Can Brown Close the Gap in Nevada?

Nevada Republican Senate nominee Sam Brown has been running significantly behind Democrat incumbent Jackie Rosen for most of this year. But recent polls have shown Brown closing the gap, creating a real possibility that he could come within striking distance by Election Day.

As recently as September 15, Rosen held a 10-point lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average, 49.7 percent to 39.7 percent. That advantage has now nearly been cut in half, with Rosen leading 48.8 percent to Brown’s 43.3 percent. With just over two weeks to go until Election Day, the most important question may be whether Brown has enough time for that momentum to continue.

Brown undoubtedly had an uphill challenge from the beginning, as Republicans haven’t won a U.S. Senate race in the Silver State since 2012, when Dean Heller eked out a one-point win over Shelley Berkley. Republicans have also struggled in presidential contests, winning the state just twice since 1988.

But recent trends have indicated that the state is becoming more competitive for the GOP, most notably Republican Joe Lombardo’s victory over incumbent Democrat Governor Steve Sisolak in 2022. “Sam Brown is beginning to surge after being badly outspent over the summer,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Spokeswoman Maggie Abboud said in a statement to AMAC Newsline. “Nevada remains one of our top pickup opportunities.”

On paper, Brown seemed to be a strong challenger to Rosen, with a compelling personal story of service and sacrifice. After graduating from West Point, Brown commissioned as an Infantry Officer and was deployed to Afghanistan. As his campaign website describes, shortly into his deployment Brown led a platoon of soldiers into an engagement where “a roadside bomb detonated under the fuel tank of his vehicle, leaving him drenched in diesel and covered in flames. By the grace of God, Sam’s gunner was able to extinguish the flames before they took his life.”

Brown sustained severe burns across 30 percent of his body, forcing his retirement from the military and several years of intensive, painful physical therapy. He subsequently earned his MBA and launched a small business that provides emergency pharmaceutical support to veterans.

Brown’s first foray into politics came in 2014 when he ran in the Republican primary for the 10th District in the Texas House of Representatives, coming in third place. Seven years later he launched his first bid for U.S. Senate in Nevada, hoping to unseat Democrat Catherine Cortez-Masto. But Brown would ultimately come up short to Adam Laxalt in the Republican primary, who then went on to lose to Cortez-Masto by less than 8,000 votes.

This year Brown easily won the Republican nomination, securing 60 percent of the vote in the primary following an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.

While the corporate media would suggest otherwise, Brown’s association with Trump is likely his greatest asset in the race, as Trump has run neck-and-neck with Harris in recent polling. The former president currently leads by half a percentage point in the latest RealClearPolitics average. After Biden won Nevada by 2.4 percent in 2020 – a margin of less than 34,000 votes – Trump is now well-positioned to become the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since 2004.

Brown has smartly aligned himself with Trump on policy, with The Washington Post reporting recently that his “four-point policy platform is taken directly from Trump’s plans, including a ‘no taxes on tips’ proposal and plans to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits — issues that resonate with Nevada’s large service-industry workforce and growing retiree population.”

But Rosen has been boosted by a significant fundraising advantage, raising more than $12 million from July through September, compared to just $3.5 million for Brown. In total Rosen has spent nearly $17 million, while Brown has spent less than $8 million. Rosen also has a cash on hand advantage of $4.8 million compared to $3.8 million for Brown.

Rosen has benefited greatly from the political machine built by the late Harry Reid, who hand-picked Rosen to replace him in 2018. Brown, meanwhile, has not enjoyed much support from the national Republican apparatus.

With Democrats facing a nightmare map elsewhere in the battle for the Senate, they desperately need to hold on to Rosen’s seat and are expected to continue to spend big in the final weeks of the race. Brown’s campaign will have to strategically deploy their more limited resources where they are most effective to overcome Rosen’s money advantage.

Some outside groups have provided a possible blueprint for Brown’s campaign, one of which is the Frontiers of Freedom Action PAC. A recent two-minute ad from the PAC, filmed in both English and Spanish, slams Rosen for her “anti-Catholic bigotry,” something which could be a major issue for Nevada’s large Hispanic Catholic population.

Rosen is also vulnerable on the economy and the border crisis, the latter issue being of particular concern in Nevada. Rosen supported all of the Biden-Harris administration’s spending that has led to 20 percent cumulative inflation, and she is a member of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, which is responsible for overseeing border security operations.

Brown undoubtedly faces an uphill climb, but he is by no means out of the race. Americans should keep their eye on this battleground as campaign season reaches its crescendo.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.