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The “Experts” Are Wrong Again on Trump’s Tariff Agenda

Posted on Friday, November 29, 2024
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by Aaron Flanigan
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72 Comments
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From the moment it became clear Donald Trump would become the 47th President of the United States, perhaps no policy issue has elicited as much handwringing, panic, and doomsday predictions from the “expert” class as Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda. Despite the mounting hysteria, these predictions are not only factually misguided, but also willfully overlook America’s rich history of successful tariffs and protectionist trade policies.

Without interruption, the corporate media, the Democrat Party establishment, and Old Guard Republicans have issued a series of apocalyptic forecasts that could befall the American people if Trump’s tariff agenda is successfully implemented—from increased prices on consumers to soaring grocery and drug costs and outright “chaos” and “economic nightmare.”

Trump’s pro-tariff campaign platform in 2016 elicited similar predictions from many purported economic experts and free trade absolutists who feared a departure from what was then conventional Republican trade policy. But not only did Trump’s trade platform help unleash an economic boom, it also signaled a return to the beginnings of the American conservative movement rather than a departure from it.

From 1790 to 1914, tariffs made up the main source of federal revenue and served as an indispensable component of American foreign policy. In fact, the first major piece of legislation passed in the United States after the ratification of the Constitution was the Tariff Act of 1789, which was enacted in large part to protect the emerging American manufacturing industry.

As Robert Lighthizer, former U.S. trade representative under President Trump (who is also expected to have a major role in the second Trump administration) observed in the early 2010s, “For most of its 157-year history, the Republican Party has been the party of building domestic industry by using trade policy to promote U.S. exports and fend off unfairly traded imports. American conservatives have had that view for even longer.” From Alexander Hamilton to Presidents William McKinley and Calvin Coolidge, tariffs and other protectionist economic policies have long been defining elements of the American conservative tradition.

In 2016, after decades of economic failures wrought by a rigid Republican commitment to unfettered international trade, the Trump administration’s tariff-based approach sought to return the party to its roots. As Trump understood, tariffs are effective not only in that they force other countries to pay for foreign imports, but also in that they bring manufacturing back to American shores and protect the economic interests of America’s working class.

Throughout his first four years in office, Trump imposed tariffs on $1.8 billion in imports of washing machines, $8.5 billion in imports of solar panels, and hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods. He also instituted additional tariffs on foreign aluminum and steel products and later authorized $28 billion in aid, which was funded in full by the tariffs paid by China, for farmers who had long been subjected to detrimental trade policies.

Trump also negotiated with Japan to cut tariffs and open its market to $7 billion in American agricultural products, which was of notable benefit to American farmers. After successive administrations shelled out taxpayer dollars to foreign countries, Trump finally ensured American producers were taken care of first.

Despite headlines that insisted Trump’s tariffs would “Hurt America More Than China” and “hurt the U.S. economy rather than benefit American workers,” research has found that the vast majority of the cost increases from Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods were paid by the Chinese consumers rather than American consumers. As Peter Navarro, former Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy in the Trump White House, explained, China paid for the tariffs in three ways: by “cutting their prices,” crushing their currency value, and dealing with a “fleeing” supply chain. As Lighthizer wrote for The Economist, “The backlash from farmers and others that was predicted by pundits never happened.”

Furthermore, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration triggered an exodus of American companies out of China, curbing Chinese investment. Consequently, even Biden Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo was forced to concede that Trump’s tariffs were “effective” in their protection of American manufacturing industries. Notably, Biden kept—and in some cases even increased—Trump’s preexisting China tariffs.

Throughout the course of his 2024 campaign, Trump once again advanced a broad tariff agenda, calling specifically to “phase in a system of universal, baseline tariffs on most foreign products” to build up American industries.

“As tariffs on foreign producers go up, taxes on American producers will go down and go down very substantially. And that means a lot of jobs coming in,” Trump said in a policy video. “Not only will this system end our gaping trade deficits—and they are massive right now—and bring back millions of American jobs—it will also bring trillions and trillions of dollars pouring into the U.S. Treasury from foreign countries and allow us to invest that money in American workers, American families, and American communities.”

Trump has also detailed plans to revoke China’s “most favored nation” trade status and adopt new rules preventing American companies from “pouring investments into China, along with calling for the passage of the “Trump Reciprocal Trade Act,” under which “other countries will have two choices—they’ll get rid of their tariffs on us, or they will pay us hundreds of billions of dollars, and the United States will make an absolute fortune.”

“There will be no more unilateral economic surrender like we’ve done for many, many decades,” Trump has further said. According to some reports, Trump is even considering imposing tariffs as a means to end the federal income tax—which would mark a historic return to the nation’s 19th century economic attitude.

Following the successes of Trump’s trade war and reinstatement of tariffs in foreign and economic policy, the path forward for the nation should be strikingly clear. Rather than remaining inflexibly tied to the international trade policies that have sparked decades’ worth of American economic decay and led to a hollowing out of our manufacturing industry and the loss of millions of jobs, the American ruling class should follow President Trump’s America First economic model of low taxes on Americans and increased tariffs on foreign producers.

During an October discussion on tariffs with Bloomberg’s editor-in-chief and “free trade” absolutist John Micklethwait, Trump delivered a well-deserved swing at the economic expert class—including Micklethwait himself—for defending globalist trade policies and imperiling American industries for generations. “They’ve been wrong about everything,” Trump said of the economic establishment. “So have you, by the way, you’ve been wrong. You’ve been wrong all your life on this stuff.”

Starting this January, the establishment class of globalist elites bemoaning the use of tariffs will almost certainly be reminded that they are wrong yet again—and that a strong tariff platform will not only further the interests of American industries, American workers, and American families, but also ensure enduring American prosperity.

Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.

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Stephen Leonard
Stephen Leonard
8 days ago

It’s good that you put “experts” in quotes, because in recent years self-proclaimed “experts” have, like their leader Joe Biden, been consistently wrong about basically everything. I had to laugh at the news yesterday that Biden was offering Trump advice on tariffs – Biden, who has never managed to get anything right over the entire, miserable, disgraceful half-century he has contaminated our politics with his toxic presence.

Thinking
Thinking
8 days ago

The dems are losing their plan to destroy America and to become a communist country. That is why they won’t accept the election results. They don’t believe in the power of the people. Most people don’t understand tariffs and how they work. They get a bunch of economists to sign a paper how ineffective tariffs are. Just like they got scientists, virologists to sign a paper that COVID came from the wet market in Wuhan not the lab. They can create any scenario but Trump is in the White House now and he cuts through their plans. They can’t take it so they jump on this to make Trump fail. They don’t care if it hurts the country and it’s people. There is only one good regime to rule America. in their mind that is Obama’s communist policies. They don’t care about America nor the people.

Nick
Nick
8 days ago

These must be the same experts that can tell us what the what the temperature will be in 50 years, but they can’t tell us what it’s going to be next week.

TPS
TPS
8 days ago

We need to stop dems, elites and rinos from trying to block Trump at every turn. We elected him to make much need changes and we must stand firm against the biased self-serving politicians. IMO

Michael
Michael
8 days ago

The better questions beside those that don’t care would be, “Did you pay attention to the good President Trump did in his first four year serving you and I?

Paul
Paul
8 days ago

The so called experts of the Democratic Party!
That single handedly tried there best to DESTROY AMERICA!
MAGA!

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
8 days ago

NO More Ivy League “experts”
Dump them, vet them out if Usable

Tommy2sweet
Tommy2sweet
8 days ago

“Unleash the Cracken!!” Let Trump do his magic!!

Tony
Tony
8 days ago

Of course the nutjobs from the left would object because they are let’s say, NUTJOBS! Illiterate fools who have no knowledge of history and the successes of the real patriots of this country…very well written article to remind us of why we have been the greatest country in the world…now to get rid of wokeness!

Melinda
Melinda
8 days ago

Nice short history of tariffs. It would be nice to do away with the income tax and the IRS, but the country is not the same as in the 19th century, so would tariffs create enough money to pay for our bloated bureaucracy? Maybe, if Elon and Vivek can streamline government to be more efficient. What a wonder that would be!

Jim
Jim
8 days ago

All these so-called “experts” aren’t worth the powder to blow them to hell. All they do is promote the swamp and “swayed” thinking.
If you are about to hear an “experts” words on anything, run the other way because what they have to say is most probably based on politics: something none of us need.

FJBFKH
FJBFKH
8 days ago

Really good article! Thank you!

Robert Zuccaro
Robert Zuccaro
8 days ago

Experts said Hunter Bidens computer didn’t exist then arrested James O’Kieffe for possession of a “fictitious” diary. Experts still sell COVID shots to children that don’t need them. Coincidentally every “expert” is on the receiving end of funding or payoka!

Leslie
Leslie
8 days ago

America does need to start MAKING things again. If tariffs can help us do that, then fine. BUT, we cannot continue to bail out failing businesses. How stupid is it to give a loan to a company that is already NOT making a profit? If any industry needs subsidies, it is agriculture. BUT, food for Americans not corporate agribusinesses that export to China and elsewhere. When China bought out Smithfield, I missed their ham, but I am committed to buying as few Chinese products as is possible. I love shrimp but almost all comes from Asian countries who farm the shrimp on the bottom of the fish who feed on chickens on top (ick), so I have to pay twice the amount to get US companies like one in Texas.

Theresa Coughlin
Theresa Coughlin
8 days ago

when have the “experts” been right about anything?

Veteran
Veteran
8 days ago

Elimination of the 16th Amendment, the IRS, and income tax should be the logical next steps, not only will it restore American prosperity, but it will shrink the federal government by way more than the 87,000 employees Joe Biden added to the IRS. Tariffs will be more than sufficient to support what the Founders envisioned for the federal government, which by and large was national defense, customs and border patrol, and a State Department to negotiate treaties that are beneficial to American citizens, and represent their interest abroad, all else is an intrusion by the federal government into the affais of the states, and of American citizens. The appropriate name for such action would be “The Affordable Federal Government Act of 2025” which would not only be appropriate but also a poke in the eye for Obama and his more than “Un”-affordable healthcare act. As for the “economist experts” they are just that ex-perts, meaning they were pertinent once before they embraced accepted standards of the moneyed elite who favored “outsourcing” (cleartext: firing American workers and closing production facilities in the U.S.), and seeking, and exploiting cheap foreign labor; since they sold out and have become “experts”, advocating for the continued boom and bust carousel, their opinions are no longer pertinent, or even remotely correct.

Kim
Kim
8 days ago

Biden increased tariffs, primarily on Chinese goods, for EV’s, solar panels, medical supplies, minerals, steel, aluminum, and other products. He increased them to higher rates than Trump’s.

When the left insists that tariffs will increase inflation, I ask the simple question: What was the inflation rate while Trump was president? We have rarely seen such low inflation rates, so that argument falls flat.

Dot whitley
Dot whitley
8 days ago

Anybody who needs to be called an expert is pretty much good for nothing. All good things come from God, so lets all humble ourselves and give God the glory for all good things. If we can’t honestly give God the glory, then we aren’t doing anything worth mentioning.

uncleferd
uncleferd
8 days ago

In other words, Trump’s trade policies, when in force, have also significantly boosted our national security… something that many here, inexplicably, have no interest in.

Cher
Cher
8 days ago

Consider this: yes, some prices may go up. OK. But your Taxes are going DOWN, as America gets renewed and energized, and ESPECIALLY as the gas Pipeline finally gets finished! and fracking and oil drilling is opened up again! FINALLY! AND as DEI is outlawed, and ‘Sanctuary Cities’ are made ILLEGAL, as they should be!!! AND as the Borders are CLOSED to Illegals!!! Some things are WORTH PAYING FOR. And it won’t matter when you have more $$$$ in your pocket, and prices all over start coming DOWN!

Drue
Drue
7 days ago

Fed up with cheap Chinese compressed air chucks (Those implements fastened to an air hose to put air in your tires) I could not find one made in America! What a disappointment. Wake up America; we need to make items in our own country, lest we become too dependent on foreign made products. I will gladly pay more for a quality, American made tool. President-elect Trump is right. We need tariffs to level the playing field. Tariffs have been used for well over 100 years to made trade equal. Don’t listen to the Democrats and the far left. Trump has America’s back!

Neal M Christensen
Neal M Christensen
8 days ago

Trump is a successful businessman, not a politician. He knows how to make an economy work.

CLIFFORD F GERACI
CLIFFORD F GERACI
8 days ago

The corrupt corporate media is going to claim calamity with every move Trump makes. They will ignore his accomplishments and might even lie, as they did about the Clinton paid for Russia hoax. They are irrelevant, and should be treated as such.

Jim
Jim
8 days ago

Tariffs would be outstanding for America. Repeal the 16th Amendment (income tax). Let all working Americans keep what they earn and put the federal government money from tariffs: that’s how our Founders set up America to begin with The federal government would drastically shrink and most of the so-called “experts” would disappear and we all would be so very much better off.
1913 was a bad year for America. Wilson was president (he was a fledgling communist) and two bad things happened: the 16th Amendment (income tax) and the Federal Reserve began. Both of these allowed government to grow and Congress to spend our money like drunken fools.
It’s time to tighten our belts, reign in the spending, get rid of the nearly 100 federal welfare programs and tell those welfare people to go get a job and be responsible for what they do.

VikkiC
VikkiC
8 days ago

Hand wringing tinpots all!! I bet they couldn’t find their butts with both hands!!

Bernard
Bernard
8 days ago

Our Republican Town Committee’s work before the election in a heavily Democratic area proved that, if we band together we can crush the life out of these Reprehensibles, because that is what they are. Folks do listen to common sense and arguments that hit home. Calvin Coolidge is one of the least studied of the Presidents, but his words hit home today. He never ran a deficit, only surpluses. The economy flourished until Hoover screwed the pooch.

uncleferd
uncleferd
8 days ago

As others have suggested, the “Obama Approach” to international trade was to undermine us, economically, and politically, on our trade tariff structure, while misrepresenting the result as an effect of “globalization”… until President Trump, during his first term, exposed this wretched misrepresentation, with tariffs that made sense and protected our economy and national security. The entirety of Obama’s and Biden’s “Presidential” terms, which spanned from 2008-2016, and then, 2020-Now (due to ballot fraud), has been a full dozen years of not only economic and legislative damage, but damage to America’s national image. We now have a chance to rebuild our national and economic security, as well as our image, trade, and role among leading nations. WE SHOULD NEVER AGAIN forfeit our well-being to a political party that, both literally and actually, takes deliberate action to “sell” our interests for their personal and political gain.

Constitution
Constitution
8 days ago

The only thing they are exerts on is disinformation!

zeke
zeke
8 days ago

X is an unknown quantity
spert is a drip of water
which makes an expert an unknown drip of water

Fred
Fred
8 days ago

DEFINITION of EXPERT A DRIP THAT HAS FALLEN. Like from a faucet

Theresa Coughlin
Theresa Coughlin
8 days ago

when the “experts” been right about anything?

Cher
Cher
8 days ago

The ‘experts’ are ALWAYS WRONG! It should just be a no-brainer now, that WHATEVER ‘the experts’ tell us, is REALLY JUST THE OPPOSITE! Go with ‘the opposite is true’ whenever THEY speak!!! We’d all be better off if we did just THAT!

Mike B
Mike B
8 days ago

It all sounds great. I hope it all comes to pass and that the MSM recognize it then.

Nancy Stull
Nancy Stull
7 days ago

I am all for let’s try President Trumps way with tariffs, after all with 4 years already in office, and the idea was working, let’s try for the whole 4 years of tariffs, and see where we all are.

Diane L. Jackson
Diane L. Jackson
12 hours ago

Thank you for clarifying exactly what tariffs are and giving us a history lesson on the use of tariffs in our country. GOD bless President Trump and GOD bless the United States of America in the Name of Jesus Christ.

johnh
johnh
8 days ago

Explain to me how did Trump get the $28 Billion from tariffs that he gave as aid to farmers? Did not us consumers pay this tariff on the goods we buy, cuz that just raised the price of that commodity. It is my understanding that the USA does not have any operating Aluminum mines so does not that mean that we have to buy from another source and if we put tariff tax on this, do not we pay more for all aluminum imports:

johnh
johnh
8 days ago

Tariffs are a dangerous game as in reality , world trade is good for the world as a whole. In my opinion, the world is better off if countries have an income from selling their goods & most of the time use that money to import goods they do not have. This planet Earth Would be a total disaster if only 6-4 countries were filthy rich and the rest are dirt poor.

jrj90620
jrj90620
8 days ago

Those experts are 100% correct.This isn’t the same America as 1900.We have massive government,greedy unions,millions of ambulence chasing lawyers and millions of spoiled/lazy workers.If we move from importing from Asia and elsewhere,to making stuff in the U.S.,expect massive inflation and a lower standard of living.Of course,if things get bad enough,maybe it will discourage some immigration and densification of our country.

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