AMAC Exclusive – By Andrew Camman
Last week, Donald Trump took the lead – albeit by less than one percentage point – over Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics polling average of a hypothetical rematch between the two next year. While Trump also led in the average for brief periods this spring, this shift feels more significant because of what seems to be driving it.
Trump’s recent surge coincides with other noteworthy developments, including what appears to be a full-court press in the mainstream media to will Joe Biden out of the race. Europe is also seemingly preparing for a second Trump administration.
It is true that polling is only ever part of the story. Trump only led RCP’s polling average for a period of three days in 2016, and failed to get closer than 4.3 percent to Biden at any-point during the 2020-cycle. But part of the significance of what is happening now is not that the polls are close or that Donald Trump is ahead. Rather, it’s that Trump is polling better than he did in 2020, and Joe Biden is doing substantially worse.
Admittedly, Joe Biden’s polling numbers have never been particularly strong, and they have been downright poor ever since the bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021.
But the realization that seems to be dawning on both sides of the political aisle is that this is likely as good as it is going to get for Joe Biden and as bad as it is likely to get for Donald Trump. This, more than anything else, is what is shifting perceptions of the election.
Until recently, most political observers and virtually all Democrat strategists were operating under the assumption that dismal polling and other data disguised underlying “fundamentals” more favorable for Joe Biden.
Whether those factors were belief in an abstract power of incumbency or a confidence the economy would improve, the belief persisted that Biden’s numbers were more likely to rise going forward and Donald Trump’s were more likely to fall. Eventually, the results of Biden’s “Inflation Reduction Act,” an economic recovery, and his supposed foreign policy successes would filter down. Conversely, Donald Trump’s legal woes would filter up, reducing his support.
The 2022 midterms, driven to some extent by the impact of the Dobbs decision, disguised how neither of these assumptions ever played out. Democrats outperformed expectations by weaponizing the abortion issue in states where control of the state government, and hence abortion policy, was at stake.
Conversely, they performed as poorly in some of the most pro-choice and anti-Trump states in the country such as California and New York as they did in the Deep South and Mountain West. The states with competitive Senate and gubernatorial races – Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – happened to be states where Republicans were on the verge of taking control of both the governorship and legislature, which could determine the legality of abortion.
The Biden team suddenly seems to have realized this. Politico recently reported on their panic that Trump might be able to neutralize planned attacks on abortion by opposing the prospect of a national six-week ban, inadvertently revealing that their main strategy for 2024 was to run on the prospect he would sign one. At the same time, they revealed they had little else of substance to campaign on.
The Biden campaign’s new panic reveals something that is now becoming evident to wiser observers whether at home or abroad. Rather than marking a turning-point or the start of a Democrat recovery, the 2022 midterms have proven something of a false start for the Biden administration. The loss of the U.S. House denied the administration any sort of legislative agenda, and virtually every major domestic and foreign policy issue is at best in a stalemate, with a very real chance of deterioration.
The Ukraine conflict has slowed to a crawl, leaving Biden vulnerable to charges from all sides: that he failed to support Ukraine enough early when it might have proved decisive; that he missed a chance to negotiate a settlement from a position of strength; and that he is spending too much for no clear objective. Worse, it is unclear what options the administration has to control the situation.
If Ukraine presents a risk, the border presents a disaster. The migrant crisis is no longer an issue for red state politicians. It is bankrupting blue state cities. Biden is estranged from the Democrat mayor of New York, and worse, he is being pulled in two different directions. If he accedes to demands to crack down on illegal migration, he will alienate the left and admit his policies caused the disaster. If he sides with the left, for instance by issuing temporary work permits without the approval of Congress, not only are the courts likely to block the move, but he will be blamed for encouraging a further flow of migrants (not least because that will be the consequence of such a policy).
The migrant crisis feeds into a wider deterioration in quality of life for millions of Americans. Crime, inflation, the collapse of vital infrastructure – none of these issues alone can explain Biden’s nightmare polls. But the fact is Americans feel their lives are getting progressively worse, and the Biden administration has no plans to reverse these trends. In many cases, its policies are seen as making them worse.
The greatest problem, and the reason for the increased pessimism among Democrats, is that unlike with the economy and inflation, there is no reason to believe any of these issues will get better before November 2024. If the migrant crisis, rising crime rates, and the high cost of living are hurting Joe Biden today, they will all be much worse by Election Day 2024.
Then there is Biden’s age – another thing that is impossible to stop. The electorate’s concerns will only become greater as Biden’s capacities deteriorate, and that deterioration becomes even more evident. If Joe Biden isn’t leading in September 2023 due to these issues, how does he expect to be stronger in November 2024?
If expectations that Joe Biden would gain strength over time proved unfounded, so too has the conviction that Donald Trump would become weaker. Certainly, Donald Trump’s favorability numbers are poor. However, they have not become appreciably worse. While Democrats likely assumed there was a chance the indictments would aid Trump among Republican primary voters, they did not expect the same result with the general electorate.
The evidence is not only that the indictments have failed to hurt Trump’s standing. If anything, they have helped it slightly.
In short, Team Biden’s biggest problem isn’t that 2024 polls are close more than one year out from the election. Their biggest problem is that the factors harming Biden are both beyond his control and are only likely to get worse. At the same time, if the indictments have not hurt Donald Trump, or have not hurt him enough to give Biden a lead today, what precisely is supposed to do so?
The Biden administration is running out of gas. The campaign is running out of ammunition. The polls indicate they will need a lot more if they want to take down Donald Trump. That is why Democrats and their allies are panicking.
Andrew Camman is the pseudonym of a regular writer on current affairs who has taught history at the University level for eight years. He has worked on Capitol Hill and is familiar with the historical development of the American and British political systems.
Polling numbers have not been correct since before the Carter administration. All I know is that if my hair was on fire and I needed to vote Democrat to put the fire out, I would just have to live without hair…no way in hell would I or could I ever vote Democrat.
Stumblebumb Biden polling numbers reflect his disastrous handling of everything that effects the American People! Higher gasoline prices, higher food prices, higher housing prices and especially his open borders fiasco! It feels like we’re being invaded and our so-called President isn’t just ignoring it, he’s ALLOWING it to happen! America has NEVER had a worse Jackass running the country! And it appears that this clown just doesn’t care about the American Citizens at all! And HE LIES Everytime He Opens His Mouth to Speak and Everybody KNOWS it! If He is Surprised by his polling numbers it just shows how STUPID He Really Is!
I can’t believe the polls are that close. JB is unfit for command of anything. He has proven his incompetency with Afghanistan, our border, the economy and foreign policy, national debt, and on and on. How can the polls be close? Who votes for JB anyway? He belongs in prison along with Clapper & Brennan, Garland, Mayorkas and others of his party who have sold out America. We need to truly watch the voting this time. I do not believe JB got the most votes of any President last election nor did he beat President Trump, do you? I believe that election was a voting scam. How can you think different? Our great country is circling the drain now. If JB wins the next election, America as we know it and I mean Red, White & Blue is finished. The selling out of our country by the so-called elected officials is the real Insurrection,
Biden is not in charge in any way. Many of the “leftovers” from the years in the O’Bama stint are still in DC and I believe are pulling the strings (along with Soros and his billions). Everything this administration is doing is purposeful and intended to ruin our capitalistic, democratic nation, not because Biden is too old or to stupid to do his job. The only way we are going to get back to being “normal” is to elect a person who loves the U.S. and its people and will take a strong stance to get rid of as many of the members of the IRS, FBI and DOJ who are only on the side of the current regime. Of course to do that, we have to find a way to stop the Democratic party from buying votes which is what they do.
America is in terrible need of God’s intervention. Corporately and individually. Pray Pray Pray there’s no other way, satan has gone too far.
Democrats equal failure, corruption, mediocrity, deceit, and incompetence. Unless you are a Communist, a pervert, a freeloader, or a drug addict, why would you vote Democratic?
The polls are saying if you vote for Dictator Beijing biden you are voting for Socialism/Communism, Corruption, LOSER WOKE, and America LAST.
That pretty much raps it up.
Don’t forget that the Fake News has kept Dictator Beijing biden’s approval rating the same since in office and has NEVER told the TRUTH on his REAL approval rating which is barely at maximum 25%.
We say BIDEN did this, said that- but Biden is a puppet.
Conservative republicans, and President Trump in particular, need to be ready for when the democrats turn back to the Obamas. They love to return to their perceived past successes. Watch for an LBJ style exit from President Biden in early 2024. This will open the door for a democrat change. Possibly Michelle Obama. Be watchful and ready. I am not convinced the RNC will be ready, but I want to believe the Trump campaign will.
The fact an article is EVER written that doesn’t include the word “coup” in front of biden administation is just barely worth reading. The fact ANY respect is ever given to that lying clown, always was and always will be and now it is worse with his dementia, just flabbergasts me. I have never liked anything about that lying criminal dementia patient and never will. We are the laughing stock of the world at this point in time.
But does any of this matter…as a 73 yo white American male…I can’t help but believe that the BIG FIX is permanently in place. Elections for president and key senatorial seats no longer are contests…the winners are selected.
I seriously doubt that Biden will be running in 24. The left knows that the more Biden talks the more the public can see his senility is getting worse; and the closer we get to the election the chance of replacing him gets shorter. The convention? Maybe we see it happen there but who, they certainly don’t want Kamala, it could be Gavin Newsome as he is a golden boy for the left and the green agenda. Either way Biden will not likely be the candidate come Nov 2024.
The polls don’t mean jack. Until 2020 is fixed the elections will be fraudulent. If they got away with 2020 (and others) they will feel unstoppable and most likely will be.
The DC DNC Estd is Failing& a Failure since 1965
If the citizens especially middle-class Americans can’t see how everything in our country has gotten worse than we deserve what we are getting. 81million supposed voters and msm put us here. it’s up to us to change it! IMO
Most recently Biden praised the success of the Black Caucus while talking to a group of Hispanics. That was after he forgot to shake the hand of Brazil’s president before walking off stage. OK, it was a success in that he could find his way off stage, but it was another visual reminder of incompetence, senility or whatever unflattering thing about reality that can’t be uttered. Biden’s gaffs aren’t new, but they are becoming an occurrence almost every time his handlers allow him a brief public appearance. At some point, Democratic investors, excuse me, donors will wake up, smell the reek of pending disaster, realize that VP Giggles Harris is not a ticket to success and recognize they need a candidate who can walk, talk and restructure the United States into a leftest society all at the same time.
Real Clear Politics poll is a fraud, as unreal as the 2020 election results.
1% lead by Trump? Flawed, non-relevant, and a total waste of time.
Can we believe the polls? In 2022 they forecasted a red wave which did not materialize. As long as 39% still will vote for ole Joe I don’t believe any of the polls. Who are these pollsters? Let’s see who has influence on them. Is Soros or Gates or any of the other elites involved. Like the WEF elites. I am a skeptic as long as the left sees nothing wrong with the millions that come across the border illegally. Let them walk into the country without ID. Ole Joe said come on in but had no plan where to house them. And all left dems are okay with that? No country in the world allows this. They respect their borders. Not everyone that is coming in qualifies as an asylum seeker. Ole Joe has done everything to create this mass of people coming into our country. As much as the population of some of our states. Where are we going to house them, feed them, educate them and provide health care. We can’t do that now with the citizens we have now. Maybe he is going to put in one of the 51st or 52nd state he always talks about. I wish he would tell us where they are. Oh I know in Texas.
in all fairness how could anyone with a lick of common sense vote for a democrat, no matter who it is, let alone this clueless bag of bones buffoon who is supposedly running this country now.
As far as age, they are both TOO OLD. As far as ability there is no contest. To me Trump was a great president! but, But, BUT there still is the “Democrat, No Matter What” voters who just might get “Nowhere Joe” back in. Example: How did he win in 2020? On top of all that we still have Republican vs Democrat to vote for which equals 0 for America
How much more time do we really have to be free? 2028 may be too late! Anyone sane understands that If things continue the same way for four more years, we may never vote again. Biden is not running this country and is a puppet to the puppeteers. I don’t believe the polls are correct as I think Trump is leading by a large margin. He draws crowds every where he goes while poor Biden continues to struggle for words and to keep his balance while people show him their middle finger. Shame on Jill for putting him through this humiliation. In 2024 vote out the corruption and vote in the right, save our children, our FREEDOM and bring God back in to this country.
Question? Are these polls set up to compensate for Democrat/Socialist/Communist party efforts to manipulate another election to their favor or are they set up per a level field IE: Fair and honest elections? If the polls are figured on fair and honest elections WHERE are they finding enough drugged people to vote for Commie Joe & Commie Harris? OH I forgot their importing them by plane and across the north and south borders! KINDA LOOKS LIKE TREASON to me. But I’m just a voice in the wilderness.
No sane leadership would do what this regime is doing to the nation. These lunatics are so ideologically hidebound that even when their policies are visibly taking the nation over a cliff and the people are crying for mercy, they will not change course. Madness pure and simple.
Choices have consequences. One cannot do, say and act the way this cabal acts and expect people to support what you say and do and how you act.
Really, try to address the real problem Biden problem is dementia and how it effects the nation.G
As far as I can tell, Biden has done NOTHING to protect American citizens who are not “the elite”, and the damage he has done will take a very long time to repair. (He has done a pretty good job of enriching his family, however.)
I am praying that our country will survive, but I believe a massive turning back to God will be absolutely essential. We have come to assume that prosperity and ease are going to continue, and we can always become “great again” if we just get better politicians. On the contrary we need to get down on our knees and repent of how we excluded God from our culture and worshipped gods of materialism, pleasure, and greed. We have murdered millions of unborn human beings!! If God has mercy on us, perhaps He will grant that we retain our freedoms and the blessing of good governance.
Vote the puppeteers out! Biden is not in his right mind and being controlled by previous people who are only concerned about keeping their billions. If we fail in this election, we may not have a country to call ours and may never be free to vote again. If the elites don’t care about the most vulnerable human beings in the womb, about our children’s bodies being mutilated, about our American seniors who are the backbone of this country, who are you and I? Think about it? How much time do we really have left of our freedom? Vote out corruption and invite God back in.
Let’s take a real world poll from real Americans. Let’s ask Americans if they believe that they are better off today than when Trump was in office. The polls would not be close at all for JB and the corrupt Democrats.
Never mind what polls say. Every time I drive past the local gas station prices go up; it’s currently $4.99/gal. so you guess what I’m saying about Joe Biden.
The even polling is a puzzle for Trump and Biden. Biden hasn’t done anything that democrats can brag about. 70% of the population living paycheck to paycheck. Polling seems to be so skewed I don’t believe it .
What polls suggest and what Dominion produces are two different things There is also the possibility of a rabbit being pulled out of the same hat as Obama was pulled out of
There is one candidate that stands far and above the rest.
Nikki Haley
She has the right experience and leadership qualities to make an outstanding POTUS. No other candidate matches her common sense conservative approach. She is smart, strong, and energetic and is a true leader. She will also be incredibly formidable in a general election. She would not only sweep the swing states but challenge in a few of the blue states. I just contributed to her campaign and I urge others to support her too.
Everything the progressives have done has made our lives progressively worse.
If his winning the election depended on actual votes and real voters old Robert L Peters, aka @pedopere, wouldn’t stand a chance. Sadly, it depends on neither
The polls cannot be correct! Trump should be leading by 95% and Bidum must be less than 5%!.Bidumb has made our future bleak. It will take an incredible amount of work for President Trump to restore and Make America Great Again! If we are not in World War III before then!
Biden’s utter incompetence and poor judgement are finally coming home to roost! It’s about time! I hope our nation survives the remaining months of his tenure.
I don’t believe polls!! There is way too much unknown in them!! People don’t necessarily tell the truth, sometimes just to skew the poll!! How the questions are phrased is another variable!! But anyone who says that Biden is ahead in any poll should be written off as a fraud!!! I can’t believe that are still Democrat voters who are enamored with him!!! He is such a bumbling idiot, can’t speak, can’t walk and shouldn’t be allowed out in public much less speaking at important world functions!!! The world is laughing at us!!! And I am completely humiliated, embarrassed, ashamed!!!
As Mickey Haley so succinctly pointed out, “a vote for Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris”. There is no way Biden will be able to perform the duties of President 2-5 years from now.
You forgot to mention the Biden impeachment inquiry which will publicize Biden’s family raking in millions of dollars from foreign entities including the CCP. The more this story gets past the media firewall, the worse for Biden.
None of these polls are of any significance. There’s only one poll that counts, and that will be held over several weeks at the end of October and in early November, 2024. Totally Legit Joe Biden, or whomever the Dems put up, will receive something in the neighborhood of 81 million of those votes. But, because of the pesky Electoral College, that won’t be sufficient. The Dems will have to tally very large majorities in key precincts in Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Phoenix. You can be confident that they will do so.
Trump is a barbarian and none too bright but, as bad as he is, he’s vastly better than Biden or any of the other socialists who’ve taken over the Democratic Party.
The knives have come out for Biden, current Democratic Leadership at odds. Who is still supporting him? With walking into flags, snubbing foreign leaders (he forgot?), how much more embarrassment is his supporters willing to take?
Thank AMAC to help stay touch with what going on in the undercurrent of our nation!
The Biden team is worried for no reason. Everything he has initiated, and all of the economic indicators show that he has performed very well in the last 2 1/2 years.
Biden should promote a second inflation fighting act to bring the inflation rate down to the normal 2% range. He could call it the “Spend America Into Prosperity”, or “Investing Money For America’s Future”.
Really, the reason that Biden seems distracted at times is because he is multi tasking. When he gives a speech he is often distracted by the thoughts of other important issues. You know, “What is taking that ice cream truck so long to show up?”
What was the last democratic president that did anything good in office?
A) Biden
B) Obama
C) Clinton
D) Carter
E) Before that (none of the 4 above did a single thing good during their entire terms)
The Democratic Party = the party against nothing.
The fact that the sock puppet Biden is President e.g. Obamas third term exists tells educated Army veterans like me probably 2/3’s of Americans are getting what they want and continue to desire. Can DJ Trump win in a corrupt U.S. given the never ending anti Constitutional fraud committed by our government? Who knows…
Who knows how accurate these polls might be, but one thing we know is that many things are getting worse under Biden control (not leadership). Some people are waking up to this but I’m surprised how long it is taking for folks to realize how bad things have gotten in just two and a half years.
There hasn’t been a nonmanipulated poll in over 50 years from either side. I’ve distrusted them since I was a kid. Sadly I’m struggling with even believing in some states electoral system since the 2020 elections.To many WTH’s for me. Lets say the shoe is on the other foot this next vote and the Republicans take the win. Will Kamala Ding Dong approve and sign off on the vote like Pence did.
I don’t think so….