The American two-party system is built around the old British principle of a party of the “court” that is in power and a party of the “country” representing those who wish to replace those currently in office, not to overthrow them. A loyal opposition, which wishes to extract concessions or shift the balance of power within the system, is tolerated. A revolutionary opposition, which threatens to shake up the entire system, is not tolerated. Candidates with the support of only a minority of the American elite such as Richard Nixon, Teddy Roosevelt, or Ronald Reagan, are tolerated, though often undermined. Those who are viewed as a threat to the entire system – i.e., Donald Trump – are a different matter.
Since the founding of the United States, a loose alignment of professionals, businessman, politicians, and local elites who hold social power has proved remarkably effective at uniting to prevent candidates who do not accept the premises of the system, or, more often, do not understand them, from reaching the presidency. From Alexander Hamilton to Patrick Henry, Bernie Sanders, Tulsi Gabbard, Ron Paul, Pat Buchanan, and Ross Perot, these candidates are isolated and painted as a danger.
Occasionally, however, they will win a major party nomination. That happened in 1896 when Williams Jennings Bryan captured the Democratic nomination and in 1964 when Barry Goldwater won the Republican nod. In both cases, the candidates found themselves crushed under the weight of a financial and social mobilization unprecedented for decades.
This was precisely what was supposed to happen in 2016 when Donald Trump won the Republican nomination. Had the 2016 election resulted in the expected victory for Hillary Clinton, voters would have been reminded that going against the preferences of college-educated professionals is fatal.
Democrats, too, would have been reminded that with the support of that constituency, a candidate as flawed as Hillary Clinton can become president. The Republican Party would have obediently nominated a moderate, pro-business, pro-establishment candidate in 2020, and by strategically swinging between the two parties, white college graduates would have maintained their control of both.
That is not what happened. Donald Trump won, and in doing so, he risked doing something more. If he showed that it was possible to win without the approval of elites, then it was possible politics would polarize along educational lines. If he succeeded in winning again after having done so, it would potentially break their power permanently.
Forget abortion. Forget mean tweets. Forget Putin. The unprecedented mobilization of largely white college graduates in the professional sphere after January of 2017 was an act of self-defense. When they spoke of Donald Trump as an existential threat to norms, they meant their ability to set norms for American society. When they talked of a threat to “our democracy,” they meant the two-party system as it has functioned in American history.
Policy did not matter. Higher taxes did not matter. Riots did not matter. They needed to show that Donald Trump could not win again, and they were willing to burn down the entire country to do it.
There is more at stake than the presidency this November. If Donald Trump loses, Republican politicians and voters will look at the $600 million Kamala Harris has raised since entering the race and conclude they cannot financially compete with that sort of power, even with an Elon Musk. They will be convinced that it is not possible to win a national election without the support of the elites and spend the next decade seeking to bid against the Democrats for their favor. They have tried four times to build a new coalition of African American and Latino men, working-class whites, and Asians, and even when it has delivered votes, it has been difficult to compete with the institutional power wielded by the professional classes.
The likely outcome of a Trump loss would be that the MAGA project would be abandoned. Republicans will give up on efforts to appeal to the non-white voters, who Democrats will be able to safely ignore along with rural America, as both compete to win over the corporate water cooler and golf course vote. After all, isn’t the definition of insanity repeating the same approach over and over again expecting a different outcome?
It will not matter if Republicans feel the game is rigged. If someone is powerful enough to set the rules, then those are the rules. If the GOP is too weak to do anything about Democrats changing voting rules in the middle of campaigns or manipulating media coverage, then Republicans need to figure out a way to win with those rules. Which means appeasing, not defying, those formidable enough to set them. The institutional Republicans would see such an outcome as proof that it is time to ask for terms.
Those terms would be a repudiation of everything the party has tried to stand for since 2016. So-called “conservatives” who somehow believe that Donald Trump’s defeat will usher in a new age of Reagan, rather than the rise of an American David Cameron, are delusional. As are pro-lifers who believe that a defeat will lead the party to retreat from Trump’s moves toward the middle of the electorate. In fact, everyone would know who and what (money) defeated him if he loses, and the money, by almost a ten-to-one margin, is on the pro-abortion side. So are the suburban voters, not because they are ideologues, but because forcing the base to drop their pro-life position will be proof of their submission. A candidate abandoning the pro-life cause in 2028 will be the required proof that the GOP is sorry for having scorned them.
There are those who will argue this neo-Romneyism will be a dead-end, having already proven electorally fruitless in 2008 and 2012. If so, MAGA and populist conservatism can merely wait out a cycle and return when the “New Republican” loses in 2028. That is a dangerous assumption, because there is every likelihood this brand of “conservatism,” having been suitably domesticated, will be allowed to succeed, much as David Cameron’s toothless Toryism was in the U.K.
For all the talk about Republicans becoming a permanent minority party, that is not in the interests of those funding Harris’s campaign, or those who installed Joe Biden in 2020. The power of the elites depends on the willingness of a certain group of voters, primarily college-educated voters, to swing between the parties in such a way as to punish defiance with defeat. Donald Trump’s victory did not just undermine their influence in the GOP. By denying the elites the ability to threaten to defect from the GOP, it threatened their leverage with Democrats, something they realized to their horror after 2020. They will be overjoyed to accept the surrender of the Republican Party and to champion the comeback story of a “new Republican.”
Championing a Republican David Cameron in 2028 would solidify elite control of both parties. Rewarding submission with political power would entrench the new Republican approach. Reminding the Democrats that the financial and structural advantages they enjoy exist at the sufferance of others will prevent the party from beginning to dream about dangerously revolutionary ideas. The ultimate goal, the restoration of the Bush/Clinton status quo, will have been achieved.
For those who conflate American democracy with a two-party system in which one party serves the interests of professional elites in office while the other auditions to do better, that is a restoration of norms. For anyone who actually cares about the entropy that system produced – failing cities, rising debt, the hollowing out of American manufacturing, falling birthrates, fentanyl, and the steady expansion of Chinese power – it will be a disaster. As much of a disaster as the last 14 years of “conservative” rule proved in the U.K., or Merkel’s 16 years of “conservative” government proved for Germany.
Herein lies the opening for Donald Trump. Plenty of high-income white college graduates are willing to cast their ballots for Kamala Harris despite disagreeing with her on policy in order to entrench their own power. But there are far greater millions of Americans who do not like or agree with Donald Trump but who have everything to lose from his defeat and everything to gain from his victory.
African American and Hispanic men will find their concerns ignored when Republicans have abandoned efforts to appeal to them and Democrats can take their support for granted. More likely, they will find themselves in the position they were in during the 1990s: punching bags for both parties.
By contrast, if Donald Trump is victorious and, more importantly, victorious with their support, they will find themselves at the center of American politics. An American politics where rural America, non-white men, and conservative women are no longer the forgotten Americans but its decisive swing voters. Donald Trump needs to make clear that what is at stake is not his own future, or that of the Republican Party, but the future of every demographic but the one who ruled America for decades before 2016, and has now set the country on fire in a bid to restore its power.
Democrats are right about one thing. Democracy is on the ballot this November.
Walter Samuel is the pseudonym of a prolific international affairs writer and academic. He has worked in Washington as well as in London and Asia, and holds a Doctorate in International History.
If Trump loses, all of those moronic, brainwashed, pro-socialism youth are going to find out, the HARD way, just how incredibly naive, stupid or both, they really were.
Kiss any semblance of liberty goodbye and be prepared to be devastated by taxation; have to pay for those millions and millions of unvetted invaders somehow.
The sad part is that this is all to true and that so many American people are just to stupid to see it right in front of their face ,,, The rest of whats left of freedom will be gone in 4 more years ,, God bless our lost Republic ,,
Just received a video about what’s happening in the Denver area. The “governor” Polis had turned downtown Denver into a “homeless camp”. This morning I learned that a very aggressive and ugly gang has literally taken over Aurora and no doubt branching into other areas. This is all on the backs of the demorats and their quest to rule this country. I have family just on the other side of the county line, fortunately well armed.
IF this happens, America will be another Cuba or Communist China. Our nation is under attack unlike any time in it’s history save when England was still attacking the east coast new towns in the beginning. The thugs have taken over apartment complexes, Target stores, they’re armed and dangerous. I pray they don’t try anything in the southern part of the state…although my county is pretty well armed…of course the demorat “governor” like other demorat “governors” are doubling down on disarming this state.
Bottom line; Trump absolutely must be our next president come hell or high water! Harris is a Marxist and her homey is no better. She is singularly un-American but of course the leftist traitors are determined to put her in the dictator’s seat. Be aware, be vigilant, be ready for anything if you’re cursed to have a demorat governor.
God bless and protect.
Please don’t call them elites! They are not! Nor are they progressives. They are power hungry submersives intent on destroying the founding principles of the USA.
If Trump loses, the United States of America are over, and the millenial and whatever term they call the generation after will have squandered what all the generations before them have worked, sweated, and bled for, only to become the serfs and slaves of the most ignorant, and incompetent filthy rich fools who ever called themselves “elite”. Communism is nothing but the exploitation of all by the very few, while denying them any chance to ever better themselves, or their offspring.
If Trump loses, it will mean that the election was once again stolen, and our country will become a banana republic. We the law-abiding People will be forced to become outlaws and fight the communist-run law enforcement and military personnel we currently respect in order to protect our rights, when they come to confiscate our firearms. It’s a terrifying thought.
It is so important to vote for President Trump and at the same time vote the entire Republican party. Because we stand a good chance of winning the Senate and probably keeping the House. So while I think Trump is the winner if we turn out I think it is important to pull the rest of the ballot too. If you remember 2020 many of these hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballot cheatings going on in blue states only had biden checked and no other democrat checked. That was a clue of cheating right there. So, my point is that if Trump were to lose and we got the Senate and/or kept the House we could hobble the 2 commies pretty much from getting anything except executive orders. MAGA
I have been telling friends and family for years that this day was coming, when we would have to choose between freedom and big Government.
It’s a simple choice do you believe in freedom of Religion or Atheism or Islam only, do you believe in freedom of Speech and Freedom of Press or made to be Silent, do you believe that you have a right to teach your children your family values or what the Government wants to indoctrinate with, do you believe that you have a right to determine what medical procedures you children will have or a right of self-defense or rely on Government to protect you 24-7-365, do you believe that we should live in a sovereign nation or one where any one including terrorist to enter un-checked and kill at will, we enjoy so many freedom in this country do we want to give any of them up or do we want to be like Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and many others repressive Governments,
I chose Freedom of Religion, speaking my own mind, I chose making the determination on my family’s future and health care, and what they believe, I believe in the right of self-defense, I believe I should live in a sovereign nation free of fear of people who should not be in my country,
The Government belongs to you and me we tell the Government what we as Citizen want the Government does not tell us what they want.
The choice is clear it’s not about President Trump, it is about the freedom of this Nation, so all the freedom loving people who hate Trump and want vote for him, all I can say is you will give up freedom for bondage,
I will vote Streight Republican!
God Bless America!
And the USA will end up like Argentina, Cuba, Venezuela, etc. Ruined.
The elites want to make this about Trump ,but it’s not!!!! you can defeat Trump by cheating all you want !! How many of those collage educated white people are going to be willing to pick up arms for what they think they are entitled to???? This is not about Trump supporters , it is about we the people fighting for our way of life !! We the people are way more than half the country !! and then how many of the military have realized that our govt. is not worth fighting for , but our way of life is worth fighting for !! This election is about our rights and way of life !!!! Notice I didn’t say democracy , we are a constitutional Republic !!!!!!
It is time for everyone to familiarize themselves with the second paragraph of the Declaration of Independence. It is also time to read President Calvin Coolidge’s speech in 1926 at the anniversary of the Declaration. Everything we need to remain patriotic and useful American citizens is contained in the Declaration, Coolidge’s speech and in the Constitution. It is also time to insist that our local representatives in Congress live up to their oaths of office and follow the tenets of the Founding Fathers. I delivered three books about World War II to a military library this week. The staff were amazed at the photos. They commented that not one of the youngsters who visits the museum has any knowledge of or about WWII. They called the children “blank slates”. I call them: Voter drones. If Harris-Walz win, we can call ourselves, shortly, as living in a Marxist country.
The word “elite” really has only one definition -IGNORANT OR STUPID WITH NO UNDERSTANDING OF OUR CONSTITUTIONAL LIMITS ON GOVERNMENT NOR OF HUMAN HISTORY.
These knucklehead “elites” who are backing the Harris/Walz ticket are most probably globalist/communist control freaks who want America under their control so they can destroy us economically. They are close to succeeding with our national debt approaching $36 trillion dollars.
In my humble opinion, no one should be allowed to vote unless they are 30 or more years old, own property and pay property tax and can pass a test on current events, America’s glorious history and our Constitution.
Time to wake up America. We have almost lost our Constitutional Republic: that is very obvious with trash like Harris and Walz running for our two (2) highest offices.
Elites ruling unchallenged for decades if Trump loses? That’s a scary thought considering what the elites have already done to us. Higher taxes, EV mandates, soft-on crime policies, open borders. NO THANK YOU!
Round 2?? Democrats, too, would have been reminded that with the support of that constituency, a candidate as flawed as Hillary Clinton can become president. NO…Vote the communists out and save the Republic and OUR children from years of destructive contro over them and US!!
This is a frightening view of our political culture, but I don’t doubt it’s veracity. Even if Trump wins this election, the elites will continue to try to destroy him. Trump is strong and brave, but he’s getting old. Who will carry on? Is Vance up to this task that might destroy his life?
It’s amazing that people are SO dense that they listen to people who cannot tell you what a woman is or tell you that a baby in the womb is a living HUMAN being! As someone once said, “There’s no cure for STUPID!”
The nice thing about voting Democrat is… um… wait… uh… oh, I know! Venezuelan gangs have 2nd Amendment rights in Colorado and patrol your apartment complex to keep out the riff raff. In California, they’ll help kids off school busses whether they want off or not. Vote Kamala, yo!
Ill sum up more simply: the dems are on the threshold of regaining a monopoly on congress they held for forty yrs. Only this time there will be no eisenhauers or nixons. Theyre tired of even the facade of power sharing. This is russia 1917 , china 1949 or cuba 1959. Theyre going for all the marbles.
TRUTH & we lose if occurs very scary
I hope and pray Americans will wake up before it’s too late. This country was conservative and we enjoyed our freedoms and prosperity. But when those in charge make evil decisions. We are in big trouble!
I’m not in love with Trump but I do believe he is better for this country because he loves it.
Too many people who have wedged their way into this country with progressive ideas of changing it all. Way too many have been given naturalized citizenship-look at how many in our US Congress that spout anti- US Constitution statements!
The progressive/socialist party [formerly the Democrat Party] has one goal and one goal only, and that’s to have a single party dictatorship the same as their ideological champion, Russia. They will, however, allow other political parties to exist, but only to pretend to be fair and open. But, they’ll restrict them as far as having any actual say in how the country is managed.
sad that because the voters who vote for the left just do it bc they hate Trump – wth. yeah they are nutz to but can’t believe that people really want to turn this country into hell hole
I would wish everyone would quit callng these traitors ELITES. To me an elite is someone who is good and faithful to the positions they hold.
Lord help us if that cacklin’ idiot gets elected. VOTE TRUMP!!!
Interesting and provocative article. I pray God allows Trump to take back this country and restore us to one nation under God.
Should it happen I am taking action now to prepare…are you? OR will you be just like the fools that believe everything will be just rainbows and teddy bears. Sorry if that insults anyone but it is way behind the time that you need to be preparing and creating backup plans to the backup plans.
The elites have destroyed Donald Trump the man. A concerted effort started with O in 2008 to destroy the country and the Republican Party was their target. They had thought inept Hillary would continue in 2016 but Trump won. The elites bought the election in 2020 and installed Brandon. All the while making Trump the enemy of the state. Hatred comes out of their mouth because they have to. Millions of dollars have been paid to them to do the elites bidding. Follow the money. Ole Joe made millions, P made millions in the stock market by insider trading. In politics it is not what you know who you know. What this article described was the 2020 election to a tee. It was bought by the elites and they are doing it again. They found another puppet that can follow orders. She has no clue as to how to run an office let alone a country. She is just a figure head. Trump hasn’t changed his vision for America. Harris has changed her mind in the last 2 weeks daily. 600 million so far is what it cost to install their next puppet. That is what it cost, this election cycle, to make Trump the enemy of the state. They can’t define what a woman is but an inept black woman is touted as the first woman who is black to be president. People we have seen this coming since 2008 the destruction of America. It has nothing to do with Trump he is just the one that is standing in their way. They are after you to make you obey them. What O did was mild compared to ole Joe and Kameltoe, they are getting more brazen all the time. Don’t give in to the money grabbing elites that want to run the world. Their lies and their money can’t win so long we still can vote. Trump needs to win in a landslide in order to eradicate the all powerful elites that want to rule the world. TRUMP/VANCE IN 2024 to save America and its people.
We don’t have a border, anyone can cross as they please, border patrol agents became social workers, police are not allowed to do their job, justice system lets the criminal go but punishes law obeying citizens, we deliberately are divided by color of the skin, I won’t say sex because that is a complete lunacy, I am not sure anyone is home at the WH , America has been thrown from the saddle and the only knight left is being prevented from getting back up. .How can we depend on China and kiss Arabs ring? We owe money left, right and center, we don’t manufacture anything and try to stop mother nature doing what she has always done To fix this we would have to stand like one man roll our sleeves up and report on duty. We are so fragmented and divided deliberately that it might not be possible Jewish students are openly attacked on campus with the administration playing three monkeys. No consequences for the attackers. This is only one step from fascism It’s time those belonging to it and supporting it started to call themselves that and stop hiding behind the vail of democracy. Democrats right now are coalition of socialists, communists and fascists. Tell it to the voter and let him decide.
The writer rightly mentions the illegal voting law changes made in 2020 but fails to mention the elephant in the room, the outright voting fraud with the mail out ballots and drop boxes. In fact Biden admitted as much during one of his mental lapses when he said they had put together one of the biggest voter fraud organizations in the history of the country. Biden was installed as president and they will try to install Harris.
the only way Trump would lose is bc the idiot left would cheat cheat cheat
I wear my MAGA hat when I go out, and people comment positively for Trump, about 85% say when I ask them if they vote, say they don’t. All people care about is their own daily routines and can’t see that by not voting, is voting for some one that does not reflect their views of where we are going as a country. We have to give them a lesson on how important this election is.
it won’t be for decades. it will be forever and until the people grow some balls and take the government back from socialism.
How can these people who will be voting for an idiot like her be that stupid? I’m very thankful that my family and all of the relatives that I know, are still in their right minds. They know where she will continue to take our country, but what the ones she’s deceiving do not know is that she cares nothing about anybody but herself.
…the vehemence against MAGA is because it was a project to unilaterally expand a country’s Political Nation, like how historically a Land Reform Bill or a Franchise Reform project saw sudden mobilization against it across all members of a political system, in or out of power (Hungary, Great Britain, Spain).
That explains so much. It may explain everything.