Architect of “Massachusetts Miracle” Looks to Flip New Hampshire Senate Seat Red

Former U.S. Senator Scott Brown has tossed his hat in the ring for New Hampshire’s 2026 Senate contest, injecting new energy into a race many Republicans had feared was a lost cause after Governor Chris Sununu opted against a bid of his own. Brown’s announcement, first reported by WMUR, makes him the most recognized figure in the Republican field so far.

Brown is of course most famous for leading a shocking political upset in 2010, when he defeated Attorney General Martha Coakley in a special election for a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts – a victory that critically ended Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority. Though Brown would go on to lose to incumbent Senator Elizabeth Warren in 2012, he became the first and only Republican to win a Senate race in the Bay State since 1972.

Brown moved to Rye, New Hampshire the following year and came within three points of defeating Democrat Senator Jeanne Shaheen in 2014. He then served as President Donald Trump’s Ambassador to New Zealand from 2017 to 2020.

In his campaign announcement on social media, Brown said he’s running “to restore common sense, keep our border secure, and fight for our New Hampshire values.” He also praised President Donald Trump for sealing the border, standing up to China, and restoring our standing in the world.

Sununu’s decision not to run left GOP strategists scrambling for a candidate with money, message, and name recognition. Brown checks all three boxes. He brings national fundraising clout, a centrist voting record suited to New Hampshire’s large bloc of Independent voters, and the muscle memory of his 2010 Senate win in Massachusetts, where he shocked the political establishment in both parties.

No heavyweight rival has entered the GOP primary, though attorney Phil Taub and former state Senator Dan Innis are reportedly considering bids. Brown said he would “love the president’s endorsement” but isn’t banking on it, telling WMUR, “There’s no assurances in anything in life at all.”

With Shaheen retiring, Republicans have renewed hope that they can win the open seat. The last Republican to hold a U.S. Senate seat in the Granite State was Kelly Ayotte, who lost re-election to incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan in 2016.

The Democrat side is led by four-term Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01), who began a listening tour days after Shaheen bowed out. Freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (NH-02) considered entering the race but announced in April that she will not run.

Pappas casts himself as a bipartisan problem-solver, and the Lugar Center ranked him the most bipartisan House Democrat in 2023, according to the New Hampshire Bulletin. But Pappas nonetheless brings plenty of baggage with him into the race, including votes for former President Joe Biden’s inflationary and open borders policies.

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted June 19-23 found voters split 36 percent favorable and 36 percent unfavorable on Pappas. Brown polled at 12 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable – numbers his aides blame on a decade off the ballot, according to Newsweek. In that poll, most voters had no opinion on Brown, indicating that he could have plenty of room to improve his standing.

New Hampshire is politically idiosyncratic. Republicans hold the governorship and both legislative chambers, creating a GOP “trifecta” since 2021. Yet the party has not won a U.S. Senate race here since Kelly Ayotte’s 2010 victory. Democrats have carried the state in the last six presidential elections, though margins have tightened – Kamala Harris won 51-48 percent in 2024, down from Joe Biden’s 53-45 percent four years earlier.

That split ticket habit explains why every major forecaster lists the open seat as competitive. The Cook Political Report rates it as Lean Democratic, Sabato’s Crystal Ball agrees, and Inside Elections tags it Battleground Democratic.

Brown backs the Sununu-era tax cuts and argues that Washington’s “over-taxation and overregulation” are stifling small firms.

Pappas supported President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and later credited its green energy subsidies with bringing jobs to Portsmouth Naval Shipyard.

In 2016, Brown was quick to endorse Donald Trump and has emphasized the importance of securing the border and enforcing immigration laws, including deporting illegal aliens.

Brown says he’s prepared to challenge likely Democratic nominee Rep. Chris Pappas and draw a sharp contrast on key issues. “I do not want to raise taxes. I don’t like more and more regulations,” Brown told WMUR.

“I want to protect women in their sports…I also want to make sure that we have a secure border. I want to deport the people that are here illegally, hurting and taking our benefits that they’re not entitled to.” He argued Pappas “is in the complete opposite camp on virtually everything.”

New Hampshire traditionally holds its primaries on the second Tuesday in September—likely Sept. 8 next year—though the date has not been formally set. The general election will be November 3, 2026.

Campaign strategists expect total spending to exceed $100 million if both national party committees fully engage, putting the Granite State among the cycle’s most expensive battlegrounds. With control of the Senate likely hinging on a few states, the odds of Republicans maintaining power increase dramatically if they are able to flip New Hampshire.

Sarah Katherine Sisk is a proud Hillsdale College alumna and a master’s student in economics at George Mason University. You can follow her on X @SKSisk76.