Larry Hogan Gives GOP Huge Senate Opportunity in Deep Blue Maryland

Former Maryland Republican Governor Larry Hogan has never been viewed as a great champion of traditional conservative values or a hero to the Republican Party base. But if he can win Maryland’s U.S. Senate race this November, Hogan might nonetheless hand the GOP one of its most significant and consequential victories in decades.

While Hogan has often received criticism for his soft stance on issues like gun control and abortion, he is nonetheless a Republican who won back-to-back gubernatorial elections in deep-blue Maryland and created a reputation for himself as a very popular governor. A moderate Republican representing Maryland in the Senate would do more for conservatives than a far-left Democrat ever would.

At the very least, Hogan could be for Republicans what Senators Joe Manchin (WV), Jon Tester (MT), and Sherrod Brown (OH) are for Democrats. The liberal party owes its current 51-49 Senate majority to these three members from red states.

While Manchin, Tester, and Brown don’t have nearly as far-left a voting record as figures like Bernie Sanders or Chuck Schumer, they all nonetheless voted with Democrats to pass every Biden administration policy. When Democrats needed to push through their enormous spending packages or a controversial nomination, these three ensured their party carried the day when it mattered most.

Take the Supreme Court, for example. Manchin, Tester, and Brown all voted to confirm far-left Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown-Jackson. If it were up to the voters in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, Brown-Jackson would almost surely not be on the Court.

The fact that Hogan won at all in Maryland with a Republican label is itself a minor miracle. Hillary Clinton won the state by 27 points in 2016, while Joe Biden won there by 33 points in 2020. Yet Hogan carried the state in his gubernatorial elections by almost 4 percent in 2014 and 12 percent in 2018. When he left office in 2023, he had a 77 percent approval rating.

The keys to Hogan’s victories were winning Baltimore’s suburbs and minimizing Democrats’ margins in the Washington, D.C. suburbs.

While Democrats were able to run up their advantage in Baltimore proper, Hogan managed to win Baltimore County, comprising the suburbs outside of Baltimore, in both of his races. In 2014, he lost the city by a margin of 31,000 to 106,000 votes, but won Baltimore County 156,000 to 103,000. In 2018, he lost the city 58,000 to 123,000, but won the County 198,000 to 123,000. Hogan also managed to win Howard County and Anne Arundel County, which are situated between Baltimore and Washington.

By comparison, former President Donald Trump lost Baltimore County by nearly 69,000 votes in 2016 and by more than 112,000 votes in 2020. While Hogan is hardly the conservative Trump is, he has nonetheless proven he has what it takes to win over left-leaning voters while still advancing some conservative priorities.

Maryland’s Senate primary contests are scheduled for May 14. Hogan holds a commanding lead for the Republican nomination, while current polling shows the likely Democrat nominee will be either Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks or Congressman David Trone, with Trone leading in current polling.

The latest general election polling out on April 2 has Hogan beating both Alsobrooks and Trone – but just barely. A Goucher College survey has Hogan up 44 percent to 40 percent over Alsobrooks, with 11 percent undecided, and up 43 percent to 42 percent on Trone, with 10 percent undecided. Both results are within the poll’s margin of error.

The fact that Hogan is competitive at all in the race is a sign that his popularity as governor has carried over into the Senate contest – a promising development for Republicans’ hopes of retaking the Senate. But Democrats will likely pour immense financial resources into the state, as they know they cannot afford to lose a deep-blue seat in a cycle where they already have so many other vulnerable incumbents in red and purple states.

The policy differences between Hogan and his Democrat opponents are stark. Both leading Democrat candidates support providing illegal aliens with amnesty. In 2020, Alsobrooks chose to shift money away from local law enforcement, while Trone wanted law enforcement officers to be trained on “implicit bias” and “non-lethal interventions.” Both would certainly be far-left voices in the Senate.

Meanwhile, Hogan has, to his credit, stood with Republicans on several issues of importance to conservatives. In 2021, he vetoed legislation that would turn Maryland into a sanctuary state for illegal aliens by forcing counties to end their contracts with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). (Democrats in the state legislature did, however, override his veto.)

That same year, Hogan pushed a $150 million initiative to fund police in the state. “Trying to reduce crime by defunding police is dangerous, radical, far-left lunacy. Thinking that you can improve law enforcement by defunding the police is like saying you want to improve education by defunding the schools,” he said.

In a time when Democrats are becoming increasingly anti-Israel, Hogan has also affirmed his support for the Jewish State, calling himself a “pro-Israel champion.”

While Larry Hogan may be no Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Ron Johnson, or Rand Paul, he would represent the interests of conservatives more than any Democrat who could plausibly win in Maryland. This is a seat that Republicans saw no chance of winning until Hogan entered the race, and as such, conservatives should welcome his candidacy and potential ascension to the Senate.

Alan Jamison is the pen name of a political writer with extensive experience writing for several notable politicians and news outlets.