Early Voting – Ten Data Points

Early voting, made popular in 2020, may be decisive in 2024. Why? Many who say they will vote do not vote, many never intend to, and those voting early – often with friends – tip the balance. Ten questions – and answers – about “early voting” are worth knowing.

First, what percentage of voters – in either party – consistently vote? Surprisingly few. A third. Only 37 percent voted in 2018, 2020 and 2022 (Pew Research).

What does that mean? It means consistency is abnormal. Many vote “when the spirit moves them,” when it is convenient when urged by a neighbor – or taken by a neighbor. Otherwise, they do not.

Added data. Fully 30 percent of those of voting age did not vote in any of those three elections, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Without cycle analysis, if a modest number of those who did not vote had voted, the last dozen cycles could easily have been different. Think about that, state and federal.

Second, while 76 percent of American voters – in both major parties – favor “early voting,” at least two weeks prior to election day, Democrats more often vote early.  Meaning? When weather, convenience, family, or work issues interfere with election day voting, Democrats profit.

Third, in an era when only 65 percent of Democrats, versus 95 percent of Republicans, favor mandatory proof of citizenship on election day – and some politicians, like Mr. Walz of Minnesota, gave non-citizens driver’s licenses for use at the polls, election day is fraught.  The balance tips to those who think ahead, vote early, insist on voting early, and then get others to.

Fourth, almost twice the number of Democrats (76 percent) as Republicans (39 percent) want walk-in registration on election day – not to mention hard-to-monitor practices like ballot harvesting and drop boxes. Meaning? Guaranteed votes, ones cast early, are now vitally important.

Fifth,  a majority of Republicans favor “banning groups from collecting completed ballots from a large number of voters,” while a majority of Democrats favor the reverse. What does that mean?  The chances in some states for fraud are high; early voting helps combat that.

Sixth, early voting helps compensate for weak oversight on election day, when – for example – 60 percent of Republicans favor removing those who have not recently voted or cannot confirm registration from rolls, while Democrats shrug at such lapses (only 27 percent care).

Seventh, Democrats lead the way in early voting, with a stunning surge between 2018 and 2022. As the New York Times reported, America saw a 70 percent turnout increase for in-person “early voting” in 2022, up everywhere, numbers through the roof. If Republicans aim to win, they will need to convince the faithful to “vote early,” and to bring others to the polls, as Democrats do.

Eighth, the number “voting early” continues to climb, with 41 percent voting early in 2022, compared to 34 percent in 2018. Notably, 40 percent voted early in 2016, which suggests that Republicans – who overwhelmingly won in 2016 – CAN vote early when motivated.

Ninth, those in Western US states vote earlier than in the East, so East Coast Republicans should start to vote early, ensure their votes are counted, and get others to the polls early if they hope to win.

Tenth, and finally, the time is now upon us. When all is said and done, early voting is critical, as it tends to tip the balance in modern politics. Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Virginia start “early voting” in September, and more than 40 states begin in October.

In the old days, which were not long ago, people went to the polls on election day. That was fine. In the old days, not to put too fine a point on it, Americans were patriotic, honest, believed in the Bill of Rights, and none were Marxist. Today, Truman and JFK would be Republican – and would vote early. If it ever mattered, it matters this year. Voting early, in-person or other, may make all the difference this year.

ALL STATES’ EARLY VOTING DATES

Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.