So far during his term, President Joe Biden has delivered to Republicans a mix of sloppy, expensive, and counterproductive policies that have angered most Americans. The images of the Saigon-like fleeing of American military personnel from Afghanistan, the baby formula shortage, historic 9% inflation, over $6 trillion in government spending, and $6 per gallon gasoline have all been seared into the minds of the American voter. Joined by House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) at the South Carolina Republican Party’s annual dinner in July, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) told reporters that a “red wave” is coming this November, it “might be a red tsunami,” he added. Will 2022 be another wave election for Republicans like it was in 2012? A week is a long time in politics and we still have months to go, but here are what the latest poll numbers and elections say as we look towards November.
National Republicans have pointed to recent electoral victories as signs of voter malaise with Democrats and a coming red wave this November. This view is supported by Republican Special Election Congressional wins this year by Brian Finstad in Minnesota’s 1st district, Mike Flood in Nebraska’s 1st district, Connie Conway in California’s 22nd district, and Mayra Flores in Texas’ 34th district which borders Mexico. While the first three were traditionally held by Republicans, the latter was a eye-popping GOP flip of a historically Democrat seat. You need only to look at the nastiness of the negative attack pieces on Flores so far to see how open liberals have been to a young Latino Republican woman joining Congress. Their concern is justified. Strategists in both parties are seeing a major shift amongst Latinos in favor of Republicans, based on their embrace of traditional values and economic opportunity.
President Biden and the Democrats’ disastrous policies have resulted in a Real Clear Politics (RCP) averaged 41% job approval rating for President Biden, with 56% disapproving, a -15 point spread. Yet the generic Congressional ballot, averaged by RCP, shows Republicans in a statistical tie with Democrats at 44% to the former’s 44.2%. But even this is enough at a minimum to take the House out of Pelosi’s hands. The Senate is less certain currently. Some recent polling of marquee battles in Pennsylvania show Democrats sneaking up in the race for Senate and Governor. Other high stakes battles include Senate and Governor races in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, where Democrats are nipping at Republicans heels above the polls’ margin of error in all 8 races. Common sense says that these races should easily go to Republicans in this current economic environment. Candidates there would do well to focus intensely on the Biden administration’s abysmal record on inflation the economy. Don’t take the media’s bait on leading questions about the outrage de jour or drag out personal attacks.
In the money race, the Republican National Committee (RNC) raked in $11.8 million in July, compared to the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) $10.7 million. The RNC has led the DNC in fundraising all year, with the exception of June, a clear sign of enthusiasm. However, House and Senate Democratic campaign arms are slightly ahead of Republicans. Fundraising totals for July show the House Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised $13.5 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s (NRCC) $9.8 million. Similarly, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) raised $10.1 million compared to the National Republicans Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) $8.1 million. The DCCC has outraised the NRCC all year, and the DSCC has outraised the NRSC for the last four months.
All and all, it’s no time for Republicans to rest on their laurels. Now is the time for message discipline on the economy and for making a straightforward case to the American people that Democrats have not led the country towards prosperity. Current poll numbers look good for Republicans but the fourth quarter is no time to let the opponent put points on the board.
“You think it’s going to be easy, but majorities are not given, majorities are earned,” McCarthy said. “We’re not winning it to have a gavel. We’re winning it to change a country.” In order to deliver on the hopes of a red wave this November, Republican candidates up and down the ballot should heed McCarthy’s words, stick to the messaging, work harder, and earn the votes they need to win.
Bob Carlstrom is President of AMAC Action