Election Coverage / Government Watch / Politics

Big Electoral Change – Coming

Change

Narrowing 100 data points to one line – which points somewhere – is tough in 800 words. Bear with me. Horrible leadership is hard to cover. Biden proves the point. His polls are in freefall as his decisions on Afghanistan, vaccine mandates, economy, rule of law are awful. But something else is afoot – and fascinating. Off-year elections, shadows of 2022, could be a surprise.

Here is the lay of land and what it means. Three off-year governors’ elections will happen in two months, Virginia, New Jersey, and California’s recall (in two weeks). With Democrats controlling the White House, Senate and House – VP just campaigned in California – one would expect Democrat wins.

Here is the surprise – looking closely, this is not the rumbling rails suggest. Polls are illuminating. In Virginia, Hillary Clinton’s moneyman and former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe – haunted by pseudo- scandals – fights to keep an edge, battling fresh, high-integrity Republican Glenn Youngkin.

According to Virginia polling, even with a 7-4 congressional seat advantage, the split is statistically even, with McAuliffe holding off Youngkin, 47 to 45. Moreover, trending is toward Youngkin, who was behind by nine points just three weeks ago. See, e.g., Virginia Gubernatorial Race Heats Up; McAuliffe leads Youngkin by slim margin in Virginia gubernatorial race.

Interestingly, battlelines center on COVID response and economy. McAuliffe has hitched his wagon to Biden’s – now falling – star. While candidates urge masks and vaccines, the Republican says rights take precedent, opposing heavy-handed mandates. The Democrat favors them. Similarly, the Republican is pro-business, Democrat unapologetically pro-government.

Likely, Bidens’ unforgivable debacle in Afghanistan will not help the Democrats. Nor will his angry, autocratic, anti-freedom speech hammering half the country for free choices and doubt.

In California, a similar picture exists. While Newsom, beleaguered Democrat governor, says he is sure to win – that is, defeat his recall – moderate Democrats swarm with Republicans.

The formerly left-tilting San Francisco mayor (seven years), lieutenant governor (eight more), and the three-year governor has no room to hide. Caught in recurring hypocrisy, author of COVID bungling, mass homelessness, water rationing, high crime, and taxes, fleeing tax base, spluttering economy, he owns it.

With 24 Republicans and nine Democrats after his seat, the recall could be a rout. If so, Republican candidates like Larry Elder, African American, incisive, famous could win.

Given that both races should not be tight – change is afoot. Democrat stock is falling. If New Jersey is more Democrat, even that race – featuring an incumbent – could swerve.

Looking broadly at congressional races in 2022, odds get better weekly. As the economy, including inflation, unemployment, spending, debt, interest rates, get worse – and as Biden-Harris continue to mishandle foreign policy, security, crime, and COVID, Democrats decline.

The Senate is split 50-50, Harris as the tiebreaker. The House is Democrat-controlled by 220-209. That means one Senate pick-up, a handful in the House – and everything changes. If both chambers flip, impeachments, legislative vetoes, investigations are possible – balance.

What are the odds? Nationally, with redistricting (tipping Republicans), traditional losses in midterms for a president – even a good one – suggest a likely flip of both chambers.

This is an unusual election cycle. People of all persuasions – except far left – are increasingly distressed, dissatisfied, frightened of this White House, motivated to check recklessness.

Looking at these Democrat states – things suggest a tip. Not clear is how fast or far. Warner and Kaine in Virginia are associated with bad judgment – and support Biden. Kaine was Hillary’s running mate. Neither is up this cycle, but their influence is in decline.

Likewise, several Virginia House Democrat seats could flip. If the electorate grows sicker of Biden, House races will pay. Of eleven seats, seven are Democrat, Alaine Luria, Bobby Scott, Donald McEachin, Abigail Spanberger, Donald Beyer Jr, Jennifer Wexton, and Gerald Connolly.

That said, none escapes scrutiny. Of the seven Democrats, Luria, Riggleman, and Spanberger were close, and each could tighten in 2022, especially if the economy tanks, COVID restrictions, and resentment grow, terrorism, crime, or drug deaths rise.

Elected as moderates, some have turned leftist. For example, Spanberger seems to have taken a hard left, now faces a level-headed Republican, Taylor Keeney – founder of Little Hands Virginia, a non-profit providing resources to mothers and children in need, former press secretary for a Republican governor, tied to Teach America. See, e.g., Taylor will put VA-07 first. Let’s do this Virginia!.

In New Jersey, while races tip Democrat, three of 12 seats were tight in 2020 – and could be in 2022, including Andy Kim, Jeff Van Drew, and Tom Malinowski. Small changes could prevail.

Likewise, in California, the recall, disaffection with Biden-Harris, economic collapse, border mess, foreign policy nightmares, elevated crime, terrorism, or tension – could tip seats. Forty-two of California’s 53 House seats are Democrat – and face political headwinds.

Moreover, redistricting based on the 2020 census cost Democrats one congressional seat and one electoral vote. Trends push away from Democrats, as Republicans got three new seats in 2020. Biden approval ratings dip in new public opinion poll.

What does it all mean? Simply put, these states should look bluer than blue, all Democrat. They do not. Instead, Republican sentiment grows in all three, from governors to Congress.

Taken in context, as red states getting strong in their convictions, under intense attack from an angry, ignoble, at times seemingly off-the-wall and extrajudicial White House – the 2022 cycle seems increasingly likely to move from blue-purple to purple-red to red. With these states as a touchstone, Congress may flip, allowing a return to credible constitutional checks on Biden.

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HocasPocas
2 months ago

Reality check, ccp still running election processes in US. Unless the rigging is fixed, I see an all out war in 2022 and it will not be at the ballot box

Last edited 2 months ago by HocasPocas
Karen
2 months ago

Hey all…….REPS in Va and Calif MUST WIN!!!!!!!!!!

Cindy
2 months ago

Refreshing point of view! It gives me hope. Kinda like Princess Leia said in Star Wars about the Empire, “The more you tighten your grip the more that will slip through your fingers.”

Becky
2 months ago

I think with the demonRat Commies in Cali cheating enough to stave off a well deserved recall, voting will matter little.

Sally
2 months ago

I pray you are right in all of this. It always takes a while for the pendulam to swing, but if the American people will quit being so squishy and grow a spine, stand up for our country, we can make it happen, sooner than later!

Patty Hanson
2 months ago

I have grown immeasurably weary of being fed “false optimism” about the integrity of future elections. UNTIL WE GO BACK TO USING PAPER BALLOTS … IN PERSON … REQUIRING VOTER IDENTIFICATION … AND ALLOWING MONITORS….. We Will NEVER Again Have A Legitimate Election Result.

Philip Hammersley
2 months ago
Reply to  Patty Hanson

The old sports analogy : “Play like you’re twenty points behind!” Don’t fall for premature optimism–let’s all work our behinds off to make it HAPPEN!

Ollie Octopusf
2 months ago
Reply to  Patty Hanson

Nothing will change for the better until we abolish The Federal Department of Un-Education (thank you “Jimmy the Peanut”). A study of it will show just how much the USA population has been dumbed down since 1980. Get rid of the Federal Department of Un-Education now! Our public government school system is a total disgrace and if you are sending your kids to one of these cesspools you can expect them to graduate from high school unable to write their own name, to spell, do simple math, or think. Then if you send them to a big name college, expect them to come home in four years hating you, this country, and God. Because they do not study how this country was founded and why it was done that way, they will think socialism is great. However, the local school boards have their greedy little hands out for the federal money that ALWAYS has strings tied to it. Un-Common Core, and Every Child Left Behind are prime examples. If you have a child in high school, have them get off of computer games for a while and download Hillsdale College’s free online course on American History. “Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
hillsdale.edu/educational-outreach/free-online-courses/

Randy
1 month ago
Reply to  Ollie Octopusf

You have squarely hit the nail on the head.

Barb
2 months ago
Reply to  Patty Hanson

Just want to say that my husband and I have always “hand delivered”, showed identification, signed our names at ballot table, and dropped our ballots in the secure box. Felt good about it. Got a sticker that said “we voted” :) We need the secure voting…..we need honest counting of the ballots.

HocasPocas
2 months ago
Reply to  Barb

Did the machine scan your ballot? If so, how did that go for you? After all that happened in 2020 I got on a voter website for pa voters to see how they voted. Got a message that this information isn’t available. I’m not sure what happened with my vote

PTSD THX Joey
2 months ago

JUST IN – VOTING FRAUD in CALIF –
Republican voters being told they voted already, HUH!! ??
Candice Owen is getting emails or texts on this as well.
WHO would of thot that voting there would be crooked
Newsom is CROOKED indeed. Makes ya wonder how much
he has in overseas bank accounts.
Not sure tho Larry can fix that sewer of a state.

I LEFT MN for somewhat the same reasons – one crooked system.
Best thing there is Health Care tho. or it was 7 yrs ago.
But taxes and Government wanting more and more was enuf, BYE!!

PUT UP THE WALL//PIPELINE back//CLOSE BORDERS.
GET RID of the Demander and Thief. USLESS indeed.

Linda Huss
2 months ago

Fraud has already been reported in California. Several republicans ladies shower up to vote and were told they had already voted. As they were walking out several more said they were told the same thing. They were allowed to vote provisionally. Hope those votes are counted and not thrown away.

Ryans Dad
2 months ago

Whoa!! What a bunch of wimps!

Here in Nevada we will be at every polling and counting and we will be bearing arms!! We will ensure Sheriff Deputies (in many. cases “Special Deputies “ will be carefully examining each and every vote to ensure a valid election!

If All Of You whiners don’t get actively involved, you don’t deserve to be called “Americans!”

Garye
2 months ago
Reply to  Ryans Dad

RD- Bravo!
Exactly what REAL American must do!

Oz
2 months ago

Massive mail in ballots fraud will ensure continued Democratic control. The left got away with it once so why would they consider changing?

Judy
2 months ago

Any chance of hope for an election period is going to be quashed by Biden’s future executive order to either shut down the country or require all voting establishments to enforce the COVID Vaccine…..or some other stupid unconstitutional mandate on American Citizens. The demons will stop at nothing in making it impossible for Conservatives to vote. It would be a blessing if things could go our way. I’m not holding my breath. No one is holding the traitors in our government responsible for one single crime against the people of this country. No one is able to support us. God help us!!

shhhhhhhh
2 months ago

2020 election fraud ain’t fixed. More fraud are expected. Democrats win at will. GOP is useless.

Carla
2 months ago

If anyone wants any of the democratic held seats to flip, we need to correct our election issues. Democrats obviously control that, using massive fraud to win. This needs to be the first deciding step to stop them.

Mark R
2 months ago
Reply to  Carla

Carla, I strongly agree with your comments. As my daughter tells me our election issue is the definition of insanity, by doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result!

Rick
2 months ago

I have serious doubts about 2022 being a free and fair election. I don’t see the
Dem-o-rats surrendering power without serious high-jinks. They have no shame
and will do whatever needed to retain power. I believe this is where civil strife will begin

D.P.
2 months ago

My greatest fear is the by the time these elections come to pass, it may just be too late to turn the corner our ship of state is making…..that the results of the elections, should they favor with capacity, the conservative side of things, may put us in a position that has become a mountain too steep to climb….a wall too hard to dismantle, and a process in place that is cruising like a run-away train.
While I intend to vote against all democratic powers, I fear it may be not enough and not capable to stem the tide, reverse the effect and regain the status of “republic.” for our nation. So much damage has already been done that will take decades to repair. So far down the course of failure have we gone that change will be near impossible for a speedy result. I will vote. I will stand with the Constitution and rule of law and all that is worthy of this republic, I pray there will be enough standing for the same things to render the liberals inert and put us back on track. I pray.

Jim D.
2 months ago
Reply to  D.P.

Election integrity is still #1, and our ABSOLUTE HIGHEST PRIORITY! Regardless of everything else! Without it, nothing else matters anymore!

Jeff T.
2 months ago
Reply to  D.P.

Your thought and mine align but, with all due respect, you stopped short of the very real possibility of repeating a tragic part of our American History. The writing is on the wall and our nation is in peril and I fear too many of WE THE PEOPLE have lost their way and simply do not understand; likely due to the Leftist takeover of public education and/or narcissism eg. What’s in it for me/my vote is for sale.What is happening right now has been brewing for far longer than half a century and we are at a tipping point that will thrust us into history repeating. However, if we have to repeat the history (1800s) the tragedy would dwarf the former and I pray that our fellow Americans that do understand this will reach exponentially more and help them understand where we as a nation are headed without immediately correcting course.Loquacious but, in my lifetime, stakes have never been higher.

CoNMTX
2 months ago

I wish I could believe that things will change for the better but I cannot. Voting is rigged and the democ-rats will cheat, lie and do anything it takes to win. They always have only now they do it openly without trying to hide what globalist rats they are.

Kathy S
2 months ago

If this were a fair and square election, then yes I would agree with you. However, these demons are still cheating and stealing votes. We still have dominion voting machines so the fix is in.

Anthony Dell'Isola
2 months ago

Although I want Larry Elder to win, the Democrats will cheat and Newsom will bat back the recall. Cheating will prevail again.

CoNMTX
2 months ago

The democ-rats will again wait until the last minure and do some high level cheating and win. The GOP will stand there as usual sucking their thumbs and wonder, “Golly, what can we do?”

Stephane
2 months ago

Let us see reality! In California, the Conservative voters, at the voting booth, we’re told they had voted ALREADY!
THE DEMON RATS have put the fix in!
Unless we destroy the DEMON RATS, NOW, INSTANTLY, IN THE COURTS, the DEMON RATS will control the country for the next thousand years wit XI at the head!

CoNMTX
2 months ago
Reply to  Stephane

Agreed, seeing as how XI owns Joe and Hunter. Joe and Hunter; what a pair of worthless traitors. Of course, Hunter will be unaware of all this since he will have shot up, snorted, or smoked himself into near coma. Ah, Joe, you can be so proud. Hunter is just a chip off the old blockhead.

Ron ' Bing ' Crosby
2 months ago

Looks like Marxism is slowing down. Need more money in conservative representatives pockets. Peloise goes to her winery and collects millions of dollars . Let’s have a cruise designed for conservative millionaires and raise millions . All you need is LOVE ( political is Money).

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