Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli
Six months out from New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, Republicans are showing some subtle but persistent signs of life in a contest once viewed as a safe hold for Democrats.
Conventional political wisdom suggests Democrats should have a solid edge in the race. New Jersey is, after all, a solidly blue state. Additionally, state-level candidates who are of the opposite party of the incumbent president tend to perform well in years following national elections – another plus for whoever emerges from the Democrat primary on June 10.
In the latest primary polling, Rep. Mikie Sherrill has a comfortable lead at 28 percent support in the six-candidate field. With 24 percent still undecided, however, former State Senate President Stephen Sweeney, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, former teachers union president Sean Spiller, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka all still have a realistic shot at the nomination.
Early voting has indeed tilted heavily Democrat so far. About 222,000 voters have already returned mail-in ballots for the primaries, and nearly three-quarters of those ballots came from Democrats, according to NJ Spotlight News.
But some curious electoral history and bubbling conservative grassroots momentum may give Republicans reason for optimism. Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, who is term-limited, is finishing his second term in office. Since 1961, no party has managed to win the governorship three straight times.
New Jersey voter registration data from May also shows continued Republican gains, with the GOP 2,768 new registrations compared to 2,226 for Democrats. While Democrats still maintain a sizable lead with 2.45 million registered voters to the GOP’s 1.62 million, the gap is narrowing as the number of unaffiliated voters grows and Republicans steadily build momentum.
On the Republican ticket, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli has emerged as the frontrunner in the race, with 44 percent support. Conservative radio host Bill Spadea trails at 18 percent. Ciattarelli was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2021, when he came within three points of defeating Murphy – part of a broader national backlash against Democrats that year.
This year, Ciattarelli’s campaign was boosted by a high-profile endorsement from President Donald Trump, which has energized the GOP base and helped Ciattarelli with both name recognition and fundraising.
Affordability remains the defining issue in the race, with both parties pitching plans to address the state’s high cost of living and tax burden. According to an Emerson poll, 45 percent of New Jersey voters named the economy – including taxes – as their top concern, followed by housing affordability.
Democrat candidates are doubling down on higher taxes and expanded government programs, proposing new income tax brackets for high earners and increased taxes on estates, luxury goods, and high-value property sales. Their plans include increasing government spending on benefits, rebates, and tax credits for targeted groups like seniors and low- to middle-income families.
While some liberal candidates have advocated for efficiency audits and targeted tax relief, their broader agenda centers on growing the role of the state government and shifting more of the tax burden upward. Yet, after eight years of Democrat leadership, it’s unclear whether voters are still willing to buy into these promises.
Seizing on Murphy’s recent tax hike plan, Republican candidates are focusing their campaigns on lowering taxes, cutting state spending, and reforming education. They have proposed a range of measures, including reducing income and property taxes, cutting “pork” projects from the budget, expanding programs for seniors, and consolidating tax brackets.
Republicans have also called for greater efficiency in government and changes to public school funding, ranging from taking over struggling city districts to promoting school choice and lowering corporate taxes.
Meanwhile, national issues like crime, inflation, and illegal immigration continue to shape voter attitudes. Ultimately, the election will hinge on which party can better energize its base and win over independents seeking change.
Trump’s performance in New Jersey in 2024 may be another sign that the state isn’t as out of reach for Republicans as Democrats would like to believe. After losing there by nearly 16 points in 2020, Trump narrowed that margin to just six points last year.
Trump’s gains among young and Hispanic voters in particular may signal rising frustration with Democrat leadership – and a potential opening for Republicans. Tapping into widespread dissatisfaction with New Jersey’s high cost of living and mobilizing disaffected suburban voters could lead to an upset similar to Governor Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 victory in Virginia.
New Jersey’s governor’s race is both a referendum on Murphy’s tenure and a test of the state’s political future. Though Democrats enter the fall with a strong party base, structural advantages, and a history of winning, Republicans can capitalize on economic anxiety and a more competitive national climate to make their case.
With more voters perhaps up for grabs than previously thought, the GOP might have a rare chance to flip a reliably blue seat. It will now be up to the Republican nominee and the state party apparatus to bring a convincing message to newly on-the-fence voters between now and November 4.
Sarah Katherine Sisk is a proud Hillsdale College alumna and a master’s student in economics at George Mason University. You can follow her on X @SKSisk76.
When are people going to STOP voting for Demo Communists? China take over could really happen…Think for the sake of Humanity and Freedom!
Reality check from a GOP voter who lives in NJ: There is a world of difference between a Presidential election and an election of state Governor. Trump isn’t on the ballot in NJ, despite the hyperbole coming from the Democrats non-stop. President Trump chose to back Jack, because Jack is the least bad choice of the bunch of RINOs running on the GOP side in this race. That’s it. Being the least bad, means Jack has the highest probability of winning, if there was an actual level playing field on which to run on in this state. Which there isn’t.
The Democrats have spent decades building a series of political strongholds in this state. Places like Essex and Hudson counties, as well as several others, where the reliable “magic” always seems to happen to pull out a Democrat victory, via protracted counting and re-counting of the ballots, until the Democrat wins. The state Supreme Court, all Democrats by the way for decades, always rubber stamps the proceedings. The few convictions over the years for election fraud have been brought only as a result of federal proceedings. So that the playing field in this state. For reference, just look at the last time Jack went toe-to-toe against our hapless Governor Murphy. The Democrat Machine just kept counting and re-counting votes until Murphy was finally declared the winner.
In many ways, New Jersey is exactly like New York at this point. There are many people completely dissatisfied by utter destruction of the state at the hands of the Democrats and the RINOs, over the years, that helped along the way to put them there. Unfortunately, the few sane voters, who want real change, not just a wishy-washy stand-in for a few years, are vastly outnumbered by the ignorant and happily uniformed typical Democrat voters. All of whom mindlessly vote Democrat no matter what.
By the way, even should a Republican win the governorship in this state, he would be knee-capped by the fact the State Legislature and the State Supreme Court are both completely dominated by Democrats. So, no real legislative change could be enacted and even, if by some miracle, something managed to get through the Legislature, the Democrat controlled State Supreme Court would declare it unconstitutional and void. They’ve done it before. Again, in many ways just like New York is today. We just sit on the other side of the Hudson River.
IF NJ USES ANY COMPUTER TABULATION MACHINES, YOU CAN FORGET ANY REPUBLICAN WINNING ANY POSITION THAT THE DEM-O-RATS DON’T WANT YOU TO WIN!!!!!
I grew up there and can tell you the thick blue wall is real. A conservative Republican has to fight 20x harder to make an impact. We have had Republicans in office but most if not all were moderate Republicans. They typically have a better chance of getting through the thick blue wall (remember Chris Christie). While a moderate Republican is not ideal and Bill Spadea sounds like the better option it is better than another democrat. What would it take to smash the thick blue wall? People need to reach their breaking point and say ENOUGH!!! Until that happens they will get more of the same.
When will a tax paying voter realize that a big government is a reason, not a solution for the problem and that as it grows so do the problems and taxes.
Most of the Democrat candidates’ ads in New Jersey emphasize how they will fight Trump. They promise to lower taxes, but don’t say how they will reduce expenses or pay for programs with less tax revenue. Fighting Trump with more lawsuits seems to benefit lawyers mostly.
Jack Chinarelli is THE LAST THING NJ NEEDS! When you keep doing what you’re doing, you keep getting what you’re getting! The mess NJ is in right now is from POLITICIANS! We need strong voice of the people, common sense, fiscal responsibility and someone who isn’t in bed with Big Pharma, China and, special interest groups. That ain’t Jack! Vote BILL SPADEA!!!
It is a mystery to me how anyone who wants to live free from government reach, destroy the American family, fight against DHS because they want to keep heinous, criminal illegal immigrants here, hate the Jews and Christians, push for deviant sexual content to be shown in our schools, and allow anyone to vote I our elections can still vote for Democrats. I hope that enough of the Democrats will become sane again and vote to elect the GOP for a change!
One can only hope the citizens will give the GOP a shot.
WE have come close recently/ One would think with all the DISASTERS created by DIMMs that people would WAKE UP! Of course, the DIMMs start out with a sizeable number of dead people and illegal immigrants!
When will the democrats ever stop their communist tactics? Never. Not till they are defeated in the House and Senate and state Houses. It’s up to the voters what America will be like in 2026 and beyond. What is going on now I see a dark future for America. We had 4 years of lies and now they are working on twisting those lies into truths via the judiciary system. We the people, dems, independents and reps need to step up in 2026, if not, America is doomed and we all better learn to speak Chinese.
HIGH TAXES, HIGH CRIME NEVER seem to bother Damnocrap voters. It’s simply a mental disorder, compounded by TDS, and a complete and total lack of common sense.
WISE UP NJ, THROW THE CORRUPT DEM BUMS OUT.
Don’t hold your breath because New Jersey is in the same brainless liberal boat New York and California are. It would take a miracle from Heaven for it to happen.
New Jersey, the state of foolish voters, will continue to punish themselves by voting for democrats.
Just hoping for the best!
If republicans don’t flee the communist state before the election, they had best vote out the libtards!
After all that went on lately, anyone who votes democrat should have their head examined.
if a republican wins the NJ governor’s race, I will be absolutely shocked. also. when has government ever made anything more affordable?
Ever since I saw what horror Democrats were capable of in 1994 when Democrat “President” William Jefferson Clinton presided over the 51 days of slaughter in Waco, Texas…I hear folks talk about life changers….that was mine.
Democrats are the sworn enemies of our Constitutional Republic, particularly our Bill of Rights IE: our 2nd. Amendment as our Democrat “governor” of Colorado has spewed out more anti-gun laws than literally every other state. Everything that our Founders knew to be just, right, and for the good of the nation, that what the democrats goal is, is an anathema to all that is a free and prosperous nation. The democrat party is unequivocally anti-Founders, anti-American and ultimately anti-freedom.
Forgive me if I repeat myself: the democrat party went to war to keep their slaves. They are the party of bridge hangings, cross burnings, white robes and masks and so much more…the more I see of what they say and do, that they lie and cover up, attempt to push what our God has called an abomination on citizens and children, a deliberately weakened criminal justice system, schools that have abandoned American history, the basics, riots at “colleges”…I have no doubts are other routes to disarming and controlling law abiding citizens. The 2nd. Amendment is only after free speech…
Right now the democrats, I truly believe, are and will do everything and anything to stop Trump and I fear they might even try to “eliminate” him again…there have already been two unsuccessful attempts on his life. President Ronald Reagan was shot but thank God he wasn’t killed. President John F. Kennedy was assassinated; though he was a democrat he often went against the party. He is the only democrat I feel truly had our nation’s best interests at heart.
Don’t just look at this day or week. Look back at our own history in the last century and our 21st. century. One other thing that’s sad but not unexpected: so many democrats don’t even know their own history. No doubt also deliberate by the party “elites” that also extend to those on a “higher plain”.
Try to look at the larger picture, and history must be a part of that picture. The information is out there but you must dig a little deeper. We will lose this country, unless there is a concentrated effort to get educated on even just recent (last century) history and be prepared to fight back…one other thing I’ve learned in my 80 years, it can consume you, but as one man so rightly said: “If you don’t know history, you’re doomed to repeat it.”
Dictators, absolute tyrants from the dawn of time, have been sensitive to arms in the hands of the people.” Author unknown…probably shot to death.
One last thought: the most important of all…God must be over all, He knows all, and we will all stand before Him and give an account of ourselves. He created us and gave us life, free will…to do right, or do wrong. To love or to hate, to make right what has been made wrong. We all have choices…chose wisely…they will be your eternity.
New Jersey will be so-ooo thankful should they vote for a change from Democrat to this Republican. Everywhere you find Democrat Control, you discover problems after problems. They’re ill-equipped, unqualified (beholders of College Degrees that are as worthless as the paper it’s printed on!), having absolutley no common sense nor anything in regards to a Christian Moral Compass, you want Governing. Devoid of the Science-of-Reasoning you question what evil demonic spirit has gotten control of their free wills, as a bridle in every which way they are jerked towards. May sanity be restored to the needs of New Jerseyans. Vote for Jack Ciattarelli!
Hope the Republicans win New Jersey; the democrats have corrupted the state for too many years. The dishonest democrat state senators and governors have done enough harm to NJ.
Needed unless voters like NJ Corruption
Remember Chris Christie? How did that work out for New Jersey?
Welcome to the weekend; the trolls are back. Just ignore them.