Trump’s Prosperity Diplomacy Counters China’s Malign Influence in Central Asia

While largely overshadowed by other national and international headlines, Kazakhstan’s decision to join the Abraham Accords last month was a significant step forward for U.S. diplomacy in Central Asia – and could prove to be a major blow to China’s economic ambitions.

In a media landscape dominated by coverage of the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and China’s aggressive moves in the South Pacific, Central Asia is often forgotten. But this mineral- and resource-rich part of the world is nonetheless a critical region for the United States, China, and Russia as all three nations jockey for influence.

The Abraham Accords, first unveiled in 2020 as a diplomatic pact normalizing relations between Israel and Muslim-majority countries, were the signature foreign policy achievement of President Donald Trump’s first term. Kazakhstan’s decision to join the Accords in early November marks a major milestone not just for Trump, but also for the U.S.-Kazakh relationship as China has moved to ensnare the oil-rich nation in its debt-trap diplomacy.

Kazakhstan had become an especially prized target of Beijing’s so-called “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), a massive global infrastructure and influence campaign aimed at building ports, railways, and other projects to expand China’s economic and strategic power across Asia, Africa, Europe, and beyond.

China’s BRI promises are designed to lure developing nations into taking on huge, high-interest loans for infrastructure projects they cannot realistically afford. When those countries inevitably struggle to repay, Beijing gains leverage – demanding strategic concessions such as port access, mineral rights, or political alignment. This pattern effectively transforms economic assistance into a tool for expanding Chinese geopolitical control.

Kazakhstan now finds itself facing this pressure campaign. In September 2023 in Astana, the capital, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced major BRI projects in Kazakhstan. While the Chinese leader praised cooperation as “an example of solidarity and mutual benefit and mutual success,” every trade relationship with China comes at a price. Kazakhstan’s trade deficit with China ballooned to $1.8 billion in the first half of 2025, up from $400 million for all of 2024. Kazakhstan’s debt to China also now accounts for about 3.5 percent of the country’s GDP.

But Kazakhstan’s decision to join the Abraham Accords has now threatened to break China’s grip. Trump’s diplomatic approach contrasts with that of China by fostering voluntary economic cooperation, trade, and investment among nations that enter the agreements as equal partners.

“The Accords are an alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative,” Dr. Huang Kun, a Chinese defector who previously advised the CCP Standing Committee, explained. “Beijing knows it and that the BRI promised much but delivered little.”

Instead of saddling countries with unsustainable debt, the U.S.-led framework encourages private-sector growth, joint ventures, and regional integration that strengthen each nation’s own economic capacity. In doing so, the Accords promote mutual benefit without undermining national sovereignty.

Zineb Riboua, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, said that the United States’ Abraham Accords framework is much more attractive than Beijing’s approach because American technology will power the next-generation economy while Beijing can only offer outdated infrastructure. “The future is about tech infrastructure. It is an AI infrastructure,” she said. “These are things Israel and the U.S. excel at. China does not.”

A quick comparison of contracts signed by Kazakhstan with the United States and with China reveals this to be the case. For instance, among agreements worth $3.7 billion signed last year, China is constructing factories to build electrical equipment, surveillance cameras, and aluminum products.

Meanwhile, during the U.S.-Central Asia Summit in Washington, D.C., it was announced that Kazakhstan will establish a $2 billion regional AI Compute Hub in a partnership with NVIDIA. Hewlett-Packard, Cisco, and Oracle will also collaborate on the development of data infrastructure, cloud services, and AI solutions, projects worth more than $1 billion. In addition, Kazakhstan has agreed to a $7 billion purchase of Boeing aircraft, a $4.2 billion order for locomotives from Wabtec, a $200 million contract with Leidos for upgrading traffic control systems, and a $3-$5 billion acquisition of agricultural machinery from John Deere.

“President Trump successfully reinvented technology and venture capital into security policy instruments that promote peace,” said retired Professor of Political Science Reinhard Höchst, who served as an Austrian diplomat. “He is laying the foundation for lasting peace in the world.”

Trump’s expanding diplomacy in Central Asia fits into a broader strategy that is already reshaping geopolitical realities far beyond the region. His recent negotiation of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, ending a four-decade conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh without deploying American troops or spending American treasure, shows exactly what this model can achieve.

Trump is building a diplomatic counterweight to Russia and China in the very heart of their traditional sphere of influence by speaking the one universal language they cannot match: economic prosperity. Rather than coercion or conquest, he is offering opportunity, proving that U.S.-led growth – not Chinese debt or Russian intimidation – is the most powerful weapon in America’s arsenal.

Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.