AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris
The most important U.S. Senate race in 2024 will very likely be the contest in Ohio between incumbent Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown and the eventual Republican nominee. In addition to the race likely going a long way toward determining overall control of the Senate, Democrats are desperate to regain some footing and momentum in the Buckeye State after a string of defeats in what was once a perennial battleground, while Republicans are looking to follow up on J.D. Vance’s success in 2022 and complete a GOP sweep of statewide offices.
Looking at next year’s Senate map, it’s bad news for Democrats almost everywhere. Of the 34 seats up for re-election, 20 are held by Democrats, 3 by Independents who caucus with Democrats, and just 11 by Republicans.
Nine of the GOP’s 11 seats are rated as “Safe R” by the Cook Political Report, while the other two are rated as “Likely R.” Democrats, meanwhile, have just 15 seats in the “Safe D” column, five in the “Lean D” column, and three in the “Toss Up” column.
Of the seven races rated “Lean D” or “Toss Up,” the three most intriguing for Republicans are the re-election bids of Jon Tester in Montana, Joe Manchin in West Virginia, and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. All three of those Democrats face re-election in states Trump won handily in 2016 and 2020, whereas Biden won the home states of the five other vulnerable Democrats. The GOP will need to flip at least two seats to win an outright 51-49 Senate majority.
It is difficult to envision a scenario where Democrats hold their own Senate majority without holding Brown’s seat. Particularly with the entry of popular Republican Governor Jim Justice into the West Virginia race and Manchin himself hinting that he may vacate his seat for a third-party presidential run, that state seems a likely Republican pickup. In Montana, Tester is currently seen as having a better chance of winning, but that will be for naught if Brown loses in Ohio.
Recent history suggests the three-term senator has a big challenge ahead of him to retain his seat. Although Republicans have largely held power in Columbus for decades, Democrats were competitive in the state in the early 2000s and 2010s, winning the governorship in 2006 and control of the Ohio House of Representatives in 2008. Obama also won the state twice in 2008 and 2012, further reinforcing Ohio’s status as a bellwether in presidential contests. (The state has voted for the winning candidate all but three times since 1896.)
And of course, Brown himself won election to the Senate in 2006, riding a wave of midterm backlash against President George W. Bush to become the first Democrat senator from Ohio since 1976. Brown was the beneficiary of favorable political timing again with his first re-election bid in Obama’s successful re-election year in 2012, and again in the 2018 midterm year.
Democrats are hopeful that Brown will be a bright spot once more for the party in 2024 and reverse a streak of disappointing cycles that seem to suggest Ohio is moving from light pink to ruby red. The DNC poured significant resources into Ohio in both 2016 and 2020, only to see Trump carry the state by more than eight points both times. Last year, Democrats believed Tim Ryan had a real shot at defeating Republican J.D. Vance for the retiring Rob Portman’s seat, only to see Vance win comfortably.
Voters also re-elected Republican Governor Mike DeWine by a wide margin and sent a GOP supermajority in both the House and Senate to Columbus. While the prophesized “red wave” failed to materialize nationally in 2022, last November was a catastrophic red tsunami for Ohio Democrats, leaving the party on life support heading into 2024.
Meanwhile, last year’s GOP performance gives Ohio Republicans confidence that Brown’s good fortune will run out next year and his far-left voting record will finally catch up with him. According to “Progressive Punch,” a website that tracks how liberal each member of Congress is, Brown has a voting record that is more out of line with the political leanings of his state than any other member of the Senate.
The Republican primary race in Ohio has already begun, with state senator Matt Dolan and Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno declaring their candidacy earlier this year. Former Ohio GOP Chair Jane Timken and former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel, both of whom ran in 2022, are also considered potential candidates, along with popular Congressman Warren Davidson and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
Regardless of who emerges as the Republican nominee, he or she is almost certain to embrace Trump’s America First brand of politics. Trump is widely credited for accelerating Ohio’s shift toward the GOP in 2016 and 2020, and his endorsement of J.D. Vance vaulted the author and venture capitalist to the top of primary polling last year.
Senator Vance has made an unusually early endorsement of Moreno, who has also earned praise from Trump. But with the primary still nearly a year away and the field far from set, the race is only just beginning to heat up.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio.
It’s far too early to make any accurate estimates of who will win what races anywhere in the country. Obviously, all races in the Senate are vital to the Republicans. As they are for the Democrats. If Republicans hope to re-take control of the Senate. However, even if we flip the Senate back to Republican control in 2024, that would put Mitch McConnell back in the driver’s seat and he is far from anything that could be described as a conservative.
His voting record over the past 2 years, with his merry band of fellow RINOs in tow, helped the Democrats and Joe Biden pass some of the most expensive and disastrous legislation hurting our country. Not to manage stoking inflation to the worse levels in over 40 years. So anyone we elect to the Senate has to be for voting against Mitch McConnel for majority leader should the Republicans re-take the Senate. That will obviously be a tough road to hoe, because in the last mid-terms, McConnell actively withheld campaign funding from a number of Republican candidates, who he knew wouldn’t support him as majority leader. In one instance, actually funding a Democrat candidate to ensure a Republican loss. All in all, I expect 2024 elections to be anything but dull.
SHEROD BROWN IS NOTHING BUT A PHONEY DEMORAT
Yes, way too early. But what else do the pundits have to talk about? There are many things happening, but they think people are interested in politics. Most people I know are not.
We need a list of the suspected rinos.
Just watch, Senator McConnell will see to it that the Republicans don’t take control of the Senate, he will back some Liberal, RINO puke, like Murkowski, or Collins or Romney and we will once again play Second Fiddle.
Don’t let McConnell run show he will pick a RINO.
Save America — Pick solid Conservatives Republicans, make American and the Republicans winners again!
Brown is a great example of the careless nature of American voters. When in ohio he speaks as a moderate. For instance, he softpedals his anti second amendment record. Far too many people who vote for him are too lazy to learn the reality behind his moderate front. Lets hope that that changes and Brown, along with Tester and Manchin are sent out to pasture.
Defies logic how creepy crappy gravelly voice, puke anti-Republic Commie Demoncrat Brown retained his seat this long. But, hey, RINO Mike DeWhine is still here, too. Might have something to do with clueless idiots like my neighbor, an old white man (who should know better!) useful idiot with a BLM sign in his yard. SMH. FBJ, and the rest of the greedy evil Republic-destroying expletives.
How could any senator not see national security as the highest priority?
Here we go again, “Looking at next year’s Senate map, it’s bad news for Democrats almost everywhere.” Hmmm….Very reminiscent of the so often promised “Red Wave” prior to the 2020 midterms. To paraphrase a line from Thomas The Tank Engine “We’ve heard THAT one before.”