Beijing is learning from Russia’s attack on Ukraine, some novel lessons. If Beijing aims to attack contiguous countries, and indications are Taiwan, India, and less powerful nations are at risk, Communist China will not parrot Russia. Why?
Russia, which China declared a stout ally weeks ago, is stumbling badly. The lessons are many, continue to mount, and are creating a geopolitical backdraft, searing what seemed untouchable, teaching what seemed lessons not worth learning.
First, the so-called Modern Russian Army was supposed to be quick on its feet, nimble in ways the old Soviet Army and Navy were not. It was supposed to be well equipped, supplied, and manned, with the ability to move on orders with speed.
That has proved a fiction, happy self-delusion that, in time of war, appears not only untrue, but an embarrassment. Yes, Russia has superior firepower, numbers, and stamina. Russia is Russia, but the counterforce, power, and spirit of resistance have proved more than competent.
The resistance has proved it can win on the battlefield, inflicting serious damage. It can also win in the world of public relations, drawing hearts and minds to the cause. This, in turn, ramps up support. Russia seems to have miscalculated the odds of a swift battlefield win, and the impact of losing the storyline.
Second, China is witnessing – with all of us – a seemingly enormous failure of Russian intelligence. Sometimes intelligence failures are predictable. When the target is closed, information thin, human intelligence vital, and national technical means limited, things go sideways.
When the US sought to assess and act on what intelligence we had from Iraq in the early 2000s, knowing sources and methods were limited, inferences many, more unknown than known, the odds were even, we might get it wrong, and we did.
On the other hand, when sources are open, penetrated, battlefield conditions are obvious to the point of transparency, and wrong questions get asked, right questions never asked, and the outcome is presumed to be positive when a little research might reveal even odds, the intelligence community has failed. Not to see that Ukrainians, like Poles in the 1980s, would fight to the death was a Russian Intel failure.
Third, as China gathers data from this conflict, unseen factors – the shadow of history, often ignored – can be powerful. Unseen historical factors can be so powerful they overwhelm what seemed facts.
An example from the past: When World War II began, Nazi Germany had 60 divisions, battle-hardened. The US had one. Missing from early analyses by Germany was the spirit that animated Americans, the power that resides in defenders of freedom, democracy, the right – and its power never quit.
Missing from Russian analysis was an appreciation for the history of those in Ukraine who resented Soviet domination, who resist a reshaping of history that fails their life experience is off base. Even is many Russians consider Ukraine some kind of birthright, many Ukrainians do not subscribe to that story.
Fourth, Russia – and China will take stock of this – underestimated the power of diffuse, seemingly disconnected, feuding democratic governments – and their corporate sectors – to come together when the chips are down when what made them who they are is put at risk.
Europe, America, and much of the world indulge in economic and political sword crossing – when indulging comes with few costs, some economic, some prestige-oriented, nothing existential. But when a communist, autocratic, pseudo-fascist country decides to go “medieval” and attack, they come together.
This, too, seems lost on Russia and yet will be understood now by China. If you attack a free nation, assuming the rest of the world is amoral, immoral, or indifferent – watch your six because the power of unity can be deafening.
Fifth, Russia’s cyber prowess has somehow vanished. They were expected to coordinate attacks in the physical and cyber worlds, but they have failed. The failure is glaring. If China has adventurist ambitions – which it plainly does – they are rethinking the cyber-physical connection.
The failure is remarkable. While some US defense contractors, LNG suppliers, and exporters, and Ukrainian companies, government institutions, and personnel have been targets, the impact has been modest, and the counterforce – state and non-state actors attacking Russia – has been real.
Rather than expected coordination, “significant cyberattacks in Ukraine, shutting down the country’s electrical grid for example … large-scale operations have not materialized.” See, Where is Russia’s cyber blitzkrieg?.
If “cyberattacks and disinformation are definitely a part of Russia’s overall strategy to stoke chaos and inspire fear,” coordination has been hard to see or track, leading many to think the art is undeveloped. See, e.g., Tracking Cyber Operations and Actors in the Russia-Ukraine War; Hackers Targeted U.S. LNG Producers in Run-Up to Ukraine War.
What China will draw from all this might be – caution. The early thinking was that China would root for Russia, knowing the invasion was coming. Their recent “security pact” would be the first stage of a multi-faceted, mutually reinforcing confrontation with the free world, Western territory to ideals.
However, what this invasion is showing cannot be missed by China. Military modernization, effective intelligence, applicable history, Western unity, and cyber-physical coordination all matter. You get them wrong, even one of them wrong – let alone all of them – and you will stumble, start sucking air, and have to change on the fly – with no clear outcome.
China may draw lessons from this conflict no one thought in the cards. Russia is demonstrating how not to attack a free country, how not to be a senseless aggressor, how not to conduct short war, what happens when you get big pieces wrong – capability, supply lines, morale, intelligence, history lessons, Western resolve, cyber coordination, and motivation of free people to fight.
China is learning – or they should be. The lesson is sobering might encourage future stability.
Russia in the real sense is trying to restore the old Soviet Union, this is Avery dangerous period for this region of world.
They have interpreters that already know Russian and vice versa.
Wow, this was written a far lefter! Whoa! Time to cancel AMAC subscription asap! They’ve lost their minds! Do they do any research at all about the US biolabs with dangerous pathogens in Ukraine and why Biden’s Administration was worried they didn’t have their “Materials” secured? Probably Russia did us all a huge favor. No one should be agreeing with China. Wow, AMAC, you continue to disappoint. Won’t be renewing ever!
Regardless of if they are learning from Russia, it is overdue to teach them a lesson in regards to trade, espionage, election interference, and theft of intellectual property. Our country should cancel all trade with China, ban it, ban any type of exchange with China whether trade, sports, academic, or otherwise, close all Confucius Institutes, confiscate all property acquired by China within our borders (companies, real estate, stock,…) and auction it off to the highest U.S. bidder, as well as cancel all our debt with China as reparations for the intellectual theft and damages they inflicted, expel all Chinese foreign students, and inform any OAS partner country that should they trade, or in any way deal with Communist China they will no longer be able to participate in trade with the U.S., in addition Tik Tok and other Chinese software, used for propaganda and spying in our country should be banned as well. I bet you China would no longer ignore anything we say, and we would have their rapt attention while class is in session. Alas, Soggy Bottom Boy Biden has been bought and paid for by the CCP, so he will continue to do their bidding slavishly.
Good article. Russia has always exaggerated it’s capabilities even when it was the former Soviet Union. The US first found out shortly after Sputnik and the perceived numerical superiority of Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Soviets had but a tenth of what we were lead to believe they had. The Soviets when they held their annual May day parade in Moscow would simply drive around the square the same mobile missile launchers over and over again, giving the impression of a large numbers of missiles, and they’ve done so ever since.
If it weren’t for Russia’s constant spying and stealing of our intellectual property, I don’t think they would have nearly the Army, Navy or Air force they have now…that goes double for China.
Observing then acting later???
RBC,
China has been observing and taking note of the miscalculations of both Russia, as well as NATO and the United States regarding both Ukraine and Putin. They have been observing and adapting their strategies and tactics on how to achieve their goals against a once overwhelming superior West for decades and to date, they have been remarkedly successful at reading the leaders of the Western world to the immense benefit of China. Today China is the second most powerful economic and military force on earth and to think just 30 years ago, they were essentially a backward, technologically stifled, second-rate power barely able to feed its own people. China should NOT be under-estimated, yet again, by those in Washington.
Do NOT apply the western view of how China “should act” to how China will actually act. Do NOT project your views and cultural norms onto an adversary, meaning President Xi and the CCP specifically, that views the world far differently than we do. All the writings publicly available from China over the last 20 years suggest an adversary with a starkly different world view and sense of mission than what western leaders are used to, so we should take that into account in any assessment of future Chinese actions. The objective should be to out-think your adversary, so you anticipate their actions ahead of time and neutralize any advantage they may possess ahead of time. We should NOT simply be hoping China will act in the same cautious manner most modern-day western leaders would. Instead look at how they assess matters and learn for it, so we can potentially and proactively counter their actions.
As for Putin, the subject has been beaten to death at this point. Yes, he and his generals miscalculated the will of the Ukrainian people to fight back, but he largely got right the fact that the West wouldn’t proactively act to sanction Russia in the 12 months before Putin made his move or arm Ukraine with additional heavy weapons to make Putin reassess the viability of his plan. So lets call it 50 percent right and 50 percent wrong. At this point, Putin will continue until he either gets Ukraine to give him most of what he wants or he decides to level the country as a message to the West. At this point, Putin is in face saving mode. Unfortunately, the people of Ukraine are in the middle. They have proven to be the kind of brave, patriot and tough people the rest of the world should be very proud of.
China will make similar if not same mistakes as Russia. One thing the COMMUNIST Parties should have learned a long time ago…NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FREEDOM.
FREEDOM WILL WIN EVERY TIME.
It took Russia 80 years to turn into the Nazis; congratulations, Putin. There are some additional lessons that China might learn from Russian stupidity. If I were Putin, I would not turn my back on China. Now that China knows Russia is a “Paper Tiger.” They might start pushing against some old border disputes. As far as U.S. current incompetent administration, three years will pass quickly, and soon President Trump will be in the White House and then look out Russia and China. I do not think Ukraine will be selling much food to China. And Russia has plenty of reparations owed to Ukraine.
Excellent article! Although I disagree on one point. Some so-called “intelligence failures” are the result of subordinates telling the leadership what they want to hear. Who in their right mind would tell Putin the Russia’s military is completely screwed up? Certainly not the commanders. More often, the leadership won’t respond appropriately because of political concerns or the inability to accept the truth.
Intelligence is an art. So is decision-making.
Lord, have mercy on Ukraine. Please take over Putin’s heart and change him to the core.
Can we imagine how things would have gone with a real president in the White House?
Think about that. Biden and his puppeteers have a lot to answer for, Murders of Americans and others, their blood is on this administration’s hands. Every ensuing bad action is on the hands of the left. They cannot escape responsibility. Every hunger, inflation, food chain tragedy – it is all caused by the left, the Marx Sisters here, the stupid and dangerous Green movement, the disastrous energy policy here. These enemies of liberty are causing everything bad that is happening including Putin’s arrogant invasion.
I hope enough Americans can see this and will vote as far right as possible in November for everything, even for dog catcher. Especially support the Club for Growth candidates.
We must enfeeble this White House and not make this mistake again. No more nice guys. We must have strong Presidents who love this country. Who cares about nasty tweets? This is the result when our side does not like someone because he is impolite and unpresidential and forget this is a dangerous world.
Just a few nights ago a Biden admin official with the State Department (Wendy Sherman) said, and I quote, “We understand and we support a one China policy”. Translation: China, you have a green light to incorporate Taiwan. What more needs to be said.
There are many Russians trying to get out of their own country , over 100,000 have left just recently. Putin has tried to lie to the people, but the smartest Russian people are leaving the country, they see no future there for them as Putin has lost his mind. Russia has been suffering a “brain drain” for several years after the end of the Soviet Union, and Putin has started something that could be the end for him, if the Ukrainians continue to resist. Ukraine has found it’s leader and the people are as loyal to him and his leadership, because he does not run from the Russians and no sign of stealing all the country’s money like past leaders that owed too much to Putin and were afraid to stand up to him. If Zelensky was not the “real deal” they would not be willing to fight and die like they are doing. I am amazed each day as they stand up to the Russian assault and their resolve to fight is even greater. I salute them; God show them love and peace.
the logistic failure is a result of they basically didn’t think that much supplies would be needed,i.e.; they were going for a cakewalk. ukraine gave them pie in the face.
While China is taking notes, we should too. How biden and most of the West handle this tragedy in Ukraine will largely determine its outcome. With the willingness Ukraine was prepared to defend itself coupled with the fact that this was Putin on the other side, I do think we and other free nations should have done more. We can do more.
This senseless war admittedly has brought out my inner hawkishness. Because Russia’s “performance” in this war has been less than stellar, a quick and decisive response early on could have spared Ukraine the devastation we see on the news every day, and put Putin in his place. That also would have informed, but not necessarily halted, Xi and his ambitions. If biden were smart, he’d do what President Trump did and get our manufacturing sector revved up. Make the U.S. strong again so we won’t have to rely on China for so much stuff. Keep the money in this country instead of funding China’s plans. But biden and the dems are blind to these realities.
A perfect storm is brewing, and it can go either way. Oil prices, biden’s weakness, NATO and the free nations, nuclear arms, unrest among the Russian people, China’s intentions…so many variables in the equation. But not doing what is needed to stop the aggression will guarantee more of it in the future. If the U.S. assumes the position of leadership, we have to to sometimes act on the behalf of others. Either declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine or give them the implements to win the war.
We have, what has to be, the most incompetent “president”, “vice president” and congress that this country has EVER had to endure. Since very little is being done to stop the dangerous BS, by Republicans or our “military”, I’m not sure we can survive the next 3 years!!
Regarding the WWII reference, I would say it was Japan that underestimated American spirit, not Nazi Germany.
Once again Robert B. Charles has put forth relatively good information only to lessen its impact with his insistence on trying to do so with dramatic flair rather than good syntax. I don’t know why AMAC continues to publish his work without first proofreading and editing it.
Russia in the real sense is trying to restore the old Soviet Union, this is Avery dangerous period for this region of world.
They have interpreters that already know Russian and vice versa.
Wow, this was written a far lefter! Whoa! Time to cancel AMAC subscription asap! They’ve lost their minds! Do they do any research at all about the US biolabs with dangerous pathogens in Ukraine and why Biden’s Administration was worried they didn’t have their “Materials” secured? Probably Russia did us all a huge favor. No one should be agreeing with China. Wow, AMAC, you continue to disappoint. Won’t be renewing ever!
Regardless of if they are learning from Russia, it is overdue to teach them a lesson in regards to trade, espionage, election interference, and theft of intellectual property. Our country should cancel all trade with China, ban it, ban any type of exchange with China whether trade, sports, academic, or otherwise, close all Confucius Institutes, confiscate all property acquired by China within our borders (companies, real estate, stock,…) and auction it off to the highest U.S. bidder, as well as cancel all our debt with China as reparations for the intellectual theft and damages they inflicted, expel all Chinese foreign students, and inform any OAS partner country that should they trade, or in any way deal with Communist China they will no longer be able to participate in trade with the U.S., in addition Tik Tok and other Chinese software, used for propaganda and spying in our country should be banned as well. I bet you China would no longer ignore anything we say, and we would have their rapt attention while class is in session. Alas, Soggy Bottom Boy Biden has been bought and paid for by the CCP, so he will continue to do their bidding slavishly.
Good article. Russia has always exaggerated it’s capabilities even when it was the former Soviet Union. The US first found out shortly after Sputnik and the perceived numerical superiority of Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Soviets had but a tenth of what we were lead to believe they had. The Soviets when they held their annual May day parade in Moscow would simply drive around the square the same mobile missile launchers over and over again, giving the impression of a large numbers of missiles, and they’ve done so ever since.
If it weren’t for Russia’s constant spying and stealing of our intellectual property, I don’t think they would have nearly the Army, Navy or Air force they have now…that goes double for China.
Observing then acting later???
RBC,
China has been observing and taking note of the miscalculations of both Russia, as well as NATO and the United States regarding both Ukraine and Putin. They have been observing and adapting their strategies and tactics on how to achieve their goals against a once overwhelming superior West for decades and to date, they have been remarkedly successful at reading the leaders of the Western world to the immense benefit of China. Today China is the second most powerful economic and military force on earth and to think just 30 years ago, they were essentially a backward, technologically stifled, second-rate power barely able to feed its own people. China should NOT be under-estimated, yet again, by those in Washington.
Do NOT apply the western view of how China “should act” to how China will actually act. Do NOT project your views and cultural norms onto an adversary, meaning President Xi and the CCP specifically, that views the world far differently than we do. All the writings publicly available from China over the last 20 years suggest an adversary with a starkly different world view and sense of mission than what western leaders are used to, so we should take that into account in any assessment of future Chinese actions. The objective should be to out-think your adversary, so you anticipate their actions ahead of time and neutralize any advantage they may possess ahead of time. We should NOT simply be hoping China will act in the same cautious manner most modern-day western leaders would. Instead look at how they assess matters and learn for it, so we can potentially and proactively counter their actions.
As for Putin, the subject has been beaten to death at this point. Yes, he and his generals miscalculated the will of the Ukrainian people to fight back, but he largely got right the fact that the West wouldn’t proactively act to sanction Russia in the 12 months before Putin made his move or arm Ukraine with additional heavy weapons to make Putin reassess the viability of his plan. So lets call it 50 percent right and 50 percent wrong. At this point, Putin will continue until he either gets Ukraine to give him most of what he wants or he decides to level the country as a message to the West. At this point, Putin is in face saving mode. Unfortunately, the people of Ukraine are in the middle. They have proven to be the kind of brave, patriot and tough people the rest of the world should be very proud of.
China will make similar if not same mistakes as Russia. One thing the COMMUNIST Parties should have learned a long time ago…NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FREEDOM.
FREEDOM WILL WIN EVERY TIME.
It took Russia 80 years to turn into the Nazis; congratulations, Putin. There are some additional lessons that China might learn from Russian stupidity. If I were Putin, I would not turn my back on China. Now that China knows Russia is a “Paper Tiger.” They might start pushing against some old border disputes. As far as U.S. current incompetent administration, three years will pass quickly, and soon President Trump will be in the White House and then look out Russia and China. I do not think Ukraine will be selling much food to China. And Russia has plenty of reparations owed to Ukraine.
Excellent article! Although I disagree on one point. Some so-called “intelligence failures” are the result of subordinates telling the leadership what they want to hear. Who in their right mind would tell Putin the Russia’s military is completely screwed up? Certainly not the commanders. More often, the leadership won’t respond appropriately because of political concerns or the inability to accept the truth.
Intelligence is an art. So is decision-making.
Lord, have mercy on Ukraine. Please take over Putin’s heart and change him to the core.
Can we imagine how things would have gone with a real president in the White House?
Think about that. Biden and his puppeteers have a lot to answer for, Murders of Americans and others, their blood is on this administration’s hands. Every ensuing bad action is on the hands of the left. They cannot escape responsibility. Every hunger, inflation, food chain tragedy – it is all caused by the left, the Marx Sisters here, the stupid and dangerous Green movement, the disastrous energy policy here. These enemies of liberty are causing everything bad that is happening including Putin’s arrogant invasion.
I hope enough Americans can see this and will vote as far right as possible in November for everything, even for dog catcher. Especially support the Club for Growth candidates.
We must enfeeble this White House and not make this mistake again. No more nice guys. We must have strong Presidents who love this country. Who cares about nasty tweets? This is the result when our side does not like someone because he is impolite and unpresidential and forget this is a dangerous world.
Just a few nights ago a Biden admin official with the State Department (Wendy Sherman) said, and I quote, “We understand and we support a one China policy”. Translation: China, you have a green light to incorporate Taiwan. What more needs to be said.
There are many Russians trying to get out of their own country , over 100,000 have left just recently. Putin has tried to lie to the people, but the smartest Russian people are leaving the country, they see no future there for them as Putin has lost his mind. Russia has been suffering a “brain drain” for several years after the end of the Soviet Union, and Putin has started something that could be the end for him, if the Ukrainians continue to resist. Ukraine has found it’s leader and the people are as loyal to him and his leadership, because he does not run from the Russians and no sign of stealing all the country’s money like past leaders that owed too much to Putin and were afraid to stand up to him. If Zelensky was not the “real deal” they would not be willing to fight and die like they are doing. I am amazed each day as they stand up to the Russian assault and their resolve to fight is even greater. I salute them; God show them love and peace.
the logistic failure is a result of they basically didn’t think that much supplies would be needed,i.e.; they were going for a cakewalk. ukraine gave them pie in the face.
While China is taking notes, we should too. How biden and most of the West handle this tragedy in Ukraine will largely determine its outcome. With the willingness Ukraine was prepared to defend itself coupled with the fact that this was Putin on the other side, I do think we and other free nations should have done more. We can do more.
This senseless war admittedly has brought out my inner hawkishness. Because Russia’s “performance” in this war has been less than stellar, a quick and decisive response early on could have spared Ukraine the devastation we see on the news every day, and put Putin in his place. That also would have informed, but not necessarily halted, Xi and his ambitions. If biden were smart, he’d do what President Trump did and get our manufacturing sector revved up. Make the U.S. strong again so we won’t have to rely on China for so much stuff. Keep the money in this country instead of funding China’s plans. But biden and the dems are blind to these realities.
A perfect storm is brewing, and it can go either way. Oil prices, biden’s weakness, NATO and the free nations, nuclear arms, unrest among the Russian people, China’s intentions…so many variables in the equation. But not doing what is needed to stop the aggression will guarantee more of it in the future. If the U.S. assumes the position of leadership, we have to to sometimes act on the behalf of others. Either declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine or give them the implements to win the war.
We have, what has to be, the most incompetent “president”, “vice president” and congress that this country has EVER had to endure. Since very little is being done to stop the dangerous BS, by Republicans or our “military”, I’m not sure we can survive the next 3 years!!
Regarding the WWII reference, I would say it was Japan that underestimated American spirit, not Nazi Germany.
Once again Robert B. Charles has put forth relatively good information only to lessen its impact with his insistence on trying to do so with dramatic flair rather than good syntax. I don’t know why AMAC continues to publish his work without first proofreading and editing it.