As the dust settles from the violence and destruction of Act One of the current military engagement in Iran, a clear assessment of this drama in three acts now appears as the curtain rises on Act Two.
Like any epic event, this realpolitik theater has a large cast of good guys and bad guys, most of whom make their initial appearance as the play opens. Usually in these matters, there are many more villains than heroes. In Act Two, a few more will appear.
Act One featured a protracted series of air strikes by the U.S. and Israeli military forces. These very successful operations decimated the political, scientific, and military leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran, including its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regime’s top nuclear scientists. Iran, with its air force and navy so quickly crippled, responded primarily with missiles and drones.
Initially, these attacks were against targets in Israel and regional U.S. bases, but eventually they expanded to neutral neighbors in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar.
The jihadist regime suffered devastating losses in its nuclear development sites, ports, air bases, weapons factories, military installations, and government buildings and infrastructure from the U.S. and Israel. But it continues to brutally suppress widespread local civilian protest demonstrations by arresting, torturing, imprisoning, and murdering tens of thousands of its own citizens.
Faced with economic sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, Iran saw shortages of food, water, and military supplies, along with acute devaluation of its currency. It also suffered decreasing support from Russia, China, North Korea, and the armed proxies the regime had funded in Gaza (Hamas), Yemen (Houthis), Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria (Assad regime), and militias in Iraq.
Realizing that complete defeat of the Iranian regime could not occur by air strikes alone, the U.S. took steps to confiscate Iranian assets abroad, and to block most of Iran’s critical income from the sale of its oil and gas.
Iran responded by attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz through which a significant portion of global oil and gas passes. The U.S. then closed the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian shipping, effectively shutting off the regime’s primary source of income.
At this point, U.S. President Donald Trump, facing imminent midterm elections in November and growing U.S. voter impatience with the war, decided to seek a ceasefire with Iran. He negotiated a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the regime that would allow for the negotiation of U.S. demands over the course of 60 days.
The demands of each side are completely different, and there is a profound doubt that anything the Iranian regime agrees to would be honored. This skepticism is intensified by the lack of any single figure or group now in control of Iran. The IRGC and the political leaders appear to be at odds with each other and routinely assert they are not bound by any decision of the other in negotiations.
Already, the IRGC has broken its agreement to halt hostilities by attacking a ship in the Persian Gulf. The ceasefire is further complicated by the fact that Israel had no part in the MOU and understandably refuses to leave southern Lebanon as demanded by the IRGC. Its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, also played no part in the ceasefire agreement, and says it will continue to attack Israel.
Act Two of this conflict, now underway, will transform a one-sided air war in Iran that has critically weakened its totalitarian regime and set the scene for the third and final act in which the Islamic theocracy is replaced by a new democratic government elected by all the citizens of Iran.
Act Three of the war will begin when the impact of the air war will be assessed to have so weakened the IRGC that the now-organized Iranian resistance led by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi signals those who have suffered most under the regime, the Iranian people, to rise up and finish the complete destruction of the regime.
A number of conditions will be necessary for this “final battle” to take place, including the near collapse of the IRGC command and control, widespread desertions and instances of lower-level personnel in the IRGC and the Iranian army either switching sides or refusing to obey IRGC orders, and the arming of the civilian population. At that point, a genuine revolution can take place and succeed under the resistance led by the Crown Prince.
No large-scale boots-on-the-ground deployment of U.S. or Israeli troops will be needed. Only the Iranians themselves can finish the job.
Many of the necessary conditions for the “final battle” are already in place. Act Two is set to complete them.
The unanswered questions are not about what will happen, but when the regime will fall.
Herald Boas is an AMAC Newsline contributor.
Since WW2 there has been no effort to decisively win any conflict. The politicians want to negotiate everything instead of taking a stand.
Speculation at the most. The Bible clearly states that Iran will be a part of the Islamic coalition that attacks Israel in the Gog-Magog war in the Book of Ezekiel in the time of the End. Regimes may change but the religion remains.
The radical mullahs and IRGC need to be bombed into oblivion and sent to the place where Satan lives. The sooner the better! I believe the rank and file Iranians hate the regime as much as we do and should avoid civilian casualties. Then they could set up a democratic form of government and incinerate this oppressive theocracies.
Why President Trump failed to take out Iran”s Oil Refinery”s and end the war is beyond me , unless some how China is involved , i know Iran supplies China”s Oil.
A very interesting analysis and one, I hope, comes true. From your lips to God’s ears.
If the Iranian populous wants a country free from the so called religious”cult”in charge,they are going to step up and fight,and fight,and continue to fight to topple the criminals that are ruining that country.Outside help can’t do it alone,help has to also come from the inside.
I would like to see the IRGC targeted by the CIA! Terminate with extreme prejudice!
I don’t think we should have stopped the attacks in the first place. We should have bombed all the bridges, take out some of the power grid and keep attacking the military
complex and ignore their pleas for talks until their on their knees begging. That’s the only
thing these Iranian fanatics understand. They will delay and talk until hell freezes over or
the democrats are in charge.
The MOU removes sanctions and gives Iran $300B. That is nearly $1,000 from every American citizen’s pocket. That is outrageous! Why give them a bunch of money so they can rebuilt stronger than before? I think we should just withdraw, don’t give them anything, and forget about a negotiation because the MOU benefits Iran, not the USA. If we do want a MOU it should be very specific about the nuclear, but still I don’t understand why we need to give them so much money. Maybe remove sanctions but $300B is too much.
I don’t understand what Stage 2 is. Please be clearer.
The west is fighting a geopolitical war. The Iranian regime is fighting a ideological war. For some reason those in the Trump administration do not understand this asymmetric ideologically driven warfare. Unless the western powers are willing to completely eliminate the apocalyptic branch of Islam that is running the country, the west will never gain the upper hand….ever. Biblically, Iran is present as a later day nation in the Bible, so there’s that as well.
I hope this guy is correct. But, I have my doubts. We will see what happens after the election. Then, time will be on Trump’s side.
Welp. I voted for DJT 3 times. First time, he had NO CLUE how the elected folks in DC conducting bidness, and they rode him like he was a rented mule. Then, the denizens of our Capitol City run him outta town and for 4 years treated him like he had stole their lunch money!
But he came back. He had learned a few things by then, and didn’t fall for everything they had, like the first time! But now look. He made all the right noises, showed us he had learned a lesson or two, and was reelected! Then he squared off against Iran. The ‘realest’ enemy ‘Murica had seen since 1941.
And guess what happint? Iran did him the same way they did Obama and ol’ Joe. Lied repeatedly. Promised their buns off. Made “deals” and “promises” and shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Down it before, and it STILL works. By the way, how can all that water BELONG to IRAN? Anyway, it appears Iran has Trump where they want him. Can’t make a deal, won’t make a deal, and here we sit. SS. DD. (Which for all the reg’lar folks out there, that stands for ‘Same Sh*t. Different Day’.)
I was expecting something different this time.