ANALYSIS: Wisconsin Supreme Court Race Heading for Close Finish

Brad Schimel and Susan Crawford are facing off in the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history on April 1 as Wisconsin voters will select one of the two to fill a ten-year term on the state supreme court. Both Republicans and Democrats are looking to the Badger State for clues on where they stand with voters following last year’s general election, and the contest will decide the ideological balance of the court in what is becoming a pivotal swing state.

Crawford, a Dane County Circuit Court judge since 2018, is endorsed by all four liberal justices on the court, including the retiring Justice Ann Walsh Bradley. Schimel, a Waukesha County Circuit Court judge since 2019, previously served as Wisconsin Attorney General from 2015 to 2019 as a Republican. He has received significant campaign support from Elon Musk and an endorsement from President Donald Trump.

Polling shows Crawford with a healthy but not insurmountable lead with just days to go. A survey conducted by Building America’s Future, a nonprofit funded by Elon Musk, found Crawford with a five-point advantage, 48 percent to 43 percent.

While Schimel undoubtedly heads into Election Day as a slight underdog, a press release from Building America’s Future paints a path to victory. “Crawford’s lead on the ballot comes from her strong support with base Democrats and Schimel’s inability to solidify his support with Trump voters,” a Building America’s Future press release said. “Crawford is pulling 91 percent of those who voted for Harris in 2024, while Schimel is winning just 86 percent of Trump voters. Closing the enthusiasm gap with the base will be critical for Schimel down the stretch.” 

“When we adjust our sample to reflect November 2024 turnout, Schimel is within one point of Crawford (46-45) — a statistical tie,” the press release continued. “The Schimel campaign is best positioned to remind the 14 percent of Trump voters who aren’t currently voting for him that he is a strong conservative and Trump ally. It is our hope that they do so aggressively in the remaining days.”

This past Tuesday, one week out from the election, 48 percent more early ballots had been cast compared with the same point two years ago, another apparently positive sign for Democrats. But President Trump and Republican leaders have strongly encouraged Republicans in the state to vote early, perhaps indicating that the mail-in and in-person early votes could be more evenly split or even favor Schimel.

“There is a very important election for state Supreme Court on April 1st, and early voting is now underway. Brad Schimel is running against radical liberal Susan Crawford, who has repeatedly given child molesters, rapists, women beaters, and domestic abusers ‘light sentences,’” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “All voters who believe in common sense should GET OUT TO VOTE EARLY for Brad Schimel.”

The court currently has a 4-3 liberal majority thanks to Judge Janet Protasiewicz’s defeat of conservative Justice Daniel Kelly in 2023. That election handed liberals control of the bench for the first time in 15 years, but conservatives now have the opportunity to flip it back.

After winning the majority two years ago, the liberal justices immediately moved to consolidate power by rewriting the court’s internal rules. The new liberal majority stripped Chief Justice Annette Ziegler, a conservative, of key administrative duties, effectively sidelining her influence. They then abolished a committee of justices that had historically overseen court operations, giving themselves unchecked authority over court procedures. These changes were made behind closed doors with no transparency, prompting Justice Ziegler to call it an “illegal coup.”

The liberal justices also moved quickly to take up cases that could benefit Democrats politically, including striking down Republican-drawn legislative maps and reinstating unmonitored ballot drop boxes. The court’s actions have reinforced fears that the new majority is using judicial power to advance a left-wing political agenda rather than uphold the rule of law.

Moreover, a number of other cases on critical issues such as redistricting and abortion could soon end up before the court, adding more urgency to next week’s election.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has openly suggested that a Crawford victory could pave the way for the court to redraw Wisconsin’s U.S. House map, potentially creating more Democrat-friendly districts in the state. In 2024, the state sent six Republicans and two Democrats to the House. According to Wisconsin Public Radio, Crawford’s campaign also called the election a “chance to put two more House seats in play for 2026” in a January donor call, inviting accusations that Crawford had prejudged potential redistricting cases.

Total campaign contributions have exceeded $81 million, another reflection of how much both parties have invested in the race. Two years ago, when the ideological balance of the court was also at stake, campaign expenditures totaled “only” $55 million – still more than many U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.

Continuing his pattern of political activism from 2024, Elon Musk has been heavily involved in the race, with groups linked to the Tesla CEO spending $17 million backing Schimel. Those donations have fueled accusations from Democrats that Republicans are attempting to “buy” the seat with out of state cash.

But while Crawford’s largest donor is the Wisconsin Democratic Party, almost 85 percent of the party’s donations have come from out-of-state contributors, with 82 percent of that money funneled from liberal elites, according to Scott Manley, executive vice president of government relations for Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce. Those heavy-hitting liberal elite donors include names such as George Soros, JB Pritzker, and Reid Hoffman, each contributing millions to the campaign.

Ultimately, this election isn’t just about a single seat—it’s a snapshot of the broader political landscape, and a sign of how intense battles over judicial power are becoming a central feature of America’s political future. Keep an eye on the results, as the ripple effects could extend far beyond Wisconsin.

Kamden Mulder is a senior at Hillsdale College pursuing a degree in American Studies and Journalism. You can follow her on X @kamdenmulder_.