Storm Clouds Loom for Taiwan

With China escalating its military aggression in the South Pacific, domestic political turmoil throughout the West, and pivotal Taiwanese elections next month, Beijing may see a golden opportunity to make its move on Taiwan.

Last week, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry announced that a Chinese naval fleet had been spotted sailing through the Taiwan Strait – an unusually aggressive move by Beijing. A week prior, Taiwanese officials also said that China had conducted a rare night mission over the contested waters.

China has long asserted complete sovereignty over the strait, a claim disputed by Taiwan and the United States. While the Chinese ships and planes remained on their side of the boundary line established by the U.S., it nonetheless marked another escalation of Chinese displays of force.

The military maneuvers sent a wave of unease across Taiwan less than a month before the island nation is set to hold presidential and parliamentary elections.

Taiwanese officials have repeatedly warned that Beijing is engaged in multiple efforts to influence the outcome of the contests, including both overt military threats like sending its navy within sight of the Taiwanese coastline and sowing confusion and discord among Taiwanese voters through online propaganda campaigns.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, who was confirmed to an unprecedented third five-year term earlier this year, has made reunification with Taiwan, which broke away from Mainland China in 1949, a top priority. In September, Xi described “complete reunification” as “inevitable” and hinted at possible military action.

Intelligence sources have previously said that Xi has plans to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Currently, Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, of the pro-independence DPP party is leading in the polls. The Xi administration is actively working to promote the candidacy of his opponent, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang Party.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) who chairs the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, has said that Hou is a “puppet candidate” who would be entirely controlled by China if elected. China, meanwhile, has been spreading the narrative both online and through its state-controlled media that Lai is a puppet of the United States.

Experts on the Taiwan-China conflict have warned that if Lai wins, Xi could make his move on Taiwan shortly after. Given that Lai could remain in office until 2032 – when Xi is nearly 80 – the Chinese leader could fear that his chance for reunification by peaceful means is slipping away and resort to military action.

“Xi wants to outshine the legacy of Deng Xiaoping, who paved the way for Hong Kong’s handover to China, by unifying China and Taiwan,” Chao Chun-shan, a professor emeritus at Taiwan’s Tamkang University, told Nikkei Asia, a prominent Japanese news outlet. “Because [Xi] doesn’t have too much time left, he cannot accept a victory by the independence-minded Lai.”

But as the threat from China continues to grow, domestic political turmoil in Washington is hampering all-important aid to the island nation.

Led by Joe Biden, congressional Democrats have conditioned aid for Taiwan and Israel on passage of billions more in aid for Ukraine, with the White House backing a $106 billion package. While Senate Republicans have indicated that they are open to Biden’s bill as long as measures for U.S. border security are also attached, Democrats have thus far balked at the compromise.

This standoff likely has done little to assuage the fears of Taiwanese leaders following a series of foreign policy debacles under the Biden administration. China for its part has used Biden’s disasters to undermine Taiwanese confidence in U.S. support and will no doubt attempt to do so again.

Following the disastrous evacuation from Afghanistan in 2021, for instance, the Global Times, a Chinese state-run media outlet, ran an editorial openly stating that the fiasco proves that Taiwan cannot count on America. “From what happened in Afghanistan, [the DPP] should perceive that once a war breaks out in the [Taiwan Strait], the island’s defense will collapse in hours, and the U.S. military won’t come to help,” the article read. “As a result, the DPP authorities will quickly surrender, while some high-level officials may flee by plane.”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has given Taiwanese authorities further reason to believe that the United States cannot deter its adversaries under Biden’s leadership. Even as the West has shunned Russia, Beijing and Moscow have grown closer with virtually no pushback from Washington.

Biden’s decision to roll out the red carpet for Xi in San Francisco last month has also given Taiwan little reason to believe that this White House will stand up to China. While Republicans and even many congressional Democrats have taken a hardline stance toward Beijing, Biden has seemed more interested in making concessions in order to encourage Chinese compliance with the left’s environmental agenda.

All of these factors mean that Taiwan could be entering a uniquely dangerous moment in its history – something which, given the United States’ reliance on Taiwanese semiconductors and other high-tech products, could quickly become a dangerous situation for Americans as well.

While the Taiwan-China conflict is currently taking a back seat to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, it could explode at any time into the most pressing issue facing the U.S. and the world.

Andrew Shirley is a veteran speechwriter and AMAC Newsline columnist. His commentary can be found on X at @AA_Shirley.