After a rough general election cycle like the one Democrats just endured in 2024, opposition parties typically look to the midterm cycle to rebound, when the president’s party has historically struggled. But even with Republicans clinging to a razor-slim margin it the House, several high-profile Democrat retirements in the Senate could jeopardize the party’s ability to win back either chamber.
The latest blow to Democrats came earlier this month when New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen announced that she would not be seeking re-election. Shaheen is the third Senate Democrat to opt against another term, joining Gary Peters of Michigan and Tina Smith of Minnesota.
All three liberal senators likely would have been strong favorites to hang on to their seats, but the trio of retirements now means Democrats will have to devote more resources to winning those races – resources that are desperately needed elsewhere. While Republicans are defending 20 of the 33 Senate seats up for re-election in 2026, Thom Tillis of North Carolina is the only GOP member viewed as facing a true “toss-up” race.
With Republicans currently holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to flip four seats – without losing any of their own – to take control of the chamber. Even if Democrats can hang on in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota, Jon Ossoff is also facing a tough battle in Georgia, where he won with just 50.6 percent of the vote in a runoff election in 2021.
Democrats’ best odds for a flip outside of North Carolina would likely be in Ohio, where former Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted is running in a special election after Governor Mike DeWine tapped him to replace Vice President JD Vance. Though the Buckeye State has trended red in recent years, Democrats have had some success there in midterm cycles – most notably in 2018, when former Senator Sherrod Brown won re-election.
In 2024, Brown lost to Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, but he could look to make a comeback next year. Brown ran noticeably ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris, losing 50.09 percent to 46.47 percent, whereas Harris lost 55.14 percent to 43.93 percent.
But even if Democrats could flip North Carolina and Ohio, it’s unclear where two other flips would come from. In the traditional battleground of Florida, where former state attorney general Ashley Moody is running to fill the remainder of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s term, things look solid for Republicans. Democrat consultant types have once again begun insisting that the party can win in Texas, but those predictions are now famous for amounting to nothing on Election Day.
In every scenario except a historic “blue wave,” it appears the best Democrats could hope for would be limiting Republicans to a 51-49 majority.
Over in the House, things initially appeared rosier for Democrats, but the slate of retirements in the Senate has the GOP feeling more optimistic. As Axios reported earlier this month, “House Republicans are salivating over their chances in purple seats thanks to ambitious Democrats eyeing newly open Senate slots.”
“The math is in our favor,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson told the outlet. “We will capitalize on this momentum on the battleground and retain and grow our Republican majority.”
In New Hampshire, Democrat Reps. Chris Pappas and Maggie Goodlander are both reportedly interested in vying to replace Shaheen. Pappas won by eight points in a district rated R+2 last year, while Goodlander won by six points in a district rated D+2. Both seats would instantly become top Republican flip targets should they come open.
In Michigan, the top contender to replace Peters is likely incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who is term limited. But Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who just won a district that Trump also won, could also make a play for the seat, particularly if Whitmer opts against running.
In Ohio, Reps. Greg Landsman and Emilia Sykes are eyeing the Democrat nomination to take on Husted. Landsman won Ohio’s 1st House District by more than nine points last year after defeating incumbent Republican Steve Chabot by more than five points in 2022 (the seat notably shifted more Democratic following redistricting in 2020).
Sykes has won two straight close elections in the Ohio 13th House District after redistricting made it more competitive. Both seats will be top targets for Republicans next year regardless of whether Landsman and Sykes decide to run for Senate.
With control of the House once again expected to come down to a few key races, even a small number of House Democrats resigning to run for Senate could prove enormously consequential for the party. The nightmare scenario for Democrats is if one or more of these swing-district members fail to win their Senate race and then Republicans win the vacated seat.
Of course, outside factors such as the state of the economy and the political mood of the country heading into Election Day next year will play the biggest role in determining which party comes out on top. But Democrats nonetheless appear to be heading into the contest with some major strategic disadvantages.
Shane Harris is the Editor in Chief of AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
Focus on getting Congress to deliver their part in terms of essential legislation that needs to be signed into law well before the midterms roll around. Get that one, big, beautiful bill, with everything President Trump and the American people expect, to Trump’s desk for his signature before Memorial Day, if not sooner. Then the Republicans will have a much easier time flipping those Democrat seats you’re talking about in the article in the midterms.
The “REAL” prospect is on the common sense of the voter. A good majority of the voters are still asleep and continue to vote for Democrat candidates BLINDLY as they continue to listen and read the lies of MSM. Too many remain brainwashed to the antics of the Demos and MSM. WAKE UP BEFORE ITS TOO LATE.
KEY # 1–Do NOT get complacent!! DIMMs can always cook up some hoax or “scandal” when they/ need it and the lame-stream [GUTTER] media will go right along with them! Get winnable MAGA candidates. Maybe we could even improve on Tillis who wavers like a barn door in a windstorm!
Republicans are still being TOO NICE!!! We don’t have to go bat *** cussing crazy like the dems, but we DO need to counter their lies, and they are, with the truth. Since legacy media won’t report the truth, the Repubs seriously need to start running ads, just like during election season. Get the TRUTH out there. Just one example: If US citizens knew how much money the nation is spending on just Medicaid for illegals, there wouldn’t be any more sanctuary cities or states. CA spent 9 BILLION last year…both states will automatically get reimbursed by the feds IF THE TRUTH DOESN’T GET OUT THERE!!! Dems are pushing cuts to OUR benefits and illegals are why!!
Republicans will have a lot better chance if they do something! Relying on Elon Musk and President Trump to take care of everything is a very poor strategy for the Congressional elections! Pass a bill to stop those nationwide injunctions codify some of the DOGE cuts and get the BIG bill passed, so we all know the tax cuts won’t disappear!
Don’t get comfortable yet. Republicans are famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. We need congress to act quickly and comprehensively passing laws to shore up the prosecution of their comrades that partook in the massive fraud and treason that finally now is being exposed. It’s funny that a businessman can accomplish in two months what multitudes of congressmen could never do in decades.
Don’t yell victory yet. A lot can happen between now and then. Local candidates are usually re-elected. The democrats have a large contingent of billionaires behind them. And a voting system in place that has never been investigated. They already have a plan in place to ban ID’s in order to vote. They continue the destruction of Trump and thereby America. All day every day.
Unless Democrats can sever their affinity to “popular” programs like open borders, lenient prosecution of criminals, allowing wannabe women with XY chromosomes to participate in “women’s” athletic programs, and forced migration to EVs, they will have a difficult time maintaining allegiance of any voter with common sense.
Have faith, it may be uphill, we all have good chance get the Republicans we need to fill both chambers of Congress
Please don’t underestimate the power of the democrats! You mention that democrats 2026 prospects are getting worse. They may be getting worse for us, but they are getting better for them. These people are more radical and more to the left than ever before, which is what they want, and they have support, which in itself is sad. They also have the support of the MSM, and I am tired of hearing that they are going away. Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire… all blue, aren’t they? Who is going to change than? It will be almost impossible to change. And republicans have a 53 – 47 lead in the Senate… Really?? Not being able to count on sell-outs Collins, Murkowski, and McConnell and we have a tie! Thank God for Vance! And if you think the MSM doesn’t have the pull anymore, think again. If we don’t have the ‘big beautiful bill’ by memorial day, the midterms will more than likely be lost. If that happens, this game is over. And don’t think for a minute the dems will support that bill. Anything to destroy Trump and his agenda is all they care about. Republicans have a lot of work to do in a very short period of time, so they better get it done and be united. This is not a 4 year Trump term, it’s 2. Mid terms are November ’26. Nineteen months and counting.
How many in congress are doing what they were voted to do, how many are truly doing an honest day work how many put the country first, how many are there milking that cow dry, is there one righteous among them, sure there are few honest but majority is an opportunistic grabbing lot that we see on TV fighting for all they can get and to blazes with the country. Shame on them and us for keeping them in the lap of luxury instead of throwing them on the heap of garbage.Term limit. Propose that and hear them scream.
We the People have seen the true ideology of the Democrat Party. A party of self-indulged, corrupt, elitists, completely out of touch with Americans. A party whose ideology is to keep open borders, allow drugs and sex trafficking of children to continue, defund the police, encourage, support and defend terrorists raping torturing and murdering innocent children, women imen. Incitiivig and supporting violent protesting on our campuses, supporting deadly arson fires across the country, and drugs, crime, filth and homelessness filling our streets in every city in America.
Still further, the Democrats have NO leaders, NO plan, NO vision, and NO COMMON SENSE. And yet they CONTINUE TO DOUBLE-DOWN on EVERYTHING THAT HAS DESTROYED THEM – INSANE PERVERTED SOCIALIST IDEAS AND FAILED POLICIES, ALL OF WHICH HAVE BEEN UNIFORMALLY AND STRONGLY REJECTED BY THE MASSES.
YES, 2016, 2028, AND BEYOND DON’T LOOK GOOD FOR THE DEMS. THEIR DESTRUCTION HAS BEEN SELF-INFLICTED AND WELL EARNED.
SOME WOULD CALL THAT KARMA. OTHERS, JUSTICE.
I am firmly convinced that all this dancing for positions, chasing down multiple re-eoection efforts over many years, and the power-base building of the likes of many in congress…all of it would neither exist or even have been possible if we had term limits. The only reason the likes of dems. and repubs. doing what they do, the way they do it is because they get to stay too long at the party. As long as the music plays they will dance…term limits will send the band home. The Potomac Two Step (Patriot Games) would stop if the music stopped. TERM LIMITS!!!
Voters in New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota: stop the TDS, wake the fu)k up and vote Republican.
I think the smart ones see the a fitting on the wall and are getting out while they can. Take their dirty money and run.
Pelosi was booed out of her Town Hall. She isn’t too popular anymore. Maybe that is why she is going to retire.
Thanks. Very informative.
Good Victory on our side Minus DC Estd Swamp
please stop saying this!! They just won a special election in PA in a Trump +15 district and are challenging (more than anyone expected) in FL in Mike Walz’s district. They are a mess but somehow always know how to win elections. Fair or not, they get across the finish line with lies and distortions.
Next election won’t be like any election in memory, it will be one of the most accurate and honest elections in many decades, ergo, the democrats will do much worse than anyone thinks.
The Marxist/democrats have nothing. They know it. They were hoping for all the illegals to somehow carry their load. As more and more info comes out, the dems will struggle to just stay alive. I believe they will have to restructure their feeble party and try to convince their voters they are more conservative. It would be nice to see this Titanic sink to the bottom.
And that is assuming the status quo funding advantage Dems have. Or, I should say, had. With USAID gone, all the politically activist NGOs seeking other money sources, and ActBlue imploding after being exposed as no thing more than a money laundering machine for illicit donations, that too will have a tough impact on Democrats for multiple election cycles to come I would think.
“Democrat” and “dishonest” are synonyms…. and have been since the inception of the “Democrat” party. Not much to memorize, but, most assuredly, words to live by. If actual representation sounds appealing to you, then vote Republican.
SCREW THE DEMONCRATS THEY DESERVE WHAT EVER THE GET. THEY BEEN SCREWING THIS COUNTRY FOR TOO LONG.
This is one scary looking business meaning comrade
Democrats have nothing to offer of value due to their Ideology. They want total control over people. They believe themselves smarter thereby, all people are to fall inline or you have no place, no voice, no value. They believe their System is to be put in place by any means possible. You can see this today as to what’s transpiring by their followers. They cannot be reasoned with or even want to listen. Their values are opposite of True Christianity, by which, on the whole, those Founding Fathers set in motion the building of the USA and the Patriotic Constitution; signed into Law and Declared. Because of these beliefs they will dry up having no life to sustain themselves at their rootless stump as time is quickly running out.
The Ds can always out cheat the Rs.
I wish DJT would shut his mouth more often, but the Dumbassocrats should learn to shut their mouths interminably!
Bernie used to be considered a wing nut but now speaks for the Democrat Party.
The problem with Minnesota is 50 to 60 percent of the state lives in the Twin Cities. That’s why Minnesota ends up going blue. Ditto for Washington state (Seattle), Oregon (the I-5 corridor which includes Portland), Maryland (Baltimore and the DVM area), Illinois (the Chicago metropolitan area) and New Jersey (burbs of Philadelphia and the Big Apple and Newark).
Wake up Minneapolis!
I heard a rumor that Susan Collins was considering not running for re-election in Maine. I don’t know if in this climate if Maine can elect someone with an (R) but I do know Maine is a different state. New Hampshire is also a different state.
I live in Texas and John Cornyn is considering running for re-election in 2026. Cornyn is getting old and has been in the Senate a little too long. Fortunately, Cornyn won in 2020 in part because a progressive Democrat opponent (Hegar) didn’t get a great deal of support from “traditional Democrats” and most of Hegar’s funds were out of state donors (yes, really.) I was also glad Cruz was re-elected in 2024 where several “traditional Democrats” didn’t support his opponent in the state (much of Allred’s campaign funds came from out of state donations. )
Remember “the red wave” that was to take place in a previous election? LESSON , complacency could end up in the same disappointment in 2026.
The residents of New Hampshire thank this old liberal for not running again and hope the door doesn’t hit her in the rear on the way out.
biden and his crew tried to destroy the usa, obama pulling the strings.
Encourage all liberal Dems you know to name Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) as their DNC spokesperson. It will all be downhill after that!
“Ain’t that a shame? You’re the one to blame!” — Fats Domino
By the time 26 rolls around all of the DEImocrats will be rotting in the DC gulag awaiting the gallows for their 2020 election coup.
I wouldn’t be gloating so fast.I don’t think Trump can save the country and eventually the voters will see that.Then,not having a clue,they will switch back to Democrats.Sorry,if this message depressed you.Watch it happen.
My opinion, there is one sleeper out there. And seems like Trump & Musk team are making a lot of the voters unhappy this year!
Musk is pissing a lot of people off by the way he is implementing DOGE cuts. People will vote their personal pocketbook on election day.
If Trump continues to beat the war drums it will be catastrophic for his domestic agenda and for the Republican Party. Voters want things fixed at home and to leave foreign entanglements. It is absurd to have US national guard troops in Syria and Africa.