This article was first published on Nov 8, 2023.
What is a swing state and what will be the swing states in 2024? Generally speaking a swing state is a term used to describe one that is rather evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans and/or the ones experts believe could “go either way” (i.e. swing) in presidential elections. Terms like battleground states, toss-up states, and purple states essentially refer to the same concept.
Swing states are not always the same in each presidential election because demographics change, and people migrate elsewhere in the country. Who the candidates are and/or the positions they take on issues can also dictate the states that will be the most competitive in a given election cycle.
It is essentially the winner-take-all system used by 48 states that heightens the importance of swing states. The candidate that wins the most popular votes in a state, no matter the margin, is awarded all of that state’s electoral votes. In other words, there are no points, or in this case electors, for second or third place. Getting to 270 electoral votes, which is one half of the 538 total available nationwide plus one, secures a presidential victory.
The implications of this system are twofold. First, third parties cease to play a meaningful role other than as a spoiler. Second, each side, Democrat and Republican, essentially cedes certain states to their opponents. But why do that? Simple. It is unlikely a Republican presidential candidate could win a majority in New York or California. It is a similar situation for a Democrat in Texas and South Carolina. Thus no campaign wants to waste valuable resources in a fruitless effort.
What about 2024? While the old adage, normally applied to investments, of “past performance is no guarantee of future results” can apply to politics, we can still look to recent history in making significant predictions. Consider that in the last four presidential elections that the Democrat candidate won the same 20 states in all four. The Republican candidate also won the same 20 states in all four. There you have it then. There are 10 swing states, where at least once the “other guy” won. They are Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, and Florida.
But not so fast, as we can drill down further than 10 to see where the real competition may lie in 2024. Indiana can be written off as a fluke, or one-off, as Barack Obama won it in 2008 by just 1%, the first Democrat to do so in 44 years and the last. The state is reliably red, and Joe Biden is likely to spend no time campaigning there.
The other nine are truly competitive. The three most competitive states saw a victory for both a Democrat and a Republican exactly twice in the last four elections— Iowa, Ohio, and Florida. It should come as no surprise, then, that headlines in the last few days highlighted coveted key endorsements from Iowa’s governor to Ron DeSantis and Florida’s junior senator to Donald Trump.
In November 2023 polling data from the New York Times-Siena College poll of 3,662 registered voters in six states showed Trump up over Biden by six points in Georgia, five points in both Arizona and Michigan, and four points in Pennsylvania. Only in swing state Wisconsin does Biden hold a two point lead over Trump. Interestingly, Trump lead Biden by 10 points in Nevada, which is not considered a swing state. Joe Biden won all six of these states in 2020.
The release of that poll sent shockwaves in major Democrat circles, prompting David Axelrod, Obama’s former adviser, to publicly state this on November 5, 2023 about Biden remaining on the ticket: “What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”
As we know, Biden did indeed bow out. So, what are the swing states as we enter the final stretch in 2024? A check of the popular website www.270towin.com lists these six states as tossups: Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. If everything else goes blue and red respectively as polls suggest, Harris has 226 electoral votes to Trump’s 235. The two biggest prizes are Pennsylvania and Georgia. If Trump wins both, he’s at 270 and is president. Harris must win at least three of the tossup states to reach 270.
Jeff Szymanski holds a master’s degree in political science and works in political communications for AMAC, a senior benefits organization with 2.2 million members. He previously worked for the Rhode Island state legislature and taught high school social studies for 15 years.
I live in the largest Swing State in the country, California. 95% of our politicians are Democrats and they ALL deserve to “Swing” at the End of a Rope as far as I’m concerned!
That there should be even a slight possibility of democrats getting any votes after 3 years of a disastrous presidency speaks volumes about those who vote
First, forget about Indiana, Ohio, Florida and Iowa being swing states. They will continue to be reliably Red in 2024.
Second, what is going on in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia ? They had been reliably Red for years and now they are swing states.
That leaves the former Blue Wall (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) as additional swing states (as well as Nevada).
Bottom line, concentrate all firepower on North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. That’s where 2024 will be won or lost.
The blue started in California and spread east just like blue traveled from DC into Virginia just like Colorado used to hold Sundance and the blue spread throughout the rest of the state. The blue is like a mold or virus.
unfortunately, AZ is so close to CA, and as a result has become Californicated and now is as corrupt and bereft of a conscience as our neighbor. PRAY FOR US
Anna,that would explain why the DFL have a J***S AS THEIR SYMBOL.JUDGING by the last two DFL presidents the poor old donkey should be replaced by a serpent,preferably one with a poison tongue.
Invite a small group of 18 year olds to register to vote republican. tell them why
Hollywood.votes democratic. That shows just how educated they really are…. and they say it is because it is the party of compassion. ?????
OHIO is NOT a Swing State! We are “Blood RED!
Don’t pay attention or care about these so-called swing states because I have no control over how the others vote. Our government has become so corrupt, between the Communist-Socialist Democrats and the Rhino Republicans that are supporting those Democrats that I believe the days of fair elections are gone and this November will prove it. By right, with the way the Democrats are destroying our country, reality says they shouldn’t win squat and that includes the White House, Senate or Congress yet just like 2019 something like another rigged election or something even more sinister will happen to keep them in. Food for thought and that is remember even the FBI and DOJ admitted that Terror Cells are indeed in our country having crossed over through the open border, yet they aren’t hunting them down and arresting them. Why? I believe that there will be Terror attacks launched all across the country prior to the election so the democrats can call a State of Emergency and cancel the election. I’d bet that Obama knows who they are and where they are and he’s going to be the one to tell them when to launch the attacks. What other reason is keeping the FBI and DOJ from hunting them and arresting them like they should be.
The figures are old and can’t be compared any longer. The fraud division within the Dem party has booted ole Joe out and installed Komrad Kameltoe in the position. They have decided they are the power over all of us. We sheep have to obey and not have any thoughts about voting for a man that has the best interest at heart for America and its citizens. From the bottom up. Only the dems are afraid they will be arrested for the things they have done the past 4 years. They even openly admit it only instead of mentioning the people at the top to be the ones that Trump will arrest they substitute the middle class. Trump is working for the middle class. He did the first time around and he will again. Not tax us to death like kameltoe is planning. She will support Ukraine and Hamas. Support the military industrial complex. In other words the elite. And the middle class is left the privilege to pay for it with their hard earned tax money. The gaslighting convention is over. Take it as a fiction movie and get back to the real world and vote TRUMP/VANCE.
I don’t know who is taking the pulse of Florida, but it solid RED. This state has more sign’s/flags etc., and to date nothing for the farce of democrat’s can be found in several areas that I’ve traveled. Go you Republican’s, and beat the pants of of those Commie’s.
Nobody wants to waste time. But anything can happen. Tell the facts everywhere. No fact is wasted. No speculation, no gossip can beat facts.
How about an update to Harris rather than Biden?
the trouble with democrats will always vote for a democrat, they don’t know any better, which is best for the country.
It has been written that Prez and VP can not be from the same state. That would eliminate Marco Rubio.
Other eligible names: Ted Cruz and Marsh Blackburn.
I am in Michigan , how anyone can vote Democrat after Gretchen Witless , has locked down our state , ruined small business , cut budgets for police , fire & coast guard . We DO NOT HAVE A COAST GUARD station here any longer . When there recently were boating accidents or capsizing on the Saginaw Bay , Tawas was the nearest station . So , citizens had to be called out, Charter Captains to save the drowning people . She lobbied on Fix The Roads , well not to much happening there either . However , small organic farmers have been harassed & the lively hoods left in ruin . Oh , yeah & the big tax breaks for the CHINESE battery plant & the new policy she put thru Congress for EMMINENT DOMAIN , so the Government has the right to take private property .. These are just a few of the great things she has done to OUR State …
I’m a member of the GOP establishment and I feel personally attacked by MAGA.
I’m pro life.
I’m pro gun.
I’m anti gay.
Thats 3 out of 3 most important GOP issues. I just don’t like how MAGA behaves and bullies people. Did MAGA forget Reagan’s 11th commandment? The Republican elephant defeats the Democratic donkey. It’s how nature works.