AMAC Exclusive by: Daniel Roman
Before the 2016 election, left-leaning pundits often discussed the so-called “Blue Wall,” a collection of states totaling over 230 electoral votes which had voted Democratic in every Presidential election since 1988. On election night in 2016, Hillary Clinton captured Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico, states which had eluded John Kerry, only to watch the Blue Wall crumble when Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin went for Donald Trump. Nonetheless, even in 2016, Democratic hegemony on the Atlantic seaboard north of Virginia held. New England, New York, and New Jersey remained solidly blue in the Presidential contest.
Will this trend continue in 2022? New Jersey may well be an early indicator, as it holds elections for governor and state legislature this November. Incumbent Phil Murphy, elected by a 56%-42% margin in 2017 over former Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno, is up for reelection against Republican State Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. The race is in many ways a microcosm of the opportunities that exist for Republicans in the region, and the challenges they face exploiting them.
On paper, Murphy should be vulnerable. He has presided over not just the highest COVID-19death rate in the country, but one of the highest in the world, on par with Hungary, Bosnia, and the Czech Republic. That death rate has occurred despite one of the toughest lockdowns in the country. New Jersey has been willing to elect Republican governors in the past, most recently Murphy’s predecessor Chris Christie who won in 2009 and 2013. Murphy has also feuded incessantly with political bosses within his own party who might not be unduly troubled by his defeat.
New Jersey is a polarized state and tends to produce two types of elections: Democratic wins of between 10-12%, which have defined virtually every U.S. Senate race since 1992, and every governor’s race they won, or narrow Republican victories for governor. The difference, at least in part, seems to involve timing. Christine Todd Whitman in 1993 and Chris Christie in 2009, both Republicans, challenged incumbent Democrat governors who had overseen unpopular tax increases. Both elections also took place within the first year of Democratic presidents’ terms – identical to the situation Phil Murphy faces this year.
Yet Ciattarelli has struggled in the polls, generally lagging 12-18 points behind Murphy. On the surface, the situation looks bleak for Republicans. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 2 percentage points more in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 (57% – 41% vs. 55% – 41%). Moreover, in 2016, Donald Trump carried 5 out of 12 Congressional seats, as did Republican candidates. In 2018, Republicans lost 4 of those seats, reducing them to a single seat. While they regained one seat in 2020, it was by narrowly holding the seat of party-switcher Jeff Van Drew. Donald Trump only carried three out of twelve seats in 2020, despite only a 2% shift in overall margin.
But a closer look at demographic shifts driving these changes may reveal an opportunity for Republicans statewide. While Trump suffered substantial losses among suburban, traditionally Republican leaning voters in New Jersey, he also made major gains with Hispanic American and African American voters. However, these gains were often concentrated in heavily Democratic Congressional districts, leading to the down-ballot massacre for Republicans in congressional races.
Ciartarelli’s challenge then is that he either needs to win the new Trump voters, or try to recreate the old pre-Trump GOP coalition in New Jersey, many of whom did not just vote against Donald Trump but have voted against all Republicans in recent years. Ciartarelli’s own old assembly seat is represented by a Democrat, as Hunterdon County went from 58%-40% Romney in 2012, to 54%-40% Trump in 2016, to only 51%-47% Trump in 2020.
Can these voters be won back? Ciartarelli has the issues on his side: Murphy’s poor COVID response, Democratic corruption, and high taxes. But there is now a regionalist element. Much as Democrats are perceived as hostile to rural America, suburban dissatisfaction with the national GOP is driven not solely by ideology but by a perception that the Republican Party not only does not care about them but is outright hostile. Behind this perception is the memory of one of the few tax increases Republicans have passed in modern history. As part of the 2017 Tax Cut bill, Republicans eliminated the State and Local Tax deduction, or SALT which allowed taxpayers to deduct their entire local and state tax bills from their federal returns. In states with high local tax rates like New Jersey and New York, this represented a tax increase on many voters. Republicans were quick to note that with a $12,000 standard deduction this only applied to very well-off voters, but those happened to be Republican voters in states like New Jersey with high cost of living. Ironically, for these households, Democrats became the party of lower taxes.
The justification offered by national Republicans, that blue states should lower their taxes, or people should move, was self-defeating for local Republicans. Faced with a Democratic state government, Republicans in New Jersey, and arguably across the Northeast, had no influence over local tax policy and were effectively told it was their own fault they were unable to do something impossible. Any who took up the advice to move, are, of course, no longer part of the electorate Ciartarelli needs. SALT is painful for many, no doubt, but its real impact has been cultural, painting the Republican party as hostile to the region, and unconcerned with local Republicans within it.
How Ciartarelli approaches the SALT issue will be key, as it will be for Republican prospects in neighboring New York, where Congressman Lee Zeldin of Long Island, former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, and Andrew Giuliani, son of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, are early contenders to challenge Andrew Cuomo (assuming he even makes it to the election, given the scandals now engulfing his office). Cuomo faces multiple allegations of sexual misconduct as outlined this week in a report from theNew York’s Attorney General. His handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially regarding nursing homes, has also prompted an investigation by the Attorney General. Cuomo confronts the real prospect of being impeached and removed from office by a legislature controlled by his own party.
Zeldin, widely regarded as the GOP frontrunner, may face real headwinds from the SALT deduction, especially since he was a Republican member of Congress when the 2017 bill was passed. His own 1st Congressional district swung from 54%-42% Trump in 2016 to 51%-47% in 2020, and Zeldin won reelection in 2018 by a mere 4% after having won by 16% in 2018.
In many ways, Ciartarelli and Zeldin illustrate the challenges Republicans face in the Northeast. The media says these problems are either due to association with Donald Trump (false) or the national party (true). The real issue is less Donald Trump, who did decently with these voters, and more a perception that national Republicans did not look out for the interests of their own voters in blue states.
A contrast could be drawn with successful Republicans in New England, such as Charlie Baker and Phil Scott of Massachusetts and Vermont, both of whom have won landslide victories in Democratic states, and both of whom have broken with Donald Trump and the national party when politically necessary.
But evidence from New Hampshire indicates there is also a middle course. Governor Chris Sununu won reelection by a margin of 66-32% in 2020, even as Biden won his state 53%-45%. Sununu did not endorse Biden and made clear he supported President Trump. But he was also willing to make clear when he thought the President or national party were hurting his state, and remained loyal first and foremost to the voters of his state.
If Sununu runs for Senate and manages to unseat Senator Maggie Hassan next year, it will show a model that other Republicans in the region should look to follow. Republicans in the Northeast do not need to praise or flirt with Democrats. They do not have to repudiate Republicanism or Conservatism. They do, however, need to fiercely stand up for their constituents. What has harmed the Republican Party in New Jersey is not being insufficiently friendly to Democrats, but the perception that New Jersey and New York Republicans sold out their voters in the state for crumbs from the national table, whether it was with Christie going national or the repeal of SALT. Republican politicians need to fight for Republican voters everywhere, rather than abandoning those who live in “Blue States”. After all, if Republican candidates won’t fight for them, who will?
Daniel Roman is the pen name of a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics.
& only if virus spreads in NE via Obama party in MA etc & from illegals
We must remove the Wuhan Governor of Pennsylvania: Wolf and his evil minions !
Republicans as a whole need a backbone and stick with the principles the party was founded upon and represent the people. President Trump showed it could be done.
Unless, people are REALLY, REALLY, Stupid the Republicans, should win BIG, that is if the Republicans don’t shoot them self’s in the foot by picking Woke candidates. Elect those that will give us our freedoms back.
As someone who lives in New Jersey and is no fan of Governor Murphy’s policies or performance to date, if you’re looking at Jack Ciartarelli as some white knight you’re in for a rude awakening. After looking and listening to Jack’s message, here is what it seems to boil down to:
1) He’s NOT Murphy. He won’t outline specific positions on much of anything, but we’re supposed to be vote for him because he is NOT Murphy. See the problem? Most people want to know what a candidate is going to do to make things better by knowing what exactly is he FOR specifically. Everyone but Murphy is NOT Murphy in this state, so what is he specifically campaigning on?
2) He is an old style machine Republican, that doesn’t like Trump, the MAGA movement or the people that voted for or backed Trump. He won the nomination in a field dominated by re-treads that run every four years. New and innovative solutions to the state’s many problems were not the center of attention. Rather which candidate had the backing of what passes for the official Republican party in this state (a joke in itself). That and who had the bigger donor list and cash to run a campaign. Which would be fine, if he could articulate what is willing to do to turn this state around besides saying he is NOT Murphy. Since he hasn’t been willing or able to do so, one would have to assess him as another typical RINO that will perform just like the last few Republican Governors we’ve had in the last 30 years: Talk big during the campaign, but then be a “go along to get along” RINO once elected. Our state legislature and the state supreme court are controlled by Democrats.
3) Democrat voters out-number Republican voters in this state by better than 3 to 1 at this point. In order for Ciartarelli to win, he needs to get a significant percentage of the Democrat voters in cities like Newark, Jersey City, Union City, Camden and the other Democrat strongholds to see he offers them something better than the endless stream of goodies Murphy has been showering on them in exchange for votes by bilking the rest of the state’s residents. Sorry to be so blunt, but that is how socialism works in practical terms. As I said previously, his campaign boils down to he’s NOT Murphy.
So as much as I would like some sane, fiscally responsible policies enacted in this state to make this state something other than almost last place in every category you can think of, Ciartarelli isn’t the guy likely to win or do anything substantial to turn the state around. Would I vote for him simply because he is a Republican? Sure, but I have no expectation he would do anything substantial should he somehow win. After all, his history in politics isn’t exactly filled with terrific achievements for the people of the state he has represented to date. Yes, I actually do research the backgrounds of candidates, as I believe in making an informed decision before voting. What a concept huh? Sorry if any of this bursts the bubble the author is trying to sell to readers of this article, but that is where we stand here in New Jersey.
At least Lee Zeldin in New York has the potential to win a good slice of the upstate vote in New York state, but getting the majority of the reliably Democrat vote in NYC will be a real challenge. The city is where most of the state’s residents reside. It all depends on whether Governor Cuomo is wounded enough by any of the scandals he is involved in to get the standard Democrat voter to think for a second. Coin toss on that one.
I think if the Republicans would run on ‘term limits’ they would sweep into office.
I understand much the big picture in the northeast. You will get very little help from the Commonwealth of Massachsetts. I have chosen to live here. It seems that we can’t elect a Republican dog catcher. It is frustrating. We elect RINO governors and the rest of the government is almost pure Democrat. I shall continue my contribution to the fight. MAGA/KAG
RINOs, Socialists and Liars, sprinkled with a few true Conservatives- sounds like “hobo stew”.
You can NEVER win against the corrupt practice “ballot-dumping” , and barring the ballot watchers , that was all too evident in the 2020 election. Stalin said : “ It’s not who votes that counts , but rather who counts the votes! “
( paraphrased, but still TRUE !)
Can republicans win ? … not with BS RINOs , not with the corrupt manipulation by the Dems, and not until the informed people of ALL parties votes for the interest of the common people.
Otherwise , we get more like Cuomo, DiBlasio and Biden …. we shall see .
Hopefully the northeast liberals will wake up and vote Republican and get their states back under control with crime/taxes/immigration scams/and just about everything else that Biden has ruined/ Vote for helping yourselves instead of these losers who have ruined your dreams for so many years now/That is exactly why I left N.J. instead of letting these liberals do things I did not believe in/Vote Republican and within a couple of years your state will not be shattered by these losers over &over
The stupidity of the average Democratic voter is the greatest obstacle to overcome. They don’t understand that this Democratic Party has changed and has become more Progressively Communist though they call it Socialist. They’re too stupid to realize that there is NO MIDDLE CLASS IN SOCIALISM/COMMUNISM!!! Just rich and poor, and 98% of the people will be poor! And when one is poor and having to depend upon the government for everyday survival, there is no hope to change their status. A good example is the African American community, they blindly support the Democrats who NEVER seem to fulfill their promises and yet still always vote for them! Trump did much more for them in 4 years than Obama ever did in 8 years as President. If Larry Elder somehow can defeat Newsom in heavily Democratic California maybe there can be some hope. But I doubt it even if Elder somehow can win. Stupid is, stupid does!
This is a nicely written article. People must be infatuated with numbers and statistics! However, the game the Republican and Socialist parties are playing is becoming evidently clearer as they become more embolden with their propaganda. For the last 50 years the Republican party has focused their agenda on how much money they can make when elected! The Socialist party since 1850’s have been focused on the control of minorities and how to spend taxpayers money unconstitutionally. I pray at sometime “We The People” stop drinking the Cool-aid, wake up not woke up, to how this country has been run for the last 50+ years. Neither party is interested in the graft that surrounds the election process. It is almost like there is a Gentleman’s agreement on who will win an election. Someone prove me wrong – please!
Reading all the comments almost gives me hope, as a NJ resident. Then I remember the media and big tech are liberal, progressive, biased and “woke”. Republicans let the democrats define them as racists and don’t fight back. A large percentage of the population is “uninformed” and reflexively votes democrat. Why aren’t the Republicans talking about Murphy sending senior citizens infected with covid to nursing homes? That resulted in thousands of deaths. How about Murphy illegally borrowing millions of dollars, without legislative approval, that NJ residents have to pay back. When asked on television about the constitutionality of his covid lockdown orders, Murphy famously said that’s above my pay grade. The Republicans have plenty to talk about. The democrats lie, cheat and steal to win elections, so I have little hope. I will vote for the republican candidate, while wishing the republicans fielded a better, stronger candidate.
Murphy in NJ will call for mail in elections only and win by a large margin. If it stays as in person voting Murphy will win by a closer margin. NJ is a deep blue state steeped in graft and union corruption.
Roughly 80% + of black voters vote ( D ). What puzzles me is why most of the New Eng. voters ( 90% + white ) vote ( D ) communist and against the constitution. Has’nt a buzzer gone of in their “minds” that the ( D ) party is now communist controlled ?
The Republi-CANs, First have to grow a “set!” Then PROVE it!
Talking is just talking and rhetoric is just more talk!
We The People have to DO something SERIOUS and STAND together as Americans for America. There is a storm on the horizon and Americans By the Grace of GOD need to RAIN on the COMMUNIST Parade by any and all means possible.
I for one old Veteran did not serve in Vietnam and 12 years on active duty to witness this insanity.
I WAs there…. Sometimes I still AM… and READY to fight once more!
REMEMBER! Adolph Hitler won election the German Chancellery in 1933 by ONLY ONE vote! After that,,, VOTING in GERMANY did NOT Matter! From 1933 through 1945 the NAZIS NEVER had a majority in ANY Vote for anything! THEY had a PLURALITY by DIVIDING any and ALL oppositions into factions that COULD NOT Win! Stalin did it also but he STARVED and Murdered the opposition too. SOUND FAMILIAR???????
Only with additional issues like Cuomo’s. Otherwise, too many people want something for nothing – entitlements must go.
Only if republicans grow some a set and start fighting back Most Americans want fighters,not sheep.
Where are our leaders. The Republicans are swamp dwellers, too. Money, money, money. They represent themselves, not the people.
Good mention concerning the SALT deductions, which is a highly sensitive point in both NY and NJ. The problem is that giving in to the demand of “letting” the SALT tax limits be lifted should not also mean that those who get this benefit also get more deductions, too to avoid tax liabilities. Both states have the highest concentration of multi-millionaires and billionaires who also do nothing to help fund their liberal wishes. Just exactly where are the funds going to come from to cover all these wishes? Especially if they are not contributing their fair share of taxes. Most of this high income have means to lower their tax liabilities, by the reclassification of the source while pishing the tax burden for the state costs of operation on the decreasing income class that doesn’t get tax benefits and has to deal with increasing crime rates and less policing while the ultra-rich get a private police force to take care of their security needs. Housing prices and rental costs are outrageous forcing people to share housing with more than the safe number of individuals to afford the cost. We definitely need a radical change in attitudes of the politicians who are playing for power and money in their pockets only, and we certainly do not need the radical progressive movement being pushed by the AOC group which offers nothing but excessive spending but no solutions to the causes.
The problem for Republicans is that their base is starting to move away from the Northeast. There’s a reason New York lost a seat and Florida gained. Republicans are starting at a huge disadvantage as the straight party voters are becoming more Liberal/Democrat and those that would vote straight GOP have moved out.
So the State Democrats continuous waste of taxpayer money, and resultant taxation demands, resulting in extremely high state taxation for New England citizens is the fault of Republicans who oppose the Democrats high taxation, and other Americans paying for it! Wake up America.
I am originally from Hunterdon county and have many friends and family still there-I can say first hand that many people that used to vote reliably Republican no longer do as they were turned off by the antics and culture war being waged by the National republican party (this pre-dates Trump). People in rural/suburban NJ were generally fiscally conservative that may have been somewhat socially traditional, but also socially tolerant. The Republican party is no longer the party of fiscal conservatism as both parties are happy to pile on more debt. Thus, I agree with the author-a Republican politician in NJ can do well if he/she focuses on local issues, good governance, and fiscal responsibility. I think if such a politician can politely but clearly show the excess wokeness of the current democratic party without being a blabbering culture warrior and remain fiscally conservative, they can win.
As long as Republicans maintain the Big Lie, they will find themselves getting smaller and smaller.
New Jersey will get the governor it deserves. ( Glad I don’t live in New Jersey.)
Repubs have to get off their butts and start fighting. They are all lazy, non-committal, and don;t seem to care about anybody but themselves. Most of them ran to get involved in government because eventually they will be pulling in the $$$$$$ just like the Dems. Is Biden going to take 50% of the commies retirement……..doubt it. C’mon Reps, get going!!!!!
I agree with what you said about Republicans need to back each other to make them look even stronger and like they get along. The RINO”s need to go.
Republicans should be going after minority voters with the principles of the Founding Fathers that all mankind is made in the image of God and that is source rights and go against group identity. Republicans need to abandon crony capitalism and embrace true Free Enterprise. Minority voters would come in large numbers for a reformed Republican Party that truly was a party of Lincoln. Republicans would crush Democrats all over the nation.
True science doesn’t support the mask, or lockdowns. Impeach Biden, no mask mandates, no vaccine passport. Not a penny until this happens. Republicans have developed a knee jerk reaction to anything the Democrats do, sending emails and text to raise money. Why don’t you introduce legislation to counter these overreaching?
Unless and until there are election observers who continuously monitor the election results and insist that procedures are being followed and that photo ID’s are required to circumvent the “vote early and vote often” elections such as we saw in the last “presidential” debacle, it won’t matter what the pundits say. No Dimocrat or representative of the MSM sees any problem with Slow Joe only receiving a majority of votes from highly populated areas where the elections were most easily corrupted.
Thanks for the excellent synopsis of the political atmosphere in NorthEast states. Lots of good points.
It Amazes Me, How Republican leaning publications leave out Jim Crow Voter Suppression That Allows Republicans in Georgia to Remove Democrat Election Officials in Fulton and Dekalb Counties and Replace them with Republican Loyalists. Proof NYT Apr 1, 2021 “Full Text: Georgia Voter Law SB202 read pages 11-12 of 98 Page Bill. 4 million People in Harris County Texas “1,777 square Miles “1 Election Drop Box, “1 Drop box For “2.7 Million People of Dallas County Texas. There are “26 Election Drop Boxes in Union County New Jersey “660,000 People, 690,000 square miles. Texas a 12 year old who has been raped or a Victim of Incest Forced to Have Baby by the State that Still has Not Fixed it’s Power grill, That Utilities Charged Average Texans $8,000.00 Monthly Bills pulled out of direct deposit accounts, in Winter. “OPEN CARRY GUNS” In Your Supermarkets, Malls, Parks and Public Streets, You must wait until the unstable person starts to shoot you and your child, instead of common sense of arresting a person with an AR-15 or AR-47 in Your Supermarket, Mall. New Jersey “4th Safest State In U S, #2 in Education. Please Compare Crime Rate and Murder Rate with Red States. Read AmericanProgressAction org Jan 26 2018″ President Trump’s Policies Hurting American Workers” Here is a list Of “53 Policies explained hurting American Workers” Here’s the Truth About Who Is Working For The American People” “67% of The Democrat Only(Not 1 Republican Voted For $211 Billion dollars going directly to “80 Million American Families, in ChildTaxCredit Checks, $250 per child per month per Family. **THIS MONEY BEING SPENT IN YOUR AMERICAN MAIN STREET BUSINESSES. $109 Billion for Farmers and Small Businesses, $56 Billion for Mortgage and Rental Assistance. ***You That Are Being Evicted or being Foreclosed on in Republican Run States, Ask Your Governors where is The “$18 Billion Texas Got From Democrat Only $1.9T American Rescue Plan. Ask Them Why are they Trying to Hurt You, because they want to hurt Joe Biden Administration, because the money is there to help you. Ask Them Why Class Rooms have more than “30 Children in Classrooms, When American Rescue Plan Gave $178 Billion to Schools to make all safety changes. Here is the Truth About Your Trump Tax Cut “87% of Deductions went To Top 5%, Went To Capital Gain Deductions, Stock Buy Backs, money that is hoarded, in Stock Buys, Off Shore Accounts and Foreign Business Ventures. That Money was not spent in your Main Street Businesses. Watch TYT Dec 30 2018″ Trump Huuge Tax Bill is A Total Hoax” truth about economy an economy for the Rich, Gold Price on Jan 2017 was $12.12 an oz, sign of an economy that is strong for the people, Unemployment was down to “4.7% from an Rate of “9,9% in 2008. “2.2 Million Jobs Created in 2016 and 75 Straight Months of Job Growth. Proof read “FACTCHECK org Jan 20 2017″ What President Trump Inherits”. Destroying our Democracy with Dictatorship Executive Orders Against Workers on October 22 2020. Read Stars and Stripes October 23 2020 “Trump Issues Sweeping Order Stripping Tens Of Thousands Government and Civil Service Workers of their Job protections” He Stripped them of their Right Not To Be Fired Without Cause! “How’s Republican Louis Dejoy Working out for The United States Post Office, After Destroying Tax Payer Paid for Mailing Sorting Machines, That Used to Sort “30,000 Pieces of Mail An hour, That Now Have Created an unnecessary backlog at Post Office and making the jobs of USPS Workers Harder. Read about Trump Jul 9 2017” Tweet “He and Putin(Ex KGB) Will Create A Cyber Security Partnership” His Words, Verifiable in Seconds, Washington Post, La Times, Etc. My “3 1/2 years of research to expose Trump’s more than “30, 000 Untruths Told, most documented By The Washington Post, Which Calls Them Pinocchio’s. Trump dismantled our Specially Designed Surveillance planes OC-135B That We Used To Surveil Russia, when He Lost Election and Left “OPEN SKIES TREATY” With Allies Since “Cold War” 1992. This was Treaty Established for Allies to Keep eyes on Russia. MSNBC Nov 24 2020. @RalphLCampbell1 Twit 6 hours a day, for the last 3 1/2 years only truth can expose The Truth About Republican Policies That Hurt The Security of the United States and The enhance the wealthy only. 10 Republicans Sat in Moscow on July 4th 2018″. Why do You Wonder Why Our Government agencies have been Cyber Hacked? Trump Appoints a Loyal Congressman with zero Intelligence Experience to head “17 Intelligence Agencies, “John Ratcliffe, Instead Of Commander Joseph Maguire or Deputy DNI Susan M Gordon with a Combined Experience of “60 Years of CIA, Intelligence and Navy Seal Experience.