AMAC EXCLUSIVE
Although general election polling in Maine has remained relatively scarce in comparison to swing states in the Midwest and across the Sun Belt, some indicators suggest Biden has reason for concern there. But Maine Democrats, confident in Biden’s strength in the state, are nonetheless considering changes to how the state allocates its electoral votes in a bid to ostensibly help Biden this November.
Specifically, Democrats, led by Maine House Minority Leader Maureen Terry, are threatening to change the electoral vote distribution in the state. Currently, Maine allocates two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, and awards one electoral vote to the winner in each of its two U.S. House districts.
The move is in direct response to recent efforts in Nebraska – the only other state that also divides its Electoral College votes – to also move to a winner-take-all system. Though Nebraska has historically been a reliably deep red state, in previous cycles Democrat candidates have captured one of the Cornhusker State’s five electoral votes thanks to the political influence of Omaha, often described as a blue dot in a sea of red, in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
In recent history, Maine has been reliably Democrat, with the liberal party winning statewide there since 1992. Democrats have also won both congressional district votes since 1992, except when Donald Trump carried the state’s more rural 2nd District in 2016 and 2020.
Nevertheless, a Critical Insights poll conducted in October has Joe Biden up only one point statewide, while a February poll conducted by Pan Atlantic has Biden trailing Donald Trump 32 percent to 38 percent—a shocking margin considering that Biden carried the state by nearly nine points in 2020.
The same polls show Trump leading in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District by 14 and 20 points, respectively— signaling deep trouble for the Biden camp after Trump carried the district by just 7.7 points in 2020.
Moreover, Biden is leading in Maine’s 1st Congressional District, bolstered by the liberal stronghold of Portland, by only 8 to 16 points, which are strikingly low numbers compared to his nearly 23-point victory in 2020.
These major polling shifts raise two crucial—and potentially election-defining—questions. First, by how large of a margin can Biden lose Maine’s 2nd Congressional District and still win the statewide vote? Second, how close does Trump need it to be in the 1st Congressional District to have a shot at winning statewide?
Though some pundits may dismiss the notion that Maine’s two at-large electoral votes (and potentially all four if Terry has her way) could be in serious contention in November—particularly given the lack of recent polling in the state—a close race in Maine is not without historical precedent.
In 2016, for instance, Hillary Clinton edged out Donald Trump in the statewide vote by a mere 2.9 points. And given that the two most recent polls conducted in the Pine Tree State have Biden polling between 32 and 36 percent and trailing Trump by as much as six points, it is not far-fetched to predict that Trump could eke out a statewide victory.
Of course, the two electoral votes granted by Maine’s statewide vote may not seem significant or otherwise worth pining over at first glance. But in one very possible electoral scenario, they could determine the outcome of the election at large.
In one hypothetical electoral map, in which Biden carries the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (as well as the one electoral vote granted by Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District) and Trump carries the swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina (in addition to Maine’s 2nd District), the election would be deadlocked at a 268-268 electoral tie and come down to the two electoral points awarded by Maine’s statewide vote.
If polling is correct and Biden does indeed lose Maine’s 2nd Congressional District by 20 points while Trump narrows Biden’s statewide margin in the 1st District, Trump could be poised to carry the statewide vote and win the Electoral College 270-268.
Although other scenarios may be more likely—especially considering Trump’s consistent polling leads in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—Maine presents just one more potential path for Trump to win a second term in the White House this fall. Moreover, it goes to show that every electoral vote matters—and no state can be taken for granted.
It also shows the potential unintended consequences of Maine Democrats’ efforts to change how the state awards electoral votes. While Terry believes the move will hand one more electoral vote to Biden, it could end up handing a crucial vote to Trump.
As campaign season continues to ramp up and the battle for control of the White House escalates over the next six months, much of the media’s attention will rightly be focused on traditional swing states in the Midwest and Sun Belt. But even though Maine fails to elicit the same national attention as bellwethers like Arizona, Georgia, or Michigan, polling data makes clear that it ought not to be overlooked.
Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.
The problem with Maine has always been the idiot Democrats from MA & RI who have moved there, because of the Kitschy residences along the southeast coast and on the lakes in the Western Mountains. They proceeded to bring their insane politics with them to a pristine, gorgeous state which is large enough to hold all the New England states within its borders. Maine is a state which could balkanize, the western counties against the Democratic Dominated southeastern counties. Having spent a good deal of time in Maine, first as a camper in Naples, then as a Naval Aviator at Brunswick Naval Air Station, then, most recently, as a float plane pilot, I hate to see the Democrats bring their death-dealing politics, anti-American attitudes and unconstitutional behavior to such a beautiful place.
Hey, if it looks like Biden is getting too far behind and even changing voting laws doesn’t work, maybe Democrats can go talk to China about releasing another virus right on time to cancel November elections altogether… you know, “in the name of public safety”.
Obviously, the Democrats will continue to use all tricks in the book to undermine the election process as to remain in control and power in our nation. If states turn to this system, the electoral college will be compromised enough where there will be no protection against political entities who are worthless in their obtaining office. This just another step above the previous election cheating.
I have many friends and even family members who generally lean to the left, but most of them are good and decent people and as such would never vote for Biden if they really knew and understood, what he and his puppeteers have done and continue to do to our country.
Most don’t watch Fox News and therefore they don’t have a clue of the evil that the Biden crime family and their Marxist allies are perpetrating on the American people.
Also, I find it very disheartening that some normally conservative voters would either not vote at all, or worse, would vote for Biden, simply because they don’t like Trump’s personality. I believe that is what caused Trump to lose the last election.
A vote for biden is a vote against the USA!
I’d assume that Mainers like to have warm homes. If so, how could they vote for Slow Joe who wants to shut down all oil production? Can you heat a home in Maine with a windmill or solar panel?
Very provocative article. A call to action for voters. But will it matter? Has the left’s dominance of media, judiciary, and education finally reached the tipping point? I do not share the author’s view that the swing states are firmly red. My optimism is tarnished by the democrat’s propensity to break election law without consequence. Case in point, PA’s illegal actions just prior to the ’20 election. We must also consider the actions hinted at by other states. Admit it folks, if the democrats can’t win your hearts and minds at the ballot box then they’ll find a way to win inside the ballot box. Furthermore, will the illegal importation of unauthorized voters eventually drain red from the electoral palette? After all, that IS the reason they were brought here on your dime. Despite Biden’s unamerican actions, the race is far closer than it should be. And that perceived closeness provides the very cover democrats need to once again… get away with it.
Life is tough in Maine. It always has been, and it takes a huge commitment of time and energy to make it. Liberals learned this lesson decades ago, and started funding advocates to represent liberal thinking. The secret sauce was, and is, the fact that conservative thinkers were busy earning a living and they took their eye off the ball. Lately, things are spiraling totally out of control. This is just one more example.
A woman who owns a business in a Texas town said she will vote NOT by political designation but will vote for the person who articulates what they stand for, says, provides, and follows their convictions for a vote of policy, fairness, USA citizens, and other criteria.
Citizens must add a provision to remove the person before the end of their term if they do not do what they say. And criteria driven citizen oversight committee representing all voters and who can have face-to-face and serious consideration discussions with the elected (for all people) conversations
GOOD idea: dump the political party, say, “Not you until you provide verbal and written conviction, and justification on the policy you will support. And, your beliefs, values, examples of what you say is how you have lived, and philosophy of honor, values, and beliefs as foundational principles.
Why not? They represent Americans, so act like it. You pay the costs, and they with no penalty and wordsmitt=hing over spend continually.
The same promises must apply to the President and Vice President.
Enough with the employment for life, millionaires from isolation with those they represent, term limits, and other limited perks when the term of office ends.
GOP has little control over Maine, but they can make Nebraska winner-take-all if they can just get it together. They have not been impressive. Ditto for all the polling orgs. Polling a city like Omaha should be much cheaper than polling a whole state, right?
I have little confidence in those leads in MI, WI and PA. Three Dem governors, Zuckbucks and all those ballot drop boxes in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee will make it tough for Trump. I plan to drive up there to knock on doors in Omaha suburbs.
I always thought Maine was one of the crown jewel destination locations; they are Woke compromised?? What a disgrace, especially now siding with a Disgraced, Treasonous, Leader of the Free world.Wow, so Maine along with All of the New England states were actually Woke all along prior to Brokedown Joe. I just don’t get it; why would a God ordained country allow a destructive political party to even exist in this country? BS we would be a Commy country; two or more Patriotic parties building to Maximize the Greatness. Sounds strange but why not? Does Freedom End here or Thrive?
You can analyze all the polling and the odds of the electoral college. As long as the ultra liberals keep supporting ole Joe and the Hamas, nothing will change. And prominent democrats like Donna Brazile go around college campuses that Trump and the republicans are taking democracy away. Nothing will change. The people have to wake up or nothing will change. It is not Trump and supporters that have made America into a dictatorship. Ole Joe with the elites like Soros, Gates, Rockefeller, Pritzker etc etc who are supporting the Hamas supporters on the campuses of the Ivy League schools. Nothing will change. Not only they want to eliminate Trump from running for president but anyone that dares to run against them. Robert F Kennedy Jr is hounded daily to keep him from campaigning, running ads are pulled, or campaign in person. Hecklers are sent to interrupt him wherever he speaks. And the elites and the courts back ole Joe up. Trump again was told to shut up. But the prosecutor and jurors and witnesses can go on any media and tell their story. What chance does an American citizen who has been arrested for giving his opinion, have to get a fair trial. Even saying your opinion against the Hamas protesters gets you arrested. If you burn the American flag and spray graffiti on the campus buildings or break in and destroy everything inside. Nothing happens. What happens, however, they make demands for food and water and twist ties and knee pads. What for? They decided to demonstrate, they should have planned better and bring their own food and water and whatever else they need. Nobody ordered them to demonstrate and occupy the campus except Hamas and Soros and the gang. Those are the ones that have taken democracy away miss Donna Brazile. Plus we are a republic with a constitution where the rights of the people are written. Not by ole Joe Obiden. People in Maine and elsewhere would be well served if they would research what the dems have been and are doing to America. And Maine can keep their 2 electoral votes. Trump will win by a landslide, ole Joe’s dementia will get worse and everyone will see he is not capable of serving our nation or be a leader of the free world. Karma has a way to come up at the most unexpected times.
That shows his true mental capacity is gone.
If Maine is in play (or NH or VA or MN), then the Biden campaign is in deeper trouble than we imagined.
Put democrats in again and all the death to America chanters can stop chanting
I sure hope these polls are accurate, but have my doubts. Gov. Mills just signed a bill passed by Democratic-controlled legislature to switch to National Popular Vote. Maine was first state to use Ranked Choice Voting for US Congressional seat, which cost the Republicans the CD 2 seat. CD 1 is easily 60+40 blue and Rep.Pingree has won by 20 points the last 5 elections. The state passed abortion on demand and supports transgender treatments for all. On top of that, we have the 2nd highest state and local tax burden. Just sayin’…
Maine is not in play. Executive order 14019 gave every federal agencies the ability to register democrat voters with tax payer dollars. Combine this EO, with 11M illegals, and mail in ballots in the swing states and you have a second Biden term. The governors of WI, MI, and PA have all vetoed election integrity legislation numerous times because they know Biden can’t win if they are signed into law. GA and NC have tightened the voting process with voter ID and other signature verification legislation. Trump cannot win without taking one of the rust belt states and NC, GA, AZ, and NV. The ballot harvesters are going to be working over time to manufacture ballots just like they did in 2020.