Democrats’ 2026 Prospects Are Getting Worse

After a rough general election cycle like the one Democrats just endured in 2024, opposition parties typically look to the midterm cycle to rebound, when the president’s party has historically struggled. But even with Republicans clinging to a razor-slim margin it the House, several high-profile Democrat retirements in the Senate could jeopardize the party’s ability to win back either chamber.

The latest blow to Democrats came earlier this month when New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen announced that she would not be seeking re-election. Shaheen is the third Senate Democrat to opt against another term, joining Gary Peters of Michigan and Tina Smith of Minnesota.

All three liberal senators likely would have been strong favorites to hang on to their seats, but the trio of retirements now means Democrats will have to devote more resources to winning those races – resources that are desperately needed elsewhere. While Republicans are defending 20 of the 33 Senate seats up for re-election in 2026, Thom Tillis of North Carolina is the only GOP member viewed as facing a true “toss-up” race.

With Republicans currently holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to flip four seats – without losing any of their own – to take control of the chamber. Even if Democrats can hang on in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota, Jon Ossoff is also facing a tough battle in Georgia, where he won with just 50.6 percent of the vote in a runoff election in 2021.

Democrats’ best odds for a flip outside of North Carolina would likely be in Ohio, where former Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted is running in a special election after Governor Mike DeWine tapped him to replace Vice President JD Vance. Though the Buckeye State has trended red in recent years, Democrats have had some success there in midterm cycles – most notably in 2018, when former Senator Sherrod Brown won re-election.

In 2024, Brown lost to Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, but he could look to make a comeback next year. Brown ran noticeably ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris, losing 50.09 percent to 46.47 percent, whereas Harris lost 55.14 percent to 43.93 percent.

But even if Democrats could flip North Carolina and Ohio, it’s unclear where two other flips would come from. In the traditional battleground of Florida, where former state attorney general Ashley Moody is running to fill the remainder of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s term, things look solid for Republicans. Democrat consultant types have once again begun insisting that the party can win in Texas, but those predictions are now famous for amounting to nothing on Election Day.

In every scenario except a historic “blue wave,” it appears the best Democrats could hope for would be limiting Republicans to a 51-49 majority.

Over in the House, things initially appeared rosier for Democrats, but the slate of retirements in the Senate has the GOP feeling more optimistic. As Axios reported earlier this month, “House Republicans are salivating over their chances in purple seats thanks to ambitious Democrats eyeing newly open Senate slots.”

“The math is in our favor,” National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson told the outlet. “We will capitalize on this momentum on the battleground and retain and grow our Republican majority.”

In New Hampshire, Democrat Reps. Chris Pappas and Maggie Goodlander are both reportedly interested in vying to replace Shaheen. Pappas won by eight points in a district rated R+2 last year, while Goodlander won by six points in a district rated D+2. Both seats would instantly become top Republican flip targets should they come open.

In Michigan, the top contender to replace Peters is likely incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who is term limited. But Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who just won a district that Trump also won, could also make a play for the seat, particularly if Whitmer opts against running.

In Ohio, Reps. Greg Landsman and Emilia Sykes are eyeing the Democrat nomination to take on Husted. Landsman won Ohio’s 1st House District by more than nine points last year after defeating incumbent Republican Steve Chabot by more than five points in 2022 (the seat notably shifted more Democratic following redistricting in 2020).

Sykes has won two straight close elections in the Ohio 13th House District after redistricting made it more competitive. Both seats will be top targets for Republicans next year regardless of whether Landsman and Sykes decide to run for Senate.

With control of the House once again expected to come down to a few key races, even a small number of House Democrats resigning to run for Senate could prove enormously consequential for the party. The nightmare scenario for Democrats is if one or more of these swing-district members fail to win their Senate race and then Republicans win the vacated seat.

Of course, outside factors such as the state of the economy and the political mood of the country heading into Election Day next year will play the biggest role in determining which party comes out on top. But Democrats nonetheless appear to be heading into the contest with some major strategic disadvantages.

Shane Harris is the Editor in Chief of AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.