There's been some talk of economic pessimism lately; 38% (down from 42% in February) of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics expect a recession in 2020; 34% expect a recession in 2021. Which comes closest to your view of the economy over the next 12-18 months?
The stock market is up some 5000 points over 0bama’s administration. Yet, when it fluctuates 200-500 points, the media acts like we are headed for another 1929 crash.
A recession is, for the most part a healthy reset of a free market economy. When recessions hurt the most is when the government interferes and delays the inevitable by manipulating the economy i.e. quantitive easing, price fixing etc. all of which are usually to keep political capital at the expense of We the People.
The democratic party, as a whole, hate President Trump because they can’t control him. They will do anything to discredit him. He loves America! He only wants what’s best for US, the people of this great country!
Trump said last week that tens of Billions $$ are coming in from China tariffs & that he is giving part of this to the farmers that are impacted. Do not believe this to be true & from what I know the $14 billion to the farmers is coming from taxpayer money. What is truth & how does US govt. get this tariff money. I think the farmers would rather produce their living rather than handouts from govt. Is this not a type of socialism to give me money not to work?? In my strong opinion, quit this trade war with China & start over with negotiations.
Economies are made or broken by policies. The policies from the previous administration caused serious downturns of employment by taxing small businesses out of existence. A socialist regime cannot survive with an economy that is thriving because people will not depend on the government to coddle them. There will always be the poor because there has always been poor people. The thing we can do is offer opportunities to better their situations not by college but by teaching skills that will boost their economic growth. Its a win win situation because people with money in their pockets pay taxes and buy things for themselves. Unfortunately there will always be those who have no motivation due to generations of government handouts that they have learned to manipulate the system put in place to give hand ups. I think it is a small population that does this so we must develop a way to have them do some kind of work for government pay outs. There are those who are truly handicapped in some way and we need to help them in their struggles to survive. A flat tax for all or a fair tax system that makes even the drug dealer down the street to pay. Let taxpayers keep all their money from paychecks and get rid of all hidden taxes in all products and charge a consumer tax on them. Like I said if people have money in their pockets they will buy things that will create an economy that would be the envybof the world. Unfortunately there are those in government who enjoy socialist power and will do everything they can to keep it. There is a lot of work left to be done but if we can sustain the policies that our current president has put in place and throw out the ones that are designed to keep economic slavery in place we can become a country that is self reliant and charitable.
Chicken Little effect. Good example is to watch Paul Harvey’s “Cure for Prosperity”, this will explain the Chicken Little that the dems and media are pushing for. After all, they hate the fact that a businessman came in and showed them up
Absolutely ridiculous. This same scare tactic occurred with our computers. Millions were suckered into that claim. Our President is no sucker. He will hold true to his word which by now has become painfully clear to the left. Carry on and pass the ammunition!!
It’s becomes clearer as tome goes by: Conservatives believe what they see, Liberals see what they believe.
Future looks good? $17 TRILLION of NEGATIVE-yielding bonds in the world. USA deficit and debt continue to get larger. The treasury bond inverted yield curve. RV sales down 20% so far this year. It goes on and on. A recession/depression is coming within 2 years. You can take that to the bank. But not the bank! Gold, silver, and bitcoin are up. And they will continue to go up.
Too many Fed Judges are fearful of what will happen if we stop feeding the barbarians in our society. In the 1960’s the barbarians went on a rampage burning and destroying our major cities until we committed to giving them welfare payment. These animals will be unleashed again if we stop feeding them!!
Never Ever Vote for democrat, they are wrong about 95% of the time, plus the leftists have taken it over.
Anyone that thinks socialism is the answer is stupid and or ignorant of how bad socialism is
The Dow is comprised of 30 companies. There are thousands of companies in the market that are going great. Why is everyone so freaked out when the investors sell and play this game. If everyone sold their stocks on the Dow they would only affect 30 companies. That money will only go back into something else. The stock market is nothing but legalized booking. I must be crazy.
I think a recession is coming because the heart of America’s Breadbasket has been devastated by flooding, hail, and on going devastation to both crops and livestock. As well as stored grain reserves. I’m worried this is too widespread to be absorbed.
A trade war with China will do much more harm to them than the USA. And it’s about time someone stood up for the people instead of allowing US corporations to fleece us with low cost foreign manufactured goods and services all while they stuff their coffers. It is unfortunate that the American consumer is so spoiled always having access to the best products at the lowest cost. A little time in the real world, i.e. most Countries other than the USA and they would have their eyes opened wide.
We are getting fairly close to a recession but not likely in 12-18 months. Very likely in 2-3 years and a much worse recession if president Elizabeth or Bernie.
Liberals don’t know what to do next. It’s revenge for Democrats because they lost the presidency. I’m curious what their next conspiracy will be. The left wing progressive socialist liberal Democrats must go!!!!!
The MSM ‘talking heads’ do not understand economics….Who ya gonna call?….DJT!
When I see a recession, then I’ll believe it.
I think it is very dangerous to put too much faith in what experts say.
The stock market does not like uncertainty. I believe we will have somewhat of a downward trend until the trade war with China gets settled. Constant propaganda by the democrats and the media will also put pressure on the market to drive it down, as they will say and do anything to get Trump out of office, even to the point of destroying the country. In my lifetime of 76 years, I have never seen a more disgusting group of people.
I hope you publish these results! People need to know that MANY AMERICANS wisely disagree with the agenda-driven who want everyone to believe a Recession is inevitable! The uninformed/under-informed need to wake up before they give away our Country and all that we stand for!!!
The Democrats are crazy. But someone is making money in all this volatility. They drive stock prices down so them can buy up good companies at lower prices. I remember in economics class that by the time people realize they are in a recession, you’re already coming out of it.
Despite the lefts best efforts to ruin the economy and the country, I am optimistic!
i refuse to participate inany recession
the dimorat libtard leftist have gone outhouse rat crazy. they are finally coming out the way a good many of us have known for years that they are. and we were just refered to as being out of our minds” they really aren’t commie fascists” you are just crazy
no i wasn’t ive known what they are and what their ideology has been
I don’t understand what Trump did to make the democrats dislike him and the office of the President so much that they would like to turn socialist so bad. And bankrup the nation. Between the democrats and the football players I don’t know witch is worse for the country…
The democrats, big spending republicans and the federal reserve have been building this coming recession all along. (papering over the last recession)
Now they are trying to pin it on Trump. Hah! He is working frantically to soften the blow, but it is beyond anything he can do (check the math).
That’s one of the reasons I voted for him, to navigate us through bankruptcy. He IS an expert at it!
The trickle down economics of the Republicans hasn’t worked particularly well for the middle class for fifty years. Many in the middle class have seen their federal taxes increase and many others do not see a significant change, unlike the 40 per cent tax cut for corporations. President George Bush Sr. promised no new taxes, then increased taxes, and got his pink slip after one term. President Trump promised a middle class tax cut and raised taxes on many middle class voters. The Democrats will beat him up on this. Mr. Trump could get a pink slip after one term.
The Federal Reserve has repeatedly torpedoed the U.S. economy. It’s a bit silly to make too much out of a quarter point change in the federal funds rate when 20 per cent plus usurious interest rates on credit cards impede sales as they transfer massive wealth from the productive sectors of the economy to the banking sector. The Federal Reserve is of, by, and for bankers. The Federal Reserve serves to maximize the extraction of interest from productive people without allowing some bankers to get so far out of control that the economy collapses, yet the Federal Reserve has failed at crisis prevention repeatedly, most recently the premature market crashing 2018 rate hikes. You only have to look behind the curtain to see central bankers are not particularly bright. President Trump ‘s take on the Federal Reserve is spot on. One wonders if Chairman Powell is a deep state leftist ideologue mole who will try to precipitate a recession by election day with the expectation that economic pain for the electorate will assure a Democratic victory.
I have faith in Lord Jesus ; and President Trump. I am sick of the democratic B.S they are dangerous. They will do anything and I mean anything! Pure evil! I keep praying for Trump and his family.It is truly a evil force bound on destroying the United States and all of us; The American family and our way of life.
Democrat led media, along with Trump not settling the Tariff issues, will drive us into recession.
Trump may be playing “the art of the deal” but Chinese leaders have read the book.
They recognize that Trump has two months at most to resolve the Tariff spat, and get back to a more normal (lower) tariff rate.
Before October (the start of the 4th quarter, and the point at which data will start to matter) The Tariff war needs to be over.
Why?
Because Wall street does not care as much as Main street cares for what the NYT says.
Wall street cares more about numbers.
Yes, “consumer confidence” is a number, but so is GDP, Unemployment, “percentage of adults between 16 and 65 who are employed”.
Folks in Business make decisions based on numbers.
Are you going to expand your business when the federal government (Trump) starts changing the rules?
Are you going to hire more people? Are you going to buy more inventory to make more things? Only, if you think the economy will expand.
Tweeting intemperate things (like the Tariffs will go up to 40%) don’t mean as much, but doing things (some tariffs went up 10% last month, and could go up 20% in December) have an effect.
The Trump economy grew, regardless of the number of liberals in CEO chairs, because Taxes were lowered, and Regulations were lowered.
The Dow and the S&P 500 grew because the market thought that a Trump administration would leave the market alone. And the Trump admin did, for the first 2 years, and then Trump could not leave well enough alone.
I hope he stops trying to engineer the market, and just let the market it take off without anymore Tariffs or economic meddling.
I Know the USA is capable of 3.5% growth. If only the government will get out of the way.
Laura Ingram’s 3 Rs totally explain what democRATS, and msm are doing. (they are SEPARATING USA ?? Legal Citizens from. CONTENTMENT WITH OUR CHRISTIAN GOD, Others, and Ourselves!!!!!
Recession, Yeah, in China
I wish I could have chosen something between confident and very worried. I’m confident that soros and the dems are going to try every dirty trick in the book (and outside the book) to make sure a recession happens. If we were rid of these criminals the economy would continue to hum along, even with dips now and again.
Certainly one can track the signs to predict future possibilities. However, I am unsure if even Satan can predict the next months, much less the next second. But – on the other hand – I feel confident that Satan has a destructive plan.
I’ve not tracked enough negative signs to be concerned about a recession – nor am I naive enough to think a recession is impossible. There are many events (masterminded or influenced by the red angel or otherwise) that could catapult not only the US economy but a global (thanks to Bush Sr. and Jr.) economy – the likes that would make the Great Depression look like Boy Scout Camp.
Keep your powder dry and aim low….they could be ridin Shetlands.
I’d expect fluctuation in the economy as manufacturing returns to USA. Factories to be rebuilt, people to be trained, and better methods to create the energy to run it all. I’d welcome good US made products. China has sold us inferior and toxic junk to fill landfills for too long. Hopefully we have the talent here to make it a success. Schools have been teaching that it’s wrong to be a successful nation. Fools would prefer we all give in to the notion that socialism is a fair system for all. Rob from those who work and portion out to those who choose to live in bondage. Only fools buy into the insanity that takes away our rights in exchange for empty promises.
They did it to Reagen , now they want to try it with President Trump .
DEFEAT THE LEFT !!!!
Praise to The Freezing Senior; Brian B; Ann; Tamara Chapman and Terry!!!
How can We nurture prosperity and joy fussing about pessimism or optimism of “the economy?” Does an innocent baby manifest and express joy fretting about: “collusion, impeachment, racism, supremacy, slavery, reparations (delusions of persecution), the founding of our beloved Republic, the economy, etc.?”
In a free society – mindful of the abstractions, façades and fantasies of “progressives” – how likely are happy, virtuous, sensible people to be unduly swayed by prosperity, honor, praise and pleasure, or decline, disgrace, censure and suffering? We can wash and cleanse our dirty faces and bodies. Yet, how can we purify the negativity of the invisible life within, and help others attain happiness and joy; regardless of vain “hope and change,” mendacious agitator-media “reporters,” phony celebs, adept “economists” (or “the economy”) – without fear, guilt or regret?
I have spent my entire career helping people plan financially. The normal market cycle out of most four year periods is roughly 1 down year, 1 year to recover the previous year loss, and 2 years of growth. averages between 8 to 9% growth. That The last 10 year bull market was followed by the Tech Bubble and the Mortgage Bubble. Both caused a drop of approximately 46 and 57% respectively. The current Bull Market is now the longest run in history. I’m not being pessimistic, but what goes up must eventually come down. President Trump taking on China is very risky to his reelection. That’s the main reason no past President has tried. Hopefully, the downturn, which will definitely come, will hold off until after our next election. If it does, President Trump should win handily. If not, he’ll be stiffly contested. That’s why I voted for the second choice in the poll.
34% expect a recession in 2021. What about the 66% that aren’t worried? Why do we only get the negative side?
The socialist dumacrats are always dreaming of a recession, how else can they get elected. When the economy is strong and everyone is working there’s no logical reason for anyone to vote for a dumacrat. Everyone knows socialist dumacrats feed on people’s pain and misery. Their elections are filled with fear, lies and doom and gloom .( TRUMP WINS IN A LANDSLIDE 2020)
Greedy traitors and power grabbers have been doing their utmost to emasculate Uncle Sam for decades… in many ways.
Bring our factories and jobs back home…
Time for US to extricate himself from the tightening coils of the foreign constrictors who seek to squeeze the life out of us…
Their traitorous coup failed. Their attempts to defame Pres. Trump and his supporters with their lies have only held sway with their base. Now they are trying to foment fear about the economy, Trump’s major election plus.
The phony push for gun control is also a ploy. They’re hoping the Republicans oppose it(AS THEY SHOULD!!), then try to use that opposition to paint them as cold, unconcerned elitists in league with the gun lobby and against
the people.
The Progressive-Socialists are sickening!
The “hard core” Democrats comprise about 34% of the voting population. I consider it no surprise that 34% of the economists are calling for a recession. The Democrats will vote for anything that will harm President Trump, regardless of the damage it will do to the country. What worries me most is the ignorance of the voters. At least 34% of voters do not seem to comprehend civics nor economics. They vote with emotion rather than knowledge.
A honest decision regarding the economy is difficult to come to without honest facts. The “media” the state department and probably the Fed Reserve are loaded with Socialists/Dem leaning folks. Sen. Rand Paul has been calling for an audit into the reserve for years. A good start. With nearly 50% of the folks out there only listening to CNN,MSNBC, The View etc. will only come away with the next “R word”…….Recession. Its truly shameful that a political party in this country will hurt Americans just to re-gain “power”.
Has anyone checked national surveys of economists/financial analysts over the past 30 or 40 years? I’ll bet about 33% in any given year predict a coming recession.
*** It’s obvious the media is out to bring down Trump and I’m sick of it. Where is everyone getting their steady flow of good reliable news from? I don’t have cable tv.
We are in a fight for our country as we know it and it’s a moral and spiritual problem we are having! We all need to pray and get out and vote we can’t be complacent any longer we finally have a President that believes in God and country but he can’t do it alone the minority is taking over and we must stand up and speak out and stop this craziness!
Hold firm I feel the stock market is over reacting to trade war. The economy looks good. I don’t know of anyone who is holding back on spending.
we shall enjoy boom times as long as Trump is in the White House.
I went fishing on a Charter today. 10-hours with about 15 people I don’t know. Not a one talked politics of any kind except the economy. Not Trump,
just the economy as in retirement savings. I overheard a couple of Retirees talking about their savings being hurt by the ups and downs of the market.
They are just too old to wait it out. They obviously have some savings because they were concerned over $200,000 dollar plummets. This is where I
see this trade war affecting the election, THE RETIREES.
Most of us have time. The stock price goes low… we just buy more shares for the money. The only real trade war so far is China. The congress is doing
nothing to “Lock-In” the great deal with USMCA. We are blaming the House… and rightfully so, but guess what, the Senate hasn’t ratified it either!
What are they waiting on?
If Trump lets this fester, and the great economy and Job Market slows because of Instability concerns, it may hurt him. Either leave the band aid on
with China Trade or rip it off and Ban all Import/Exports with China Exports or products made in China! They need our market more than we need
theirs. It will hurt for awhile… but we’ll have a year to recover and forge a new path. China will be hurt by a $600 Billion dollar export loss and companies
moving out of China so they can access the U.S. market.
So, some of the Trump base (Retirees) may leave him by just not voting. Either leave the band aid on (sign a mediocre Trade agreement) or rip it OFF!
The instability of not knowing is what may impact the base.
I go with the 62% that evidently do not think there will be a recession. Why do we key on the negative which only serves to put fear in those that refuse to research why they think the way they do.
The mainstream media and the Democrats are doing and saying everything they can to bring about a recession..the only care about themselves and being in power..they really DO NOT care about the voters. Specially the conservatives. After all we are deplorables and expendable