Are We Already Headed for Another Shutdown?

The federal government has been reopened for just one week following the longest shutdown in history. But there are some indications that the country could be headed for yet another funding stalemate early next year.

Last Monday, eight Democrats crossed the aisle to finally end their gridlock crusade and clear the way for a continuing resolution (CR) to pass. Hours later, the House voted to end the shutdown after 43 days.

The left-wing base was predictably outraged at the news, launching accusations of betrayal and threatening to primary the Democrats who broke ranks. But as I argued last week, most elected Democrats were secretly relieved that the money would start flowing again.

However, while one shutdown may be over, another is already looming on the horizon. The CR that Congress passed last week only runs for 79 days, expiring on January 30. While enough Democrats voted for the CR this time, the underlying policy disagreements that led to the funding lapse on October 1 – most notably support for extending temporary Obamacare subsidies – have not been resolved and will only grow more acute in the new year.

If January 30 seems like a long way off, consider that Congress passed the last CR on March 18. That gave senators and representatives more than six months to come up with a solution to avoid a shutdown – a task that they failed to accomplish. Now Congress will have less than half that time to pass another funding bill that can get 60 votes in the Senate. The House is scheduled to be in session just 13 more days this calendar year, while the Senate is scheduled to be in session for 16 days. (The schedules for January 2026 are not yet available.)

(A quick technical note here: In theory, Congress is supposed to pass 12 separate appropriations bills each fiscal year to fund different parts of the federal government. When lawmakers can’t agree on one or more of those bills by the deadline, they pass a CR to keep funding at current or slightly adjusted levels for a set period as a stopgap measure. The last time Congress passed all 12 bills on time was in Fiscal Year 1997. In recent years, Congress has either bundled some or all 12 funding bills together in “minibus” or “omnibus” packages or passed a series of CRs.)

Currently, Republican leaders in both the House and the Senate have publicly expressed optimism that they can pass a series of minibus bills before January 30. But doing so would require at least 60 votes in the Senate for each package.

Republicans also have to contend with a historically slim majority of just one seat in the House, assuming all lawmakers are present. While a few Democrats voted with Republicans this time, the GOP can’t always count on Democrat votes to offset potential defections. If Democrats sense any dissent within the GOP ranks, they have already proven that they are willing to side with a small group of Republicans to sabotage votes.

Moreover, the expanded Obamacare subsidies that Democrats were so upset about actually expire at the end of this calendar year. The pressure on Democrats will be even higher to hold government funding hostage to force Republicans to vote to extend the subsidies, which are projected to cost $400 billion over the next decade alone and provide taxpayer-funded plans for people making (in some cases) $500,000 per year.

There’s also the fact that Democrats increasingly appear willing to intentionally inflict suffering on the American people if they believe it will hurt President Donald Trump politically. They openly admitted as much during the shutdown, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying that “every day gets better for us” and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark referring to Americans who weren’t receiving paychecks or benefits as “leverage.”

The corporate media exacerbated this problem by creating an echo chamber telling Democrats that they were “winning” the shutdown. Liberal pundits assured them that their victories in the November 4 elections were in part due to their obstructionist tactics. The left-wing base loudly cheered on those Democrats who were the strongest voices for keeping the government closed indefinitely.

The one potential ray of hope for avoiding a shutdown is if Republicans can craft a healthcare reform bill that garners enough Democrat support to pass. As part of the deal to end the shutdown, Senate Majority Leader John Thune promised a vote on a bill to extend the expiring Obamacare subsidies. House Speaker Mike Johnson has indicated that he has no interest in bringing such a measure up in the House if it can pass the Senate – but he nonetheless has recognized the need for some sort of action as premiums continue to rise irrespective of the subsidies expiring.

Healthcare reform has been the white whale for Republicans ever since Obamacare passed in 2010. The GOP correctly recognizes that Obamacare was sold on a pack of lies, has only made health insurance more unaffordable, and is rapidly moving the country toward a failed socialist model like what exists in Canada and Western Europe. But Republicans haven’t yet cracked the code for a replacement model that is both accessible and affordable.

It may be that such a solution remains elusive, and the government is barreling toward another closure that will only end in more suffering for everyday Americans. But perhaps the lessons of the last shutdown will be just enough to spur some long overdue progress and – even more scandalously in a deeply divided Washington – some real bipartisan collaboration on the issues that matter most to the public.

Shane Harris is the Editor in Chief of AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.