Why Iran Regime Change Will Succeed Despite Media Efforts to Sabotage It

If you believe the daily reporting of most of the media, including some in the conservative media, the U.S.-Israeli campaign to destroy and replace the military and police capabilities of the terrorist Iranian regime – despite seeing overwhelming success thus far – ultimately cannot succeed.

The undisputed facts of this campaign paint a picture of unequivocal success. Iran’s air defenses have been virtually eliminated. The Iranian navy has been almost entirely destroyed. Iranian missile and drone attacks are down more than 90 percent since the start of the conflict as U.S.-Israeli strikes have destroyed Iranian missile stockpiles and launchers. Their planes, ports, airfields, manufacturing capability, warehouses, training facilities, and military housing are all severely damaged.

Meanwhile, the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is in tatters, as are its other oppressive police groups. Supreme Leader Khamenei and dozens of other top regime officials are dead. The United States and Israel have bombed and razed virtually every building used by the government, leading to a shutdown of all normal regime communications both to the public and internally. Targeted bombings of most regime checkpoints have further hampered internal movements.

This means that both the government and the military have almost no command and control. There is no payment to officials, soldiers, or IRGC members. There are no facilities to provide them and their families with food and reduced means to resupply them with weapons and ammunition. Top officials and mullahs have begun to flee the country, taking with them billions of dollars of stolen or appropriated wealth. Mid-level officials and officers have been left to survive without compensation or specific orders, as have military and police personnel at the lowest level.

Many of the regime’s personnel left behind are now receiving anonymous messages on their cell phones informing them that they have been identified and located by the anti-regime forces – and warning them that if they don’t abandon their posts immediately, they and their families will be targeted and eliminated.

On duty, most of these regime operatives have been forced to hide in tunnels to avoid being attacked in the streets by a growing number of newly armed resistance fighters.

The various anti-regime groups in exile have now met in London, put any disagreements temporarily aside, and chosen Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to be the leader of the transitional Iranian government when the jihadist Islamic Republic regime falls. This transitional government has a detailed, and agreed upon, plan for several months, after which the entire nation will vote to decide its constitution and form of government.

The traditional media has deliberately not reported or underreported much of the above. They often treat information from U.S. and Israeli sources with skepticism while reporting Iranian regime threats, battle statistics, and claims without questioning their accuracy. They routinely mischaracterize or downplay U.S.-Israeli successes. They quote and cite sources and experts who are known to oppose President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu and avoid sources and experts who might cast events more accurately or fairly.

These biases are not new. The media has opposed both Trump and Netanyahu since they took office. The core of their bias is that both of these political figures are conservatives, while the establishment media is notoriously liberal.

As a result of its heavy-handed bias, the influence and audience of once-dominant media institutions have declined sharply. New media venues, conservative and independent, have taken their place as old print and broadcast institutions have shrunk dramatically. The internet and podcasts have replaced them. Social media news reaches far more people than the Left-wing big city newspapers and older broadcast networks that have seen continuously smaller circulations and ratings.

Large numbers of voters still depend on biased media for their news. Recent polls show that the U.S. public is slightly more opposed to the strikes in Iran than in favor of them, but President Trump knows that as his efforts succeed, public opinion will turn favorable in spite of media manipulation.

The Islamic Republic’s attempts to blackmail all the neighboring Arab nations by attacking their civilian areas have clearly backfired. Led by Saudi Arabia, a coalition of Arab countries appears ready to join the military campaign against Iran. The bombing of civilian targets in Qatar, Iraq, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, who were hitherto seen as sympathetic to Iran, displays the self-destructive desperation of the regime and provides a signal of its growing weakness and looming failure.

With the belated addition of support from Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan, the U.S.-Israeli campaign to destroy what’s left of the Islamic Republic’s resources, including fully opening the Strait of Hormuz, is entering a new and even more intense military stage. Trump and Netanyahu are increasingly bypassing the media and publicizing their accomplishments by speaking through alternative media venues.

The conflict in Iran is not yet over. There have been casualties, losses, and costs. No exact date of the jihadist Iranian regime’s collapse is known. But laws of gravity and reality always prevail.

Iran has no friends left to offer meaningful support. It has no domestic currency or means to re-resupply exhausted weapons, no manufacturing capability, no water, no electricity, no food, and no command-and-control structure. There are ongoing mass desertions in the IRGC, regular army, and police. Combined with the increasingly armed and determined spirit of the Iranian populace, an historic change is imminent in Iran, the Middle East, and ultimately in the entire global order.

Barry Casselman is a contributor to AMAC Newsline.