Government Watch / Politics

High Hopes for Republicans – What the Latest Poll Numbers Say About November 

Republicans
House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).

So far during his term, President Joe Biden has delivered to Republicans a mix of sloppy, expensive, and counterproductive policies that have angered most Americans. The images of the Saigon-like fleeing of American military personnel from Afghanistan, the baby formula shortage, historic 9% inflation, over $6 trillion in government spending, and $6 per gallon gasoline have all been seared into the minds of the American voter. Joined by House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) at the South Carolina Republican Party’s annual dinner in July, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) told reporters that a “red wave” is coming this November, it “might be a red tsunami,” he added. Will 2022 be another wave election for Republicans like it was in 2012? A week is a long time in politics and we still have months to go, but here are what the latest poll numbers and elections say as we look towards November.

National Republicans have pointed to recent electoral victories as signs of voter malaise with Democrats and a coming red wave this November. This view is supported by Republican Special Election Congressional wins this year by Brian Finstad in Minnesota’s 1st district, Mike Flood in Nebraska’s 1st district, Connie Conway in California’s 22nd district, and Mayra Flores in Texas’ 34th district which borders Mexico. While the first three were traditionally held by Republicans, the latter was a eye-popping GOP flip of a historically Democrat seat. You need only to look at the nastiness of the negative attack pieces on Flores so far to see how open liberals have been to a young Latino Republican woman joining Congress. Their concern is justified. Strategists in both parties are seeing a major shift amongst Latinos in favor of Republicans, based on their embrace of traditional values and economic opportunity.

President Biden and the Democrats’ disastrous policies have resulted in a Real Clear Politics (RCP) averaged 41% job approval rating for President Biden, with 56% disapproving, a -15 point spread. Yet the generic Congressional ballot, averaged by RCP, shows Republicans in a statistical tie with Democrats at 44% to the former’s 44.2%. But even this is enough at a minimum to take the House out of Pelosi’s hands. The Senate is less certain currently. Some recent polling of marquee battles in Pennsylvania show Democrats sneaking up in the race for Senate and Governor. Other high stakes battles include Senate and Governor races in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, where Democrats are nipping at Republicans heels above the polls’ margin of error in all 8 races. Common sense says that these races should easily go to Republicans in this current economic environment. Candidates there would do well to focus intensely on the Biden administration’s abysmal record on inflation the economy. Don’t take the media’s bait on leading questions about the outrage de jour or drag out personal attacks.

In the money race, the Republican National Committee (RNC) raked in $11.8 million in July, compared to the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) $10.7 million. The RNC has led the DNC in fundraising all year, with the exception of June, a clear sign of enthusiasm. However, House and Senate Democratic campaign arms are slightly ahead of Republicans. Fundraising totals for July show the House Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised $13.5 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s (NRCC) $9.8 million. Similarly, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) raised $10.1 million compared to the National Republicans Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) $8.1 million. The DCCC has outraised the NRCC all year, and the DSCC has outraised the NRSC for the last four months. 

All and all, it’s no time for Republicans to rest on their laurels. Now is the time for message discipline on the economy and for making a straightforward case to the American people that Democrats have not led the country towards prosperity. Current poll numbers look good for Republicans but the fourth quarter is no time to let the opponent put points on the board.

“You think it’s going to be easy, but majorities are not given, majorities are earned,” McCarthy said. “We’re not winning it to have a gavel. We’re winning it to change a country.” In order to deliver on the hopes of a red wave this November, Republican candidates up and down the ballot should heed McCarthy’s words, stick to the messaging, work harder, and earn the votes they need to win.

Bob Carlstrom is President of AMAC Action 


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Andre Bixby
5 months ago

Unfortunately, Republicans do NOT have a track record they can point to and say, “Help us win and we will do what needs to be done to save our country”. All we have to do is look at the wasted 2 years when they actually had it all, and all they did was bicker amongst themselves. Thank God for President Trump, or nothing would have gotten done. And he had to do it without their support and in many cases, had to fight Republicans to get things done.

Andrew Hurayt
5 months ago

As a 64 grad, tuition was $3000semester. College was affordable. The loan program caused an exponential inflation in tuition cost. College is now a high profit business!

Bill T
5 months ago

We’re moving like a TURTLE

Laura Germani
5 months ago

We can’t just assume there will be a “Red wave” in November. We ALL have to get out and vote. We also can’t listen to polls or the media, who are actually an extension of the leftist regime. Regardless of whether we’re Democrats or Republicans, we’re all suffering from the destructive actions of the current administration. We really need Republicans and moderate Democrats in office who have some common sense and who will work toward returning our country to the people where it belongs.

Bill on the Hill
5 months ago

The overall majority of GOP members within both Houses of Congress will continue to play the same old tried & true bulls**t tactics of going along to get along, i.e. the above subject for this article is a prime example of what I’m talking about here, Kevin McCarthy needs to go too, not just McConnell & yet we talking about (2) people within the Republican party, the real number of RINO’s is far greater than simply these (2) men…
Make no mistake about it, America is entering a turning point where both political parties are concerned & it is NOT a pretty picture any way you slice it…
At this critical stage in American history, We The People better start waking up & know with absolute clarity who the hell we are voting for in both local & federal elections…Do the RESEARCH on individual candidates long before entering the voting booth, this applies both locally & at the federal level…If one is NOT able to understand the voting record of any individual candidate running for any given office, you better damn well educate yourself, otherwise stay home & let the grownups that actually see what is happening go to the voting polls & vote accordingly, i.e. you go to the voting place to vote, whether there is a D or an R after their names simply doesn’t cut it, it never has…
Ignorance is NOT bliss, in politics these days, ignorance of whom you are voting for is NO longer acceptable…
Bill… :~)

Max
5 months ago

Well stated, people need to wake up, research, and vote for candidates who will represent their constituents honestly. It is a tall order that has to be filled or this country will be doomed.

Keith
5 months ago

LOL…Republicans resting on their laurels. That’s funny. If the Democrats weren’t such a disaster the Republicans would all be unemployed because most them are just corporate shills and/or dumb as rocks at politics.

A D
5 months ago

It isn’t enough to just oppose the democrat’s stupid policies. You also need to spell out how what your policies are and how they’ll help the average American. Explain how you’d tackle inflation and what you’d do to stop Biden’s plans. Explain how you’ll stop illegal immigration. Just whining that democrats are bad doesn’t cut it. Run and campaign like you’re 5 points underwater. And get rid of that sh**bag McConnell.

dunce
5 months ago

All McCommell wants is to be the leader of the losers.

Randall
5 months ago

It is sad to see Democrats doing so well in this Red Wave! We have allowed liberalism to get to big of a hold on our people. Our country is doomed! If not now then soon we will fall to communism.

Roland
5 months ago

The biggest thing Republicanas have working against them is Mitch McConnell

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