No Lead Is Safe—”It Ain’t Over ’til It’s Over”

AMAC Exclusive – By Barry Casselman

Baseball and politics have big differences, but one thing they share is that no lead is safe.

As Major League Baseball fans know, this past season, there were numerous dramatic examples of teams leading by 3,4,5,6,7 and even 8 runs going into the 8th and 9th innings and still losing.

Yogi Berra, the New York Yankees Hall of Fame catcher and batters box philosopher, even immortalized the phenomenon when he once proclaimed “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over!”

Yogi was no political pundit, but those who are, and are covering the current national midterm election cycle that will end only a few weeks from now, might benefit from his pithy insight.

So might many Democrats and a few Republicans as well — candidates and their strongest supporters — who only a few months or weeks ago enjoyed what were generally thought to be insurmountable leads and “certain” election.

The 2022 election cycle has seen alternating predictions of a “red” (Republican) wave, then “blue” (Democratic) surges, then “too close to call.”

The “evidence” for these predictions are the usual suspects of too much historical precedent, unusual political gaffes, personal revelations both true and false — and of course (questionable) political polls.

This does not rule out that historical patterns are sometimes useful to cite, or that some gaffes are so egregious they make a difference, or that personal character is important — or that a few polls are actually accurate.

Every national mid-term cycle has its own set of characteristics, however, and the 2022 election has its own unique context.

This is the first post-pandemic election (2020 took place during the health crisis). The incumbent president has been regarded quite unfavorably almost since taking office. The stock market is in “bear” (declining) territory. The U.S. Supreme Court, after decades of liberal decisions, has become conservative, and earlier this year issued a landmark decision reversing Roe v. Wade. There is a crisis at the nation’s southern border, with a huge influx of undocumented immigrants. Interest rates, for years held very low, are rising sharply. Inflation is rising significantly and so far is unchecked. Schools, government institutions and language use itself are under attack. The international environment is undergoing a transformational period, with serious economic and military challenges to American leadership.

Is it any wonder that a national election taking place under these circumstances is so difficult to predict?

Only a few weeks ago, before Labor Day but after the primaries were largely over, there was a rash of polls in numerous U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in particular that indicated large leads for many Democrats in races previously rated as competitive. Combined with liberal pundit analyses, this provided a narrative of a late-breaking blue surge.

After Labor Day, however, Democratic optimism has somewhat faded, as new polls and reports on the ground signal that some kind of red wave might indeed be forming. Large leads, usually by double digits in polls, often evaporated, and some trailing candidates have even surged ahead.

History suggests that the party in power, currently the Democrats who control the U.S. House and Senate, lose seats in a midterm election, especially when their incumbent president has a net unfavorable rating among voters. President Joe Biden’s rating, which did enjoy a small surge before Labor Day, remains now in the low 40s.

Hoping to defy history, Democrats have relied heavily on the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade to rouse pro-choice Democrats to the polls, and thus outweigh the historical Republican advantage. It might indeed make a difference in some districts and states, but issue polling, so far, indicates inflation, urban crime, and education and parents rights are more determinative for most voters.

With a bit more than three weeks to go, and with all nominees in place, campaign strategies are in full operation, political advertising is mostly reserved, and fundraising largely committed. Polls from now on, provided they are large enough samples and use likely voters only, will be much more useful than earlier in the cycle when samples were irregular and only registered voters were polled. The establishment polls’ past tendency to undermeasure Republican voters also will be tested again, especially in polls published just before the election when they will be most compared to actual results.

Finally, candidates still do matter, and even if there is a red wave or a blue surge, weak or inept nominees will lose no matter what their party affiliation is.

Just before Election Day, Major League Baseball’s World Series will be concluded. Already in the playoffs, there have been some dramatic come-from-behind victories — reinforcing once again that no lead is safe.

Hold the champagne, wait on measuring new office drapes — the voters have the last word.