President Joe Biden’s tumble at the Air Force Academy graduation on Thursday has again sparked concerned comments about the 80-year-old’s health and underscored how the once “certain” odds of his renomination are becoming very uncertain.
Publisher Steve Forbes, who knows a thing or two about presidential elections, recently even stated unambiguously that Biden will not be the nominee.
Of course, anything is possible. But in spite of what many now assume, a number of factors and events could occur over the next 14 months to prevent Biden from leading his party’s ticket next November.
At the core of Biden’s political problem is his chronic first-term unpopularity in the polls, his even more unpopular running mate Kamala Harris, and his apparently frail physical condition linked to his age. Each of these must improve or Biden could likely face serious efforts to make him withdraw. (The latter is not something he can do much to control.)
But even if these core problems are somehow resolved, Biden’s renomination is in critical jeopardy.
First, within his own party, the bungled rearrangement of the Democratic primaries needs to be fixed so that Biden does not face a humiliating defeat in the New Hampshire primary, which, despite the party’s demand that it follow South Carolina, will now take place first anyway, with or without Biden on the ballot.
Second, although only two semi-serious candidates now are openly running against Biden, the president must avoid either or both of them rising significantly in the polls, or even coming close to defeating him in any early primaries. Robert Kennedy, Jr., is already at 20 percent, and is receiving considerable media attention. The Biden campaign must continue to keep any more credible challenger from entering the race. Already, Governor Gavin Newsom of California is conducting a shadow campaign, waiting for Biden to falter.
Third, the increasing public attention to allegations of Biden family scandals, some even alleging Biden’s own involvement, could become widely publicized, and become more credible. Already, some major establishment media outlets, usually willing to ignore or cover up Biden controversies, are covering and commenting on these stories.
Fourth, the economy, always a prime factor in presidential politics, could sink into a protracted recession with a falling stock market and possible new bank and credit crises. A stock market nosedive between now and next spring would indicate a severe economic downturn at the time of the November election, and voters, seeing their economic well-being and net worth decline sharply, would likely blame Biden.
Fifth, while the now numerous Republican presidential candidates begin their TV debates in August, their criticisms of Biden, and his avoiding debates, could lead to further erosion of his public support.
Sixth, the now-stated Democrat strategy of anticipating the Republican nominee will be Donald Trump — who would, according to Democrat logic, be easy to defeat — must not backfire, either by the Republicans nominating a different candidate, or by a renominated Trump having much more support than Democrats assume.
Seventh, the 2020 “basement” strategy of keeping Biden out of the limelight during the campaign might not work with the president in the White House, where public attention is inevitably and intensely turned.
Eighth, electoral techniques, such as early voting, expanded mail-in voting, and ballot harvesting — which the Democrats employed so heavily and successfully in 2020 and 2022, might be embraced by the Republicans in battleground states in 2024, thus removing a critical advantage for Biden’s party.
Ninth, areas of current domestic crisis, including uncontrolled illegal immigration on U.S. borders, continued inflation, energy shortages, supply chain breakdowns, negative public reaction to woke and destructive policies in education, local government, and public security, could erupt into widespread parental and other public protests and unrest.
Tenth, the Biden foreign policy of supporting Ukraine and persisting on a deal with Iran could develop into widespread perceived failures — and the administration’s lack of meaningful support for U.S. armed forces and preparedness could be seen widely as making the U.S. vulnerable in an increasingly unstable international environment, facing challenges from China, Russia, and jihadism.
These are just ten of the most critical obstacles facing Biden on the path to his “certain” renomination — any one of which could force his withdrawal before the Democrat national convention next July in Chicago.
Already, some of the Democrats’ expectations that Republicans will fail to learn the lessons of 2018, 2020, and 2022, are not being realized as weak GOP Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates are so far not winning nominations in competitive races, and party strategists appear ready now to go toe-to-toe with Democrats on mail-in and early voting and ballot harvesting.
If Democrats believe that they are likely facing the loss of the U.S. Senate, further defeats in the U.S. House, as well as loss of the White House—all because of their presidential ticket in 2024—the certainty of Biden and Harris on that ballot, now seemingly inevitable, suddenly becomes an enormous question mark.
