The Silver Linings from Last Tuesday That Conservatives Shouldn’t Ignore

AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris

Following last week’s midterm elections, the prevailing narrative among both Republicans and Democrats is that the GOP woefully underperformed expectations. But while Republicans indeed fell short in too many key races, the night was not without some noteworthy GOP successes – many of which flew under the radar amid more high-profile Democrat victories. Looking ahead to what is now shaping up to be perhaps an even more consequential national election cycle in 2024, conservatives would do well to pay attention to the races where they had unexpected success as well as those where they struggled.

Perhaps the biggest silver lining for Republicans is that the GOP is on track to win the national popular vote in U.S. House elections for the first time since 2016. If current trends hold, Republicans will have swung the electorate about 7 points from 2020 – a definitive rebuke of Democrat policies, no matter how the media and the White House try to spin it. To be sure, the Republican majority in the House of Representatives will be smaller than expected. But the GOP is still likely to flip the chamber, which means that they will be able to block the more radical elements of Joe Biden’s agenda.

Republicans were dealt some significant blows in House races early on in the evening, failing to oust endangered Democrat incumbents in places like the Virginia 10th (Jennifer Wexton) and Ohio 9th (Marcy Kaptur). But the GOP found unexpected success in other places, most notably New York’s 17th Congressional District, where Republican Mike Lawler defeated powerful Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney. Though Republican gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin lost to incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul, he outperformed expectations, likely helping Lawler and a number of other New York Republicans in tight House races. Crime was the major focus of Republican candidates throughout the Empire State, further suggesting that law and order is a winning issue for the GOP.

Republicans’ failure to flip the Senate is undoubtedly the biggest disappointment of the election cycle, but even here there were some victories the GOP can learn from. In Florida and Ohio, Republicans Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance easily defeated Democrat Reps. Val Demings and Tim Ryan, both of whom had attempted to pitch themselves as “moderates.” That strategy clearly failed, likely due in no small part to the Rubio and Vance campaigns relentlessly hammering home the fact that Demings and Ryan had voted with Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi 100 percent of the time in the House. Republicans should keep that in mind two years from now when they try to unseat Joe Manchin (WV) Sherrod Brown (OH) and Jon Tester (MT) – all red-state Democrats who have similarly branded themselves as “moderates” despite compiling a radical voting record.

In Wisconsin, the success of incumbent Republican Ron Johnson – despite the defeat of GOP gubernatorial nominee Tim Michels – shows the path forward for Republicans in swing states. Johnson won without apologizing for his conservative bona fides (including his close association with former President Donald Trump, which the media and some in the conservative establishment are now suggesting was the kiss of death for swing-state Republicans) by focusing heavily on the radical record of his opponent, Mandela Barnes, particularly on crime. With Democrat Senators in nearly a half dozen swing states facing reelection in 2024, Republican hopefuls would do well to study how Johnson leaned into the most popular aspects of the America First agenda to put Barnes on the defensive and paint a stark vision of the future under far-left governance.

Aside from congressional races, conservatives also saw some encouraging signs in down ballot contests that they should not ignore. In particular, concern over indoctrination in K-12 classrooms and parental rights in education led to a wave of success for conservative candidates in school board and superintendent races again this year, much as it did in 2021. The New Yorker sourly reported last Wednesday that “candidates fearmongering about unions and ‘critical race theory’ fared depressingly well” in midterm contests, specifically citing the Superintendent of Education race in South Carolina and dozens of school boards in Florida and Texas that flipped from liberal to conservative. Another story from the Daily Caller highlighted additional races where Republican school board candidates did well.

As AMAC Newsline has extensively reported, indoctrination in schools is a very real phenomenon, and raising concerns about the state of American education is far from “fearmongering.” It is evident that conservatives have public opinion on their side when it comes to keeping politics and left-wing ideologies out of classrooms, and that the mainstream media is perturbed over results in races for education posts should be a sign for the GOP to double down on the issue.

Republicans can also turn to individual results in state legislative races for encouragement. Take, for example, Ohio’s 3rd state Senate district, which comprises parts of Columbus and several inner suburbs. There, Republican Michele Reynolds, a Black businesswoman who emphasized her Christian faith and family values throughout her campaign, defeated incumbent Democrat Tina Maharath in what was considered a safe hold for Democrats. Reynolds’s success was another sign of the emergence of strong female minority candidates within the GOP and an expanding Republican coalition. Similar stories abounded in other states throughout the country, providing a roadmap for future success in both state and federal races.

Though this year’s midterms are ultimately a story of missed opportunities for the GOP, conservatives nonetheless have much to be hopeful about moving forward. Joe Biden is still deeply unpopular, the Democratic coalition is still fracturing, and Republicans have a hugely favorable Senate map in two years. By learning from the failures of 2022 and building upon the few bright spots for the party, Republicans can leverage their control of the House to set the stage to finally deliver on the promised Red Wave.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_.