?
I DON’T!

Jeff Noncent
Jeff Noncent
2 years ago

He saw the weakness of Joe Biden and Obama he figure if he send it they won’t do anything about it because both of them are in the same boat as he is.

Ed
Ed
2 years ago

You can bet Braindead Joe and his people will already be gone

LarryFrom10EC
LarryFrom10EC
2 years ago

There’s one possibility omitted here- Putin orders a launch of nuclear weapons and a general (or generals) march into his office and put a bullet in his head. Not all Russians are insane.

Casey C Matt
Casey C Matt
2 years ago

AMAC promotes this article by putting it into print and on the internet so, if AMAC is truly a trust worthy organization then it must present a video showing President Putin threatening ANYONE with nuclear weapons. I don’t care if “sources at the Wall Street Journal” says anything….you are promoting the false narrative that Putin has issued such a threat. He has NOT.
There are at least two US Senators that have however. Where is the “love” for those two fat old men that hire people to wipe their asses and have no compunctions about ending the lives of their constituents and in fact a goodly portion of the globes population.
I have found it strange that AMAC fights back against our governments vaccine lies but immediately buys into the lies the same government has promoted regarding Russia.
People, please look up the Minsk Agreement, or The Minks Accord….then look to see who failed to abide by that document? Here is a hint. It wasn’t Russia and it wasn’t the two Democratically established eastern break away provinces of The Ukraine.
Our government lies…….and now AMAC does as well…..at least pending a retraction.

Samuel
Samuel
2 years ago

Any article with a question mark in its headline, is yellow journalism.

Sara
Sara
2 years ago

I am done reading the comments and trying to vote on them. You, EVERY TIME I get on here, have said I voted when I did Not. It aggravates me to no end. AND I wrote a comment about a month ago, left, but came back to add something to it, only maybe a minute later, and it was gone as was the person I had commented on with. So IF I continue to read the articles, I’m sorry but I will not be reading the comments any longer. I may not even read the articles, you have me so angry. You are starting to be just like AARP. Furthermore, this article was really stupid because we all know the answer.

Hal
Hal
2 years ago

Putin has become a symbol of the devil in competition with the legacy left by Adolph Hitler and Nazi Germany. The survival of human progress is deeply threatened by such an animalistic character as is becoming the true sole of Putin. Tne Ruskies better get him closed off (assassination?) or he will not only cause cataclysmic disaster to the World but will also be the horrible and catastrophic end to Russia as we know it. Too many Nations in the World Community will not tolerate Nuke usage given the present situation in the World. However, it is hard for me to believe that Putin would boldly come out an intimate use of nukes. it is just too demented a move and I have no doubt his comrades in the Kremlin would squash him down.

LUKE KNIGHT
LUKE KNIGHT
2 years ago

I am near death so it will not bother me, society is morally bankrupt and not much worth saving so bring it on, just kill me quick. People are trying to burn it down now so I hope t gets all of them.

Barb304
Barb304
2 years ago

Who knows what that bunch in DC might do? As soon as I heard about the Ukraine/Russia war my thought went right to WWIII! GOD BLESS the USA

Casey C Matt
Casey C Matt
2 years ago

Well, sources at the Wall Street Journal insist that Putin will use Nukes in the conflict with Ukraine but I ask ANYONE to find where even on one occasion where President Putin issued any threat of that kind whatsoever. Please, do some research……it “has to be” easily found……or the author of this piece is just another western propagandist hired by western corporate media to further enforce whatever narrative they are telling the people to believe this week.
My God, when are we going to learn to stop trusting our media and our government? How many proven lies will it take. Or are you still one of the people that believe President Trump, a “germaphobe”, actually hired hookers to urinate on him in some hotel? “THEY” maintained that was true as well, remember? Ya want me to list more examples or are you starting to recall them yourselves?

WILLIAM MCKENZIE
WILLIAM MCKENZIE
2 years ago

His and Xi’s greatest allies control the US federal government, so why would he think otherwise?

Craig Driver
Craig Driver
2 years ago

The Rus have always been trouble. They can’t be trusted.

An older blonde women laughing in the kitchen with a grey haired man.
AMAC’s Medicare Advisory Service
The knowledge, guidance, and choices of coverage you’re looking for. The exceptional service you deserve.
The AMAC App on 3 different iPhone
Download the AMAC App
The AMAC App is the place to go for insightful news wherever you are and whenever you want.
political
JCN; Job Creators Network
AAWU amac action update

Stay informed! Subscribe to our Daily Newsletter.

"*" indicates required fields

44
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x

Subscribe to AMAC Daily News and Games