Government Watch / Politics

2021: The Year the “Great Realignment” Became a Death Spiral for Democrats

AMAC Exclusive – By Daniel Roman

Trafalgar

2021 has been the year of the Great Realignment. Rather than a one-off, Donald Trump’s impressive gains with non-white voters have proven the harbinger of a greater shift. Republicans won two heavily Hispanic districts in the Texas State House this past November, one which went Democratic in the presidential race by 14%, the other when Democrat Ryan Guillen switched parties in a district where no Republican had ever won more than 39% of the vote. Democrats have also begun to acknowledge their peril as they have come under fire over their use of the term “Latinx.” In the meantime, they are losing voters at a speed almost unprecedented not just in American but in world history. In 2020, Joe Biden still won Latino voters by a factor of almost 2-1. As recently as this summer, polls showed that advantage falling to a 50-50 split. This fall, as Joe Biden’s polling numbers have descended to the basement, his numbers among Latinos have fallen into the Earth’s core. Recent polls have Latino voters being less supportive of Joe Biden than white voters as a whole.

It is hard to describe the scale of this shift. The last Democrat to win the white vote nationally was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, when he won 62% of white votes overall. Barack Obama in 2008 managed a mere 43%. Joe Biden did only marginally worse in 2020, garnering 42%. Marist College, in their most recent poll, finds Joe Biden around that mark among white voters, with 40% approving and 56% disapproving of his job performance. While underwater, Biden’s numbers among whites are not horrific by historical standards for a Democrat. Obama won reelection with only 39% of the white vote in 2012. But he also won overwhelming margins among non-whites, to the tune of 93% among African Americans, 72% among Latinos, and almost as much among Asians. Joe Biden, by contrast, lacks any sort of cushion. As a whole, nonwhite voters disapprove of Joe Biden by a margin of 52%-44%.

That is not a data entry error or a typographical mistake. A majority of non-white voters disapprove of Joe Biden’s Democratic administration. It is hard to overstate just how momentous this shift is for U.S. politics generally, or how potentially catastrophic it is for Democrats. The saving grace of the Democratic Party in elections, the force that kept them competitive, was the overwhelming support of non-white voters. Democratic dreams of electoral victory, or more accurately hegemony, have fixated on the prospect of an increasing proportion of non-white voters. Such sentiments infected Democratic arguments regarding immigration, leading them to abandon their unionized working-class white base in the Midwest in favor of promoting the mass migration of what they fully expected would turn out to be millions of new Democratic voters at some future point. They are now discovering that the children of immigrants grow up to be working-class Americans and resent competition from cheap foreign labor, as well as the perception that those who break the law are favored over those who follow it.

The collapse in non-white support for Democrats creates a problem for Democrats, not just in terms of winning elections but in terms of campaigning. Democratic appeals to non-white voters relied heavily on the belief, which for a time had some basis in reality, that as long as U.S. politics was polarized along racial lines, then voters of different races would have different political and policy views. Even if Democratic efforts to woo non-white voters by supporting mass immigration, or promoting liberal policies on crime, offended white voters, Republican efforts to exploit that alienation in turn pushed those groups further into the arms of Democrats—or so the thinking went. The increasing political alignment of voters of different races who are otherwise similar (in terms of class, education, and rural/urban/suburban status) means that the Democrats can no longer count on this sort of divide and rule strategy. If Latino voters increasingly favor a tougher approach to border security, and African American voters, as they recently demonstrated in New York City’s mayoral election, care far more about getting crime under control than woke social policies, then populist Republicans face no tradeoff whatsoever running on those issues.

The Democratic collapse differs across non-white groups. Latino voters have seen the greatest shift. 65% disapprove of Joe Biden’s job performance in the Marist poll, while only 33% approve. That is an almost exact inverse of Biden’s performance in November 2020, and far worse than his 56%-40% margin among whites. But other groups have also seen erosion. While Marist did not provide a breakdown of their African American sample, a recent Economist/YouGov poll found Biden above water at 60%-27%. Although a 60% approval rating among African Americans is drastically better than Biden’s 43% approval rating overall, it is much worse than the 92% of the black vote he received in 2020.

The even bigger surprise is not so much Biden’s collapse among non-white voters but why he has held so firm among whites. As mentioned, by historical standards for a Democrat, 40% is not particularly bad. In fact, it is arguably better than Obama’s numbers at the end of his first year. When we dig deeper, we see another split, one at the heart of the Great Realignment globally. In the Marist poll sample, white respondents with college degrees actually approve of Joe Biden 52%-46%. Those without degrees disapprove 32%-65%, almost identical to Biden’s numbers among Latinos. The Economist/YouGov poll finds slightly smaller splits, but still massive. Among white men, those with degrees approve/disapprove 43%-55%, while for those without, the figures are 26%-67%. When it comes to white women, the numbers are 51%-45% and 32%-58%.

In short, for all of the news of Democrats’ collapse, that collapse has not reached the core of the college-educated elites who became the base of the Democratic Party during the Trump years. That is especially true among white women with degrees. It is probably not a coincidence that the messaging coming out of the White House, whether it be on COVID-19, abortion, or “voting rights” seems almost exclusively designed to appeal to that constituency.

While support for Biden has held up among that constituency, the collapse among everyone else has not escaped notice. Hence the hysteria of the college-educated wing of the Democratic Party is not so much about the loss of non-white support, but what it means for their issues – “democracy” and “abortion” – with the former more or less involving control of institutions such as the federal government and judiciary to safeguard the latter, or to impose draconian restrictions on the working class to keep COVID-19 away from their enclaves.

The sturdiness of white college support for the Democrats in their time of adversity is a mixed blessing at best for the Democratic Party. While it is preventing their numbers from seeing a total collapse, it creates a feedback loop which is proving hard if not impossible for Democrats to escape. The more non-white voters desert the party, the greater the dependence the party has on white college grads, a demographic whose policy and cultural interests actively repel nonwhites and working-class voters of all backgrounds. To make matters worse, discourse about future political strategy is driven by a professional political and media caste dominated by this white college elite. Hence the focus on words and issues which only matter to them, such as the belief that the use of “Latinx” is more important to Latino voters than the border or support for Communism in Latin America, or that introducing racial lecturing into the schools is more important than reducing crime or keeping schools open for African American children.

By contrast, this is also making it easier for Republicans to keep their new coalition together. Historically, politics around the world have been about resource distribution. A dollar spent on school X cannot be spent on school Y. As a result, it is hard for one party to appeal to everyone because parties become identified with policies that effectively favor one group over another. One reason the parties became so polarized was because Democrats were the party that wished to spend more money on African American or Latino school districts and police forces, while Republicans wished to spend more in often-wealthier white areas either through lower taxes or spending decisions. This meant Democrats, by favoring redistribution, had an audience.

It is an audience Democrats have forfeited by being the party that wishes to defund the police – for everyone. The party that advocates closing schools – for everyone. African American and Latino voters who cast ballots for Democrats because they believed Democrats would fight to provide greater funding to their communities had zero reasons to support a party that wished to defund their police departments entirely. In fact, the only people such a policy could appeal to are groups who do not feel they need the police or in-person schools. This does not mean that tensions do not exist within the (potential) new Republican coalition. But they are ones Democrats will find it hard to exploit.

They are also tensions which have been removed by the defection of wealthy former Romney/Bush voters to the Democrats. In many states and regions, it was precisely these voters who are now Biden’s most committed supporters and who today most stridently champion lockdowns and, when they were “country club” Republicans, tended to veto efforts to redistribute wealth to non-white communities. In fairness, they tended to oppose investing money in poorer white communities as well. In fact, they tended to have near equal hostility for the interests of working-class individuals of all backgrounds, an attitude they have taken with them to the Democratic Party. But the important point is that their absence from the emerging Republican coalition is as important as their presence in the Democratic one. By leaving the Republicans, they have made it easier for the Republicans to serve the interests of working-class voters across the board.

The net effect is what we see now – The Great Realignment, present not just in the U.S. but globally. Every country is different, and whereas in Canada or California, it may simply entrench the dystopian technocracy of the postgraduate classes, in America broadly, it promises the reverse. It has sent the Democratic Party into what may very well be a death cycle, where everything that weakens the Democrats also strengthens the Republican Party.

American politics in 2022 promises to be a new world. One that has Democrats fearing their November 2022 rendezvous with destiny. Caesar’s ghost told Brutus they would meet again at Philippi. Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, AOC, and the rest might as well have the voice of Donald Trump in their ear promising the same.

Daniel Roman is the pen name of a frequent commentator and lecturer on foreign policy and political affairs, both nationally and internationally. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics.


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Bonnie M
6 months ago

Very informative article. Thank you.

River daughter
6 months ago

Funny, as ‘postgraduate’ progressives claim the problem is that top Democrats are too corporate and what is needed is a shift left to bring back working class and non-white voters. Not to mention Manchin as the spanner preventing the same.

Verdes Lutz
6 months ago

DJT has exposed democrats for what they are, liars, frauds, and cheats, greedy, vicious, incompetent and corrupt. This is good reason to leave their

Patrick
6 months ago

It does put some ease that these numbers are going in this direction, but who in the hell is attributing to the non zero Biden approval rating? I’m mean we all know some of type of leftist idiots, but a 40% approval? I’ll take notice when it’s 4%.

Tammy
7 months ago

Loved this:”If Latino voters increasingly favor a tougher approach to border security, and African American voters, as they recently demonstrated in New York City’s mayoral election, care far more about getting crime under control than woke social policies, then populist Republicans face no tradeoff whatsoever running on those issues.”
The whole piece totally nailed today’s issues.

Clark Kent
7 months ago

Well, Dan, you forgot to mention the obvious: massive, unchecked voter fraud that still has not been (nor will ever be) corrected to allow honest, fair and untainted elections. Does not matter what percentage of this or that group votes GOP. All is naught when the system is rigged. Now the Dumbocrats are working in Congress to make sure the fix continues forever with a FEDERAL ‘voting rights’ law. WAKE UP!

Rich C
7 months ago

Henker, there HAS to be a greater country out there for you somewhere.

Gretchen Greco
6 months ago
Reply to  Rich C

All of us?! Costa Rica looks promising ????

Rich C
7 months ago

The Democrat’s hypocrisy is on full display and can’t be ignored anymore even by the media and those sold out to the socialist/marxist agenda. 2022 will show even more evil from this party. People are finally waking up! Yay! Go America! Let’s all do our part in “the great shift” back to common sense and pray for God’s intervention.

Alisa A
7 months ago

How can we keep pretending Joe Biden won anything honestly? Yes, his almost year of presidency has been one flop after another. But the voters didn’t get it wrong. And any article pretending we did is dishonest and placating the left.

Andrew P
7 months ago

I expect a huge shakeup when the “Everything Bubble” collapses – probably before the 2024 election. If this happens, the 2024 contest will probably be a faceoff between Trump and AOC (I am assuming that AOC becomes NY’s next Senator after defeating Chucko, which will tee up the big 2024 cotnest). AOC will run on a platform of full communist revolution, and will probably draw crowds at rallies as big as Trump’s.

Rich C
7 months ago
Reply to  Andrew P

I pray you are wrong but think you may be right. God help us!

lothar baier
7 months ago

the main question i am asking myself is : WHAT TOOK THEM SO LONG ?
Hispanics always been family oriented hard working people their values and religious beliefs always were at odds with the values represented by the democratic party and the importance of immigration for hispanics always been greatly overstated by both parties for a variety of reasons !

Richard
7 months ago
Reply to  lothar baier

Good question. First they had to be insulted by the demeaning label “latinex” and suffer the long string of broken promises and double crosses by the Democratic Party plantation political machine. The most loyal of Democrat constituents get the least spoils. More than a political matter its social and economic. The country club republicans and limousine latte liberal democrats are side by side in the same gated communities, universities, corporate executive parks, and exclusive clubhouses.

John Brown
7 months ago

Democrats have become the party of the rich, selfish, Marxist, ELITE. They are bought and paid for by White, left wing billionaires, and they hate working Americans of all races and religions. Working Americans are supposed to keep their mouths shut and obey their Democrats masters. Funny how Democrats went from slavery, to control with Jim Crow, KKK, Lynching, and now they want total control of the Government to give them total control over all working American by making them slaves of Government, which of course they think they are entitled to control 100%, even if it means stealing elections with massive fraud. That’s why Democrats and their lying Fake News propaganda media are increasingly hysterical about race baiting, and spewing racism and hate to drive divisions. They know that working Americans aren’t racist, and that LATINO’s and a growing number of Black Americans see what the Marxist Democrats are all about. LATINO’s in particular came to the USA to work hard and build a better life. They fled Marxist dictators and socialist dead in the water economies. They see that the Democrats are taking the USA down the path of poverty and misery for working folks just like the Marxist in Venezuela did with what was once the richest country in Latin American and now a total Communist basket case. Latino’s know what happens.
The problem with silly college educated whites is they’ve had it too for too long. They haven’t seen a country destroyed by the likes of Chavez, Maduro, Biden, AOC, Ilhan before and they don’t believe it can happen to them. They buy the lies as likely will until the inflation, murders, violence, chaos and authoritarianism of the Marxist Democrat party starts to hit them and their families. We’ve seen some reality sink in like in VA, but not enough. They still think old Senile Alzheimer JOE and the Marxist incompetents around him will make sure they are ok. They should look at Venezuela and see what happens when you buy the lies from those people for too long.

Dana L Turner
7 months ago

Well written but what I get from it is the stupidity of black voters who somehow feel (D) is the most important thing on the ballot. This tribalism is what holds them back.

Gretchen Greco
6 months ago
Reply to  Dana L Turner

They still don’t remember what party the KKK was/is??? Believing the SocCom’s Lies!! The 1619 BS! The One’s Holding them down, holding them back! Keeping the Dad’s in Prison’s, and enticing them to abort their beautiful Gift’s from God ????.

Scott J. Brooks
7 months ago

I disagree with this article. It says ” The saving grace of the Democratic Party in elections, the force that kept them competitive, was the overwhelming support of non-white voters.” Not accurate. voter fraud is what kept them competitive.

Michael
7 months ago

The author refers to recent historical elections, not specifically to the 2020 general. His statement is correct.

Alisa A
7 months ago
Reply to  Michael

They didn’t just start cheating. Scott is correct. Pretending otherwise is dishonest and will only prolong our predicament.

Clark Kent
7 months ago
Reply to  Michael

You think the Dumbocrats perfected voter fraud ‘RECENTLY’? HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA!!!!

Hal
7 months ago

Right on!!! It’s pretty simple to summarize the character of the present Democrap Party. Its guiding goal is to “RULE” the Nation, NOT “GOVERN” the Nation. The rigging of the last POTUS elections was a successful step in achieving that goal.

Dawn P
6 months ago

Yes! The insurrection took place on November 3 and the protest came on January 6.
Anyone who still believes that there was no massive cheating on November 3 is foolish. Even if you adore biden and truly did vote for him (which is perfectly ok!) the giant majority did not. There are a multitude of facts that point to the truth, and in all honesty, I believe what everyone wants most, regardless of party, color, station in life or anything else, is the Honest to God TRUTH.
I am not confident that we/the country, can move on without that major component.

Mojo Raisin
7 months ago

When Biden acknowledged there was no federal solution he should have tendered his resignation as well.

fredwriter1961
7 months ago

The Democratic party is morally, intellectually and politically bankrupt. Its constituencies are smug, elitist white leftists from the media, Hollywood, the academy and the cultural refuse of the large cities have values and attitudes that are completely out of touch with the rest of the nation and they know it. They do not care about fundamental rights such as freedom of speech, gun ownership and religious freedom. They believe that they are always right and everyone else is always wrong. Their sickening sense of entitlement and certitude is destroying civic life and threatening the legitimacy of every single institution in the country from sports to medicine and now air travel. They must be firmly repudiated in 2022. They are a modern day confederacy that has seceded from the cultural and moral mainstream since the sixties and whose lust for power and control poses and clear and present danger to all of us.

Larry W.
7 months ago
Reply to  fredwriter1961

WELL SAID !

HocasPocas
7 months ago
Reply to  fredwriter1961

Fredwriter1961, would you say that what they are doing is considered an insurrection on the freedom of the US citizens

Hal
7 months ago
Reply to  fredwriter1961

Yep. The Democraps want to “RULE” the Nation …. not “GOVERN” the Nation. And a Nazi style Communist governing form is the surest way to do that.

Gridlock
7 months ago

¡Vamos Brandon!

GTPatriot
7 months ago

There’s a basic problem. No leadership. Leadership is when someone ( ie Trump) takes a
sharp, clear position and defends their position against opposition Not a vague , lets change it tomorrow, we’ll adapt it to fit the narrative position. The dims possess the second.
Petro inflation is killing us but the dims can’t figure out why Joe Mansien is against BBB ? Talk about clueless. Joe knows this game and he is devoted to his constituency as he should be. BBB is code for giveaway and the public is violently opposed to more giveaway. We have done mega-trillions of giveaways for decades and have nothing to show for it. I defy anyone to defend the RESULTS of our giveaways starting with the Lyndon Johnson- Great Society giveaway plan. I’m listening.

Dan Roberts
7 months ago

I like the optimism. But Democrats have the “deep state” and the media and legions of brainwashed youth. I live in a blue city where Republican is a dirty word. I am not sure if Americans are smart enough or open-minded enough to realize that Dems are trying to make America a one-party country akin to the CCP in China or if Americans are able to discern the lies they’re told from truth or the tactics being used (“Russian Collusion”) from reality. Dems have proven they have absolutely no principles other than win. Trump may have handled the pressure Dems exerted without grace, but he certainly served up an agenda that served most Americans, the elite political class excepted. The fact Republicans don’t offer handouts as shamelessly as Democrats serves Americans in the long run. Dems are into “feeding the wildlife”, short-term gain with terrible consequences in the long run. Are Americans wise enough to eschew this tactic?

Joe Blow
7 months ago
Reply to  Dan Roberts

I have been very pessimistic; but lately have had a very small amount of hope. “If something can’t continue, it won’t.”

Hal Lemoyne
7 months ago

????CHRISTrumpOwens and all their US TRUMPlican Lawmakers successfully US 2020-2036 Reelected Landslide
Amen & Amen????

Hal Lemoyne
7 months ago
Reply to  Hal Lemoyne

CHRISTrumpOwens and all their US TRUMPlican Lawmakers successfully US 2020-2036 Reelected Landslide
Amen & Amen

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