“Trump Effect” Boosts U.S. Allies’ Defense Spending Commitments

President Donald Trump’s success at extracting greater defense spending commitments from U.S. allies was one of the defining achievements of his first term, and he has largely picked up where he left off just a few months into his second go-round in the Oval Office. After some initial grumbling, nations from Europe to the Far East are one by one falling in line.

In the Pacific, where China continues to expand its sphere of influence, Japan passed a record defense budget earlier this year, while South Korea has also increased its defense spending. Both nations plan a buildup of their missile defense infrastructure and have placed orders for U.S.-built weapons systems, including F-35 jets and new radar equipment.

Meanwhile, New Zealand has unveiled plans to double its defense spending to two percent of GDP. The Philippines, which would likely be a key target of a potential Chinese offensive in the South Pacific, is reportedly finalizing a deal to purchase 16 F-16 fighter jets from the United States. Australia recently boosted its defense spending as well.

“All of this is Trump’s influence,” said a former Japanese government official who spoke anonymously since he still advises Tokyo.

Halfway around the world in Europe, Russia is continuing to threaten the security of the continent. Once again, Trump’s tough approach demanding U.S. allies get serious about national defense is yielding results.

Germany has historically been one of the biggest defense freeloaders, enjoying a significant U.S. military presence as a deterrent against Russia while neglecting its own military – despite having by far the largest economy in Europe.

In January, German leaders initially criticized Trump for demanding more defense spending from NATO member nations, continuing a pattern seen under the Biden administration. But two months later, German lawmakers voted for a significant increase in defense spending. Germany could now spend as much as 3.5 percent of its GDP on its military, although that figure remains well below the five percent Trump requested.

Nonetheless, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has acknowledged that Trump is correct in his assessment that the prior benchmark of spending two percent of GDP is “not nearly enough.”

“To stay safe in the years to come, allies will need to spend considerably more,” Rutte said, suggesting that NATO member countries should spend at least 3.7 percent of GDP on defense. “If you don’t do it, get your Russian-language courses or go to New Zealand,” he added. Currently, the United States spends more than double what the rest of the alliance spends on defense combined.

France has also set “a target of 3 percent to 3.5 percent” after defense spending reached 2.06 percent of the country’s GDP last year. In Canada, both major party candidates for prime minister have pledged to boost defense spending, with incumbent Liberal leader Mark Carney outlining plans to purchase new submarines, fleets of drones, Arctic patrol ships, and heavy-duty icebreakers. Denmark, another NATO member, has reached an agreement to allocate more than three percent of its GDP to defense in 2025 and 2026.

New NATO members Sweden and Finland, who joined the alliance in 2022 and 2023, respectively, have also pledged to ramp up defense spending to above three percent of GDP by 2030. On the other side of the continent, Greece recently increased its defense spending to nearly that level, including a deal to purchase U.S.-made F-35 jets and a new air defense system dubbed “Achilles’ Shield.”

The media is currently spinning these increased defense spending commitments as a defeat of sorts for Trump since few nations have agreed to meet the president’s target of five percent of GDP. But once again, the press is missing the forest for the trees – any increase at all is a victory over the status quo of NATO members relying almost entirely on American taxpayers to subsidize the defense of the free world.

One NATO nation that has walked the walk on investing in national defense is Poland – an investment that has paid dividends as the country finds itself on the doorstep of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Polish leaders welcomed Trump’s five percent challenge to NATO members, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk noting that “only an ally can wish another ally to get stronger… That is not what an opponent of Europe would say.” Tusk also acknowledged that Trump was correct in his assertion that most of Europe has treated the United States unfairly in relying on American taxpayers to fund their national defense. “Many things have been unfair to the United States,” he said.

Poland has long been a leader in defense spending on the continent, with President Andrzej Duda announcing in February that the country plans to spend 4.7 percent of GDP on defense this year. Warsaw has signed arms contracts worth around $20 billion with the United States to buy 250 M1A2 Abrams battle tanks, 32 F-35 jets, 96 Apache helicopters, Javelin missiles, and artillery rocket systems.

Three independent sources familiar with Polish political discourse have also indicated to me that the country intends to implement a “systematic significant increase” in modernization efforts and stockpile essential supplies critical for defense, such as ammunition.

Poland’s neighbors Lithuania and Estonia, along with Romania, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic, have also pledged increases in defense spending.

Critics have alleged that Trump’s efforts to compel U.S. allies to increase their defense spending have made conflict more likely. But history suggests that Trump is mirroring President Ronald Reagan’s doctrine of “peace through strength,” which helped defeat the Soviet Union and usher in an unprecedented era of global peace.

“We know only too well that war comes not when the forces of freedom are strong but when they are weak. It is then that tyrants are tempted,” Reagan said in his acceptance speech at the 1980 Republican convention.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’s attack on Israel, Houthi assaults on shipping in the Red Sea, and so many other bubbling conflicts during the Biden years proved Reagan’s words prophetic. Now, Trump is promising to again build a more peaceful world by leading America’s allies – willingly or not – to invest in their own security.

Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.