Heading into the midterm elections, Democrats believe that they have the upper hand on the “affordability” issue. But Republicans have an opportunity to flip the script and put Democrats on the defensive if they frame fighting fraud as a key part of making life more affordable.
In 2025, Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia won big in off-year elections by hammering “affordability” and blaming persistent cost-of-living frustrations that were largely a result of Biden-era policies on President Donald Trump and Republicans. As dishonest as the strategy was, it proved effective.
In the Old Dominion, former Democrat Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger cruised to a 15-point victory over former Lt. Governor Winsome Sears in the gubernatorial race. In the Garden State, former Democrat Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill easily defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 14 points to secure the governor’s mansion.
Following those elections, the Democratic Governors Association bragged that both victories were about “affordability, affordability, affordability,” and that Sherrill and Spanberger “ran and won on the economy.”
Of course, since then Democrats’ “affordability” messaging has been exposed for the sham that it always was. As AMAC Newsline previously reported, Spanberger has come under fire for signing a bill returning Virginia to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which is expected to add about $500 million per year to Virginians’ power bills. She also reneged on her promise to work with “any party” to repeal the state’s car tax and failed to usher through any new tax cuts.
Nonetheless, Democrats believe that they can run that same “affordability” playbook nationwide, as public polling shows that Americans are still frustrated about prices, particularly the cost of gas.
But Democrats have a glaring vulnerability on the affordability front – the massive fraud scandals that have dominated headlines in recent months.
The first domino to fall was in Minnesota, when independent journalist Nick Shirley highlighted systemic fraud in Minnesota’s federally funded and state-administered childcare and transportation programs. At least 47 individuals have now been charged with stealing about $250 million from a pandemic-era child nutrition program – and that’s just one of many fraud investigations in the North Star State. City Journal’s Chris Rufo also revealed that millions of dollars from Minnesota welfare fraud schemes may have been funneled to the Somali terrorist group Al-Shabaab.
The political potency of the fraud issue quickly became evident as Minnesota Governor Tim Walz dropped his re-election bid just days after the scandal went mainstream. Walz, who appeared to be on an upward political trajectory after his selection as former Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate in 2024, has now become politically toxic over his failure to stop the large-scale theft of Americans’ tax dollars.
Similar high-profile investigations into hospice fraud in California, home care fraud in Ohio, and autism services fraud in North Carolina have further put Democrats on the defensive. Democrats reflexively downplay fraud as nonexistent or a minor issue while accusing anyone who says that fraud is a problem of being a “racist” or a “conspiracy theorist.”
But Americans are indeed angry about the theft of their tax dollars. 71 percent of voters believe that fraud in government welfare programs is “extremely or very common,” according to a May Fox News poll. Another survey from the State Financial Officers Foundation (SFOF) found that 52 percent of voters say the government has not gone far enough to identify and stop fraud.
The key now is for Republicans to connect fraud to affordability. The SFOF poll suggests that voters already intuitively understand the link, with 83 percent of respondents saying that fraud contributes to rising taxes and higher costs for their families.
Republicans must make the case that every dollar stolen from taxpayers through welfare fraud, Medicaid scams, unemployment fraud, or other schemes is a dollar that working Americans had to earn first. When the government tolerates that theft, families already struggling with groceries, gas, housing, and healthcare are forced to subsidize corruption.
The result is higher taxes, bigger deficits, more wasteful spending, and less help for the people these programs were designed to serve. Fraud also drives up costs across the system by encouraging more bureaucracy, more compliance costs, and more government dependency.
The Trump administration’s fraud-fighting efforts should accordingly be a powerful tool for GOP candidates to latch onto as the fall campaign season heats up. In March, Trump tapped Vice President JD Vance to lead an anti-fraud task force that should be something Republicans can point to in their campaigns. More Republicans in Congress means more tools and resources for the Trump administration to crack down on fraud.
The task force, the White House said recently, “is moving at unprecedented speed and ferocity to root out the waste, abuse, and criminal exploitation of government programs that have drained billions from hardworking taxpayers.”
“This is a direct offensive against every fraudulent scheme preying on hardworking Americans — and the results are already staggering,” the administration stated, listing a series of victories. These include guilty pleas, suspensions of hospice licenses, and nationwide audits of Medicaid spending.
According to a poll from the Senate Republican Conference, 51 percent of independents approve of the anti-fraud initiative, along with 86 percent of Republicans.
Americans are the most generous people in the world, and a wide array of welfare programs consistently receive broad bipartisan support. But Americans also want and deserve to know that their hard-earned tax dollars are not going to thieves and fraudsters – making life more expensive in the process.
Republicans are the only party with a proven track record of addressing that concern. They should lean on it heavily between now and November.
Matt Lamb is an AMAC Newsline contributor and associate editor for The College Fix. He previously worked for Students for Life of America, Students for Life Action, and Turning Point USA. He previously interned for Open the Books. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Examiner, The Federalist, LifeSiteNews, Human Life Review, Headline USA, and other outlets. The opinions expressed are his own. Follow him @mattlamb22 on X.
The Democrats have already demonstrated their plans of action. As stated, will the Republicans come with a viable game plan that will counteract the Democrats? The answer remains to be seen.