Thank Trump and Tough-on-Crime Policies for Historic Drop in Murders

During his State of the Union Address on Tuesday, President Donald Trump touted the historic drop in murders and violent crime over the first year of his second term. While media outlets have scrambled to suggest that Trump isn’t really responsible for the decline, that analysis is based on pure partisanship rather than the facts.

“Last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history,” Trump said during the speech. “This is the biggest decline, think of it, in recorded history. The lowest number in over 125 years ‒ the year 1900.”

Indeed, while the final data is not yet available, early indications suggest that 2025 saw about 4.0 murders per 100,000 people in the United States. That would be an astonishing 21 percent drop from 2024, the largest year-over-year drop ever, and the lowest homicide rate since accurate national records began in 1900.

It’s not just murders, either. In total, 11 of 13 tracked crimes were lower in 2025 than 2024, according to data from the “Crime Trends in U.S. Cities” report from the Council on Criminal Justice. Aggravated assaults fell by nine percent last year, while gun assaults and robbery tumbled by 22 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Nine of those 11 crime categories saw drops in excess of 10 percent.

Even in some of America’s most violent cities, crime fell dramatically in 2025. In Los Angeles, gun assaults fell by 19 percent in 2025 compared to the height of the pandemic-era crime spike. In Chicago, aggravated assaults decreased by 35 percent. Across all major cities the report analyzed, the average crime lethality rate was down 31 percent.

This is good news for the American people – but bad news for a corporate media that can’t allow Trump to have any good headlines. One opinion columnist for USA Today claimed that crediting Trump would be “oversimplifying what is happening.” Another USA Today story cited “experts” who asserted that Trump’s statements were “imprecise” and “lack context.”

“Try As He Might, Trump Can’t Take Credit for the Nation’s Murder Drop,” ran another headline from The Trace. Axios reported that the decline signals a complete reversal of the “COVID-era crime wave,” while Time Magazine argued that “rates were already falling before Trump returned to office,” and The New York Times declared that “no one knows for sure” what’s behind the “staggering” drop in the murder rate.

But none of these critics accounted for the stunning success of President Trump’s policies aimed directly at the crime problem – namely, his border crackdown and his deployment of National Guard troops to crime hotspots.

From the earliest days of his 2024 campaign, Trump promised to execute “the largest mass deportation operation in American history,” and he has made good on that promise by starting with arresting and deporting murderers and violent criminals. Under the Biden administration, more than 13,000 illegal aliens with homicide convictions were freely roaming the country – a dire public safety threat that Trump prioritized addressing.

At Politico’s Governor Summit recently, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine – a frequent Trump critic – called the border closure the President’s greatest achievement and said support crossed partisan lines. “He has done what has not been done before,” said DeWine. “He sealed the Southern Border… You can talk to Democrats, Republicans, everybody is happy about that.”

Additionally, Trump used his executive authority to deploy federal law enforcement resources to crime hotspots, starting with Washington, D.C. Following federal intervention, murders in the nation’s capital plummeted by more than 60 percent. Another concentrated effort to target violent crime in Memphis led to a 40 percent drop in shootings.

In Chicago, federal law enforcement operations resulted in the city’s fewest murders since 1965 and shootings falling by more than a third. In New Orleans, which also saw federal intervention, the homicide rate dropped to its lowest level in 50 years.

Trump’s success is a result of the “visible presence principle,” said retired Professor Markus Allenbach, who advised former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl on internal security affairs. The first principle of security in regions threatened by crime is police visibility and, if criminals are armed, the presence of armed police, “backed by the military if needed,” Professor Allenbach said.

Dr. Giancarlo Dragonetti, a former advisor to the Italian government in the late 1980s who now lives in Brazil, said that major changes in crime rates like the one now seen in the United States are always to the credit of strong leaders, not nebulous “contributing factors” as some would suggest. “Criminals saw they couldn’t win against a determined government,” he said.

The facts are clear that decisive leadership, secure borders, and a renewed commitment to law and order have delivered measurable results for the American people. While critics search for alternative explanations, the historic drop in violent crime speaks for itself and reflects policies that put public safety first. And all credit for that goes to President Donald Trump.

Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.