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Did Putin Kill Prigozhin?

Posted on Monday, August 28, 2023
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by AMAC, Robert B. Charles
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22 Comments
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Yevgeny Prigozhin with Vladimir Putin

Oddly aligned with history is the sudden death of Putin’s internal opponent, onetime-friend-turned-mutineer, leader of the mercenary “Wagner Group” so active in Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Reporting says he died in an accidental air crash… but bad actors walk abroad.

Questions surrounding the event recall another crash 60 years ago. In July 1943, Poland’s Prime Minister in exile, Wladyslaw Sikorski, and seven others left Gibraltar after reviewing troops and promptly crashed, killing all but the pilot.

At the time, Poland’s relationship with the Soviet Union was strained, even as Poland fought Nazi Germany. Sikorski was a man of strong influence and views, a promising leader.

Oddly, the Soviets had a plane parked on the Gibraltar airstrip that day, accompanied by a high-ranking Soviet leader and operatives, including a British double agent (discovered later).

That crash, which ended the life and influence of a rising Polish leader, remains a matter of considerable conjecture since it eliminated an historical figure who would have played a major role in WWII and the follow-on Cold War, outlines of which were already emerging.

Similarly, while public reports had Putin and Prigozhin at an uneasy peace, one is hard-pressed to believe that. Putin, notoriously thin-skinned, suffered a blow to his prestige with Prigozhin’s “march on Moscow.” While aborted, it ended any idea of unity, let alone inevitable victory.

All this must have sat poorly with Putin. Having made an adversary of Prigozhin, who was vocal, ruthless, and knew Putin’s weaknesses, must have seemed to Putin like opening another front.

Questions surrounding the crash, while partially answered, are not fully so. Caught on film, we know a plane did crash; it fell like a brick after what sounded like midair explosions.

We know the plane was a private Embraer, type seldom to crash, tail numbers Prigozhin’s plane.

What else? We know Prigozhin was listed on the manifest, if accurate. We know ten were aboard, and eight bodies were recovered, if that data is accurate.

We know Prigozhin must have known Putin was unforgiving, so was constantly on guard. We know, from Western sources, that no missile hit the plane, so whatever happened was internal.

We also have what lawyers call demeanor evidence. Despite no identification of Prigozhin’s body, Russian investigators were instantly on the scene, Putin offering a glowing public memoriam.

So, did Prigozhin die in the crash? Was he on that plane? Did he cross Putin and pay with his life? Did Putin take a pound of flesh, as they say, for Prigozhin’s public mutiny?

Was Prigozhin’s continued presence, hard-to-suppress voice, potential for future military challenges, and reservoir of embarrassing knowledge about Putin too much?

We know 10 Putin critics died violent deaths – and he jailed his leading political opponent.

But – as in the plane crash that occurred 60 years ago, removing the Polish Prime Minister from the scene – there is a lot that remains unknown and may never be known.

In that case, while the Soviets were suspected of sabotage, nothing was proved. Reports surfaced later that some on the manifest, including the Prime Minister’s daughter, were later seen alive.

Could Prigozhin have staged his own death to escape being further hunted by Putin? Certainly, Poland’s wartime Prime Minister did not do that. Could Prigozhin and Putin have reached some clandestine accord that would make him officially dead yet let him live? Not likely.

In Putin’s world, where war is justified by ancient lines, rites, and titles, pursued with resolve, as recruitment, retention, and battlefield victories falter, and China becomes his lifeline; where losing a non-existential war is sold at home as winning another “Great War,” who can say?

What we do know is that this is another odd turn, if not unpredictable, still solemn, sobering – another indication that Russia’s power structure is unstable, that Putin may feel increasingly cornered, insecure, and determined to deter challengers and settle scores.

This death – even without further facts – will send a shiver through those who oppose Putin within his military, his intelligence structure, and, more broadly, in Russian politics.

Hard to say is whether this event will do more than erode – if not erase – the Wagner Group’s influence in the war or have any influence on average Russians, still 80 percent behind Putin.

Still, like the global shiver created by the Polish Prime Minister’s suspicious death 60 years ago, this death reminds us we live in a world of unremitting intrigue, not unlike WWII and the Cold War, where we often know less than we think, need to be vigilant, and bad actors walk abroad.

Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.

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PaulE
PaulE
1 year ago

RBC,
This one was actually unintentionally funny. Of course, Putin killed yet another one of his adversaries. It was only a matter of time until this was going to happen to Prigozhin. Putin just changed things up a bit differently than his usual form of either poisoning people by polonium or having his enemies tossed out of high-rise windows in apparent “suicide”. From so-called reports that the jet was seen nosediving into the ground with one wing blown off, Putin likely used an altitude triggered bomb inserted into one of the plane’s wing fuel tanks since no one reported seeing a missile trail beforehand. What do you think?

As for control of the Wagner Group, this probably sent a very strong and direct message to the group’s senior commanders that Putin expects unconditional support and loyalty or else. Putin will probably assign one of his somewhat trusted oligarchs to oversee and manage the Wagner Group on Putin’s behalf.

Putin and Xi both share an affinity for removing those they feel have either outlived their usefulness or can no longer be trusted. Putin has his style and XI has his. Both brutal and quick. Xi simply chooses the somewhat less in your face approach by disappearing individuals never to be seen again. The end result is the same.

Veteran
Veteran
1 year ago

Is there an “Amen!” In church? Is water wet? Putin is KGB, the leopard doesn’t change its spots. That’s why the acronyms KGB/FSB are interchangeable with the words “Russian Mafia”. Much like we are currently witnessing Obama’s “fundamental transformation” of our own government into that same system of crooks, and thieves. Communism/National Socialism is nothing but total crime, when the criminals run it all.

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
1 year ago

Putin doesn’t waste pretense of dog & pony indictments to get rid of political opponents like they do here…

Honey
Honey
1 year ago

We know he was on the plane because his DNA was found among human remains. So I’m guessing the question is moot.
Is this going to happen here as well?

anna hubert
anna hubert
1 year ago

Putin does not have a monopoly on getting rid of obstacle standing in his way Nothing new or shocking We have our own Putin

Donna
Donna
1 year ago

Thank you Mr. Charles for another informative article.

ppuck64
ppuck64
1 year ago

Of course Pootin had Prigozhin killed. It was fated the moment Prigozhin stood up to him. Pootin is an ex-KGB murderer, and doesn’t tolerate opposition.

Vietvet 6769
Vietvet 6769
1 year ago

Yep, as true history goes, Putin had something to do with this story!

SusanW
SusanW
1 year ago

No surprises! Putin is very predictable. Prigozhin simply got sloppy. Power hungry dictators know no mercy. That’s why more Americans should curl up on a cloudy, rainy day to become more familiar with global history.

Jeri
Jeri
1 year ago

How is it the Russians are able to sort through the remains of 10+ bodies of a fiery crash and confirm DNA in less than a week? I read that it could take years in Maui, still working 9/11 and endless criminal cases sitting on DNA cases in this country are in limbo. How is that? Is America that behind in technology or are the Russians full of shat?

Ben Y.
Ben Y.
1 year ago

Robert Charles asserts that Putin is “notoriously thin-skinned.” Such a comment tells me that Charles does not understand the real Putin. I don’t know for sure but perhaps Charles is just another Russo-phobe who has imbibed the decades-long anti-Putin propaganda. Doing so precludes one from understanding Russia today, Putin’s disappointment with Soviet Communism, the real causes of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Putin’s uncomfortable and reluctant pivot toward China.

Andrew P
Andrew P
1 year ago

I’m sure there are lots of people who wanted Prigozhin dead, Putin among them. I assume Putin had the hit done, but we will never know for sure.

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