How Trump’s Fracking Bet Is Paying Off in Iran

While the Iran conflict has led to higher gasoline prices for American drivers (although even those are beginning to come down), it has also underscored the importance of U.S. energy independence — and particularly the natural gas extraction technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.” President Donald Trump’s efforts to prioritize domestic energy production throughout both of his terms in office now look like more than just sound economics. They look like a geopolitical masterstroke.

Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, American policymakers have repeatedly viewed a direct conflict with Tehran through the same strategic constraint: the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption and more than 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade moves through this narrow waterway, giving Iran a potential pressure point over the world economy.

Following the commencement of U.S.-Israeli military operations in Iran earlier this year, that concern was no longer theoretical. But thanks to the fracking revolution and the expansion of domestic energy production, the United States has faced no serious threat of the kind of energy shortages Americans endured in the 1970s.

In fact, the United States has expanded its lead as the world’s largest LNG exporter, helping fill a global need created by the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz.

As Substack author Quico Toro argues, the fracking revolution helped make a direct confrontation with Iran far more strategically viable. “Little by little, fracking loosened the grip the Strait of Hormuz had on American strategy,” he writes. “Fracking turned natural gas, which used to be an afterthought, into an energy source as important as oil.”

A new report from the University of California, Berkeley Energy Institute underscores just how vital fracking and natural gas have been for U.S. national security — and for the wallets of working Americans. In total, the report finds, fracking saved U.S. natural gas consumers $3.1 trillion to $4.3 trillion from 2007 to 2025. That works out to $164 billion to $227 billion per year, or roughly $494 to $685 per person annually.

Fracking has also given U.S. producers a dramatic advantage over foreign competitors. According to the report, U.S. natural gas averaged $5.30 per thousand cubic feet, compared with $14.40 in Europe and $16.10 in Japan — a persistent $9 to $11 per Mcf price advantage.

Those savings did not stop with natural gas bills. The report found that electric power consumers saw their costs fall by nearly 40 percent after the expansion of fracking. Industrial, residential, and commercial customers also benefited, with bill reductions ranging from 13 percent to 30 percent. In the words of the report, “every single person in the U.S.” has benefited from low-priced shale gas.

President Trump did not invent fracking – the shale revolution was already underway when he entered office. But Trump understood something many in Washington either ignored or actively resisted in that fracking was not merely an industrial breakthrough, but a national security asset.

That is why Trump’s first administration moved quickly to clear away the regulatory obstacles that had accumulated under President Obama.

In 2017, the Trump Interior Department rescinded the Obama-era fracking rule for federal and Indian lands, which had threatened to bury producers in new paperwork, casing mandates, wastewater rules, and disclosure requirements. The rule had been tied up in litigation and never fully took effect, but the message to industry was that Washington was preparing to actively stifle a bubbling energy boom.

Trump sent the opposite message. His administration treated oil, gas, pipelines, permits, and LNG export infrastructure as instruments of American power rather than obstacles to overcome. Methane rules and other Obama-era mandates were scaled back. Federal agencies were instructed to prioritize energy development. LNG export approvals accelerated.

“President Trump put affordable energy front and center, unlike President Obama,” said Dr. Ole Næss, who led special projects at Norway’s Statoil in the late 1980s. Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” posture, Næss added, signaled “an embrace of energy abundance.”

The results were not merely theoretical. During Trump’s first term, the United States became a net energy exporter for the first time in decades. In the years that followed, America became the world’s leading LNG exporter, giving allies in Europe and Asia an alternative to energy dependence on hostile or unstable regimes.

That is the real meaning of the fracking revolution. It did not just lower utility bills or give American manufacturers cheaper feedstock, though it did both. It gave the United States strategic depth. It made America less vulnerable to OPEC, Russia, and Iran. It gave Washington more freedom of action in moments of crisis. And it gave U.S. allies a lifeline when Moscow weaponized gas supplies after invading Ukraine.

Now, as the conflict with Iran again places the Strait of Hormuz at the center of world energy markets, Trump’s long-term bet on American energy abundance looks prescient. A weaker, more import-dependent America would be forced to calculate every move against Tehran through the fear of energy blackmail. A fracking-powered America has far more room to maneuver.

That is not just an economic advantage, but active deterrence. Removing this critical point of leverage against the United States is the definition of “America First,” and has empowered the country to pursue its goals and protect its allies without fear of foreign adversaries shutting off the lights.

Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.