Sometimes canoeing flat water, you hear rapids on the wind, maybe far off, maybe not so far off. A wise navigator plans. As Republicans squeaked Speaker Johnson out last week, we heard rapids. Even with Trump as President, expect rough water.
Only twice in American history has the US House been as closely divided as it is now – by five votes after the 2024 election, two following Congressman Gaetz (R-FL) resigning and assuming Congressmen Stefanik (R-NY) and Waltz (R-FL) accept positions in the Trump Administration.
That means, on the best day – assuming no deaths, illnesses, or resignations, – Republicans can only lose two votes if they have a five-vote margin, one if a three-vote margin, none if less.
In 1917, as WWI raged, the balance of seats in the US House was held by Democrats – with three progressives and a socialist. They had a one-vote margin. In 1931 Republicans stood at 218, Democrats 216, with one Farmer’s Party seat.
Under such circumstances, anything can happen – and fast. While Democrats held that 1917 majority by coalition and widened it in 1918, Republicans quickly lost their 1931 majority.
The Wilson Democrats held their slim margin in 1917, allowing Wilson to push his Progressive ideas, League of Nations, and other leftwing priorities, some racist.
On the other hand, Republicans quickly lost their two-seat majority in 1931, after three special elections, permitting Franklin Roosevelt to push socialist legislation.
Democrats held their US House majority – once they overpowered the 1931 Republicans – for the next 63 years, with brief breaks in 1946 and 1952, until Republicans launched the “Contract with America” in 1994, and flipped 52 seats.
The main point is – or at least should be – sobering: The Republican margin of control in the US House is highly tenuous at best, and could easily prove fleeting.
Even if Republicans maintain control for two years, the risk is high that they lose control in 2026, as mid-term cycles tend to cost the sitting president’s party.
So, what does that mean? Three things, all serious.
First, Republicans must recognize – as Democrats always have – that party discipline, conscious efforts at cohesion, and party unity – are vital. Without a commitment to party unity over personal agendas, the majority is meaningless.
Second, time is of the essence. Republicans could, on any given day, lose the majority and trifecta of the White House, Senate, and House. Every day should be D-Day, priority on speed in passing legislation that President Trump can sign.
Third, the next two years will be sobering. They leave little time for internal division. House Republicans must see “the perfect is the enemy of the good,” as Voltaire said. It is a “zero-sum game.” Democrats win if Republicans feud.
More could be written about how different the world might be if Democrats had not locked in control under Wilson in 1917 – or how different the 20th Century might have been if Republicans had not lost control in 1931.
But the main point, which needs nothing more, is simple: The nailbiter Speaker’s race last week, Trump-supporting Johnson and votes changed in the 11th hour, is prologue. We are soon in rapids. Republicans must prepare to pull together, to survive these rapids and beyond. Done right, we prevail; done wrong, we the House flips and we swamp.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC. Robert Charles has also just released an uplifting new book, “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024).
RBC,
A very good article on the need for all Republicans in Congress, not just in the House but the Senate as well, to focus on the larger, common goals that need to be accomplished in a relatively short time frame. History shows us we have approximately 12 to 18 months to get the vast majority of Trump’s MAGA agenda enacted into law via legislation. Something that is crucial to putting permanent safeguards in place against the next potential Democrat Presidency or Congress somewhere down the road.
Already we see a few of the usual RINOs in Congress, such has Lindsey Graham and yes even Senate Leader John Thune, making noises about the need to do what they want, which is multiple reconciliation bills, something that has rarely ever been successful, instead of one all-inclusive one which would be more likely to get through. In the House, we already have seen a few show boaters making unnecessary waves simply for some media attention given the expected outcome. So yes, it is crucial that Republicans in Congress remember why they are there and it’s NOT simply to get endlessly re-elected and trade stocks all day. So, it is the responsibility of the voters to keep all the members of the Republican controlled Congress, in both the House and the Senate, in line and focused on the goals that the people voted for.
RBC, as usual, if the Republicans stay sitting on their behinds instead of uniting for the people, the Demos will regain control to disrupt Pres. Trump’s agenda for his term which would basically be for naught to correct all the foolishness that the Demo party has done over the many years. Our country is definitely not out of the woods yet as the Demos will once again arise to destroy the nation with their socialist/communist manifesto.
We must give kudos to Marjorie Greene for announcing before the vote for Speaker this time that Johnson must be reelected because Trump must be able to hit the ground running with no distractions in this special time for action.
Greene may be unusual. but this time she was on target.
good article.
There are RINOS that only care about their own money and power. These will have to be weeded out.
Good Article!
President Trump won the Election.
Kamala Harris lost!
It’s obvious Americans want and need change.
Having open borders and a VP who Never went down to see what the Southern Border States were dealing with.
Trump is our hope! It’s going to be a tough 4 years. Under Kamala Administration I beleive The United States would have been Destroyed by these Liberal policies.
God Bless Donald J.Trump!
God Bless America!
We the people are not done!!! We voted Trump back in office, NOW we need to make certain that OUR representatives vote for US, not for power, fame or themselves. They will only do this if WE keep a spotlight on any Republican, and those moderate Dems that dare to join us, to keep them working FOR us and not against us! Call, write, email, text, post on social media, whatever it takes to get Congress working for US again. They keep quoting the mandate, but we need to force them to actually work for the mandate. Politics as usual cannot be the norm any longer and it is up to WE THE PEOPLE.
We must always remember that the Democratic Party has turn on Americans, must stay vigilant !
A lot more Democrats reading and commenting on this article. Something struck a nerve.
let’s hope that congress, all of them, will work together to upright the good ship USA.
lest we all drown.
Some republicans strive for the perfect, when good is all they should expect. Democrats stick together, even when they shouldn’t. What will be, will be, but I hope Trump can talk some of his common sense into them.
MAGA is in rough waters vs DC RNC Estd
While I agree with all of the comments that say we need the parties to start working together, I believe we are in a new era where that has become impossible. Ideology is the controlling factor. “If you don’t accept and follow my party’s ideology, you are evil and we will destroy you.” I’m not sure how we get past this but I do believe we will, although not for some time.
Very sage advice, worth following, from Mr. Charles…
What if common sense Republican successes are commonplace over the next two years?
you are wrong, democrats and republicans should pull together, not just republicans, that will lead to better outcomes and a more prosperous nation
there should be some apologies and changes, the democrats should apologize for being anti police and admit they were wrong, trump should apologize for the j6 insurrection which he started
i have a genius idea, how about the republicans work with the democrats to produce compromise bills and stop sucking up to trump