A great many actors had a hand in the fall of Syria’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that led the offensive; Turkey, which nurtured and supported HTS; the myriad Syrian groups and people who gave a hated tyrant a final push. But Assad’s fall was also the work of a dead man, Yahya Sinwar.
When Sinwar ordered Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023, he meant to revolutionize the Middle East. Today, the region is being remade, just not as Sinwar intended: An astonishingly successful Israeli offensive has left Hamas and the rest of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” in ruins, and has now claimed Assad as its latest victim.
The Hamas fighters who streamed into Israel on Oct. 7 were after more than an orgy of rape, kidnapping and murder. They also sought to shatter Israel’s security and start a multi-front war that would destroy the Jewish state.
For a time, it seemed to be working. Israel was sucked into a grinding, globally unpopular war in Gaza. Its northern territory was depopulated because of attacks by Lebanese Hezbollah. The Houthis of Yemen bankrupted the Israeli port of Eilat through attacks on Red Sea shipping. Iran fired missiles and drones at Israeli cities.
This was all seen, by many Israelis, as an existential challenge. But by revealing Israeli weaknesses, Sinwar ended up unleashing Israeli strengths.
Fourteen months on, Hamas has been devastated and its leaders killed, including Sinwar. Hezbollah has been badly bloodied — and forced to accept a cease-fire — by exploding pagers, airstrikes and an Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon. Iranian missiles didn’t cause much damage to Israel, but the Israeli response shredded Iran’s air defenses and deeply embarrassed the regime. Now Syria, a keystone of Iran’s regional strategy, has fallen as the indirect result of Israeli blows.
For years, support from Iran, Hezbollah and Russia sustained Assad. But Russia has been drained and distracted by war in Ukraine. Iran and Hezbollah have taken a drubbing from Israel. That opened the door for HTS to launch its decisive assault against the regime, which became another unintended casualty of Sinwar’s genocidal dream.
The result is a true revolution in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Syria was Iran’s conduit to Hezbollah and its oldest ally in the Middle East. Assad’s fall deprives Tehran of strategic depth and reach; it severely complicates the task of rebuilding a proxy network that has been badly mauled.
Assad’s departure is also a humiliation for Russia, which had claimed the intervention that saved Assad in 2015 as a great victory over the West. By imperiling Russian bases on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, it threatens Moscow’s ability to project power into Africa, as well.
This is why Israel is such a vital ally for the US: Because its victories are critical defeats for America’s enemies. And this Middle Eastern revolution may not be over yet.
Israel and the US have a chance to further squeeze Iran in the coming months. Tehran has lost its best anti-aircraft systems and the strategic insurance policy Hezbollah and other proxies were meant to provide. Now it faces an incoming US president, Donald Trump, likely to dial up the economic coercion — through sanctions meant to make Iran reverse its nuclear program, or perhaps cause the implosion of the regime. Tehran could even face a strike on its nuclear facilities, if Israeli leaders decide this is the moment to press the advantage.
That’s not to say the Middle East is entering a bright new era of peace. The collapse of Assad’s regime could cause a revival of the Islamic State, the emergence of a jihadist regime in Damascus, or a descent into chaos that affects the entire region.
The fate of Assad’s remaining chemical weapons is uncertain, which is why the Israeli air force is hunting them right now. US-Turkey relations could get very tense, if the Turks seize the opportunity to attack Syrian Kurdish groups loosely allied to Washington. And although Iran is in parlous position, it still has cards to play.
The Houthis could intensify their assault on freedom of the seas if they get anti-ship cruise missiles from Moscow. Iran could tighten its grip on Iraq through the Shiite militias that give it sway there. Or perhaps an Iran that feels cornered will make a dash for nuclear weapons, confronting the new American administration with a choice between acquiescing and starting the big Middle Eastern war Trump has pledged to avoid.
But for now, the regional balance of forces is more favorable to the US, Israel and their allies than at any time in a generation. Sinwar is likely to be remembered as the author of a murderous surprise attack that soon boomeranged in epically counterproductive ways. That’s not the legacy Sinwar sought on Oct. 7, 2023. But it’s one he richly deserves.
Reprinted with permission from AEI by Hal Brands.
The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of AMAC or AMAC Action.
Assad was dependent on military support from both Iran and Russia for years in order to maintain power and control of Syria. On his own, Assad had limited options to control and subjugate his people. Russia got ports and airfields in Syria from which to project power in the Middle East and Iran got staging areas and supply depots for its proxy fighters.
Russia’s attention has been focused clearly locked on Ukraine for years now and Iran’s proxies all being systematically decimated by Israel after October 7th. Assad has been basically left to fend for himself. Weakness invites aggression and Assad’s enemies within Syria all sensed Assad was vulnerable. So, they mounted a unified attack against their substantially weakened opposition and within the space of a few months of targeted fighting managed to depose the dictator whose family has ruled Syria for decades.
Unfortunately for the people of Syria that doesn’t mean they are now free to live their lives as they wish. All that has happened is one repressive regime has now been replaced by another repressive regime. The new one being Islamic Fundamentalists similar to the Taliban in many aspects, so little in real terms will change for the people of Syria.
Syria is of no strategic importance to the United States, so we should NOT be stupid enough to start pouring billions upon billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars into Syria with the naive notion that the new Islamic thugs running the country want to adopt western values. Israel is more than capable of taking care of themselves and will no doubt act on their own if the new Islamic rulers of Syria start making threats. We should have learned at least that much after Iraq and Afghanistan one would hope. Yet I’m sure the neocons and Harvard academics will all be pushing for massive U.S. involvement in Syria by the end of the week. They can’t help themselves. That doesn’t mean we should oblige.
Islam is not a religion of peace . It is stuck in 8th. century,is a central point of Moslem life. They live in the 21st century technologically but culturally are stuck in 8th. Religion rules every aspect of life, it is not compatible with the nonmoslem world, it does not want to be. Unless there is an adaptation to the rest of the world and acceptance of non Moslems as equals there will not be a true live and let live coexistence. Only a temporary ceasefire.The rest of the world is a coward for caving in and enabling them ,must not upset them, you know how volatile they are. Hopefully we’ll see a period of ceasefire now.
If Bibi had gone along with Senile Joe, Hamas would have been able to prop up Assad. By continuing to exterminate Hamas vermin, Bibi took away a good deal of support for Assad. I hope Senile Joe doesn’t start “helping” one branch of these fighters and then find out they are as bad or worse than Assad..
Any news of weakening the axis of evil ( Russia & Iran) strength in the middle east is good news.
With a Trump win the failures of Biden and company loom larger than ever. Let’s hope Iran will be crushed, defunded and Iranians will have the chance to be free, so The Mullahs will not be able to continue their destructive ways, let’s hope some good will come of what is going on in Syria, and maybe we will one day be able to say thank you to Trump and Netanyahu for good things.
Will Nuclear war be outcome??
Can IDF seize Assad army gear for IDF Use
One dictator falls and two stand up. The Middle East has been a powder keg since 1948. All the Arab nations know, is war. But I think Trump has still the upper hand to achieve peace. As long as the dems stay out of the White House. Appeasement has never worked. Peace through strength is the answer. Reagan saw that as well as Gorbachev. The Arab countries don’t know anything else than war. It’s their culture
If you are not a friend of Israel you are not a friend of God’s. If you are not a friend of God’s, you are screwed. One by one these non-friends if God are repeating the benefits of hating Him and what He stands for.
What cracks me up is the Democrats’ continuous accusations that Trump and the Republicans were in bed with Russia and China yet when this story about Assad broke, the top Democrat Obama wanted us to defend Assad and Syria. It was Obama, Biden and Clinton that did a lot of business with Russia even giving Russia weapons grade Uranium. Then these last 4 years Obama, Biden and Harris did business with China behind lock doors. The Democrats are Corrupt and Evil liars, and they would have totally changed us into a Communist-Socialist state with 4 more years.
We hope and pray that the rebels who took over Syria are more into cooperation and peace with the world. May God bless their leaders to do God’s WILL and not their own flawed will for the sake of World Peace and all human survival. .
Sans facts this reporter poses a come lately article. Assad was in power nearly 20 years. In today’s political environment 20 years is a lifetime. That was 20+ years the USA and allies had to contend with Syria. I would guess Putin feels it was a worthwile endeavor.
And how about our own politicians cuddling up to Assad. Did Pelosi and Kerry make a ‘bad bet’ when they met with Assad back in the early century in opposition to GW Bush? It is quite hipocritical of the Left and RINOs in Congress to bring up Gabbard meeting with Assad in an attempt to block her appointement to Intelligence position. Trump was right to point out talking to leaders of all bent.
Anything affiliated with the markless liberal Democrats is inherently a Bad Bet
Like Jenga: take out the wrong piece, it all comes down. Hopefully, the void left by Assad will be a democratically-elected representative government and not another Tehran.
Now, pinpoint Putin.
Bashir had to abandon his car collection. Israel is displaying its strength for all to see and is destroying all the Syrian military equipment it can. Since there is no recognized Syrian government, nobody can complain.
So, a tirant has been replaced by terrorists, right?
WHAT??! You mean Russia, Iran and Hamas… the “3 Stooges of the Asian Continent”… made an asinine assumption about Israel’s strategic capabilities that DIDN’T PAN OUT??!!
Well, “SHIVER ME TIMBERS!!!”
Russia, India and HAMAS made a bad bet? The United States via its intel agencies just helped overthrow a London educated Opthamologist whose wife is dying of cancer and promoted literally members of ISIS to do so.
Remember 9/11?? There was a time when we were in the mood for anything other than aligning ourselves with them. Whats next? Promoting Israel in a new tactic of beheading Palestinian children? Doing so ourselves?
God bless what America once might have been.