President Trump Can Win Big – in Pending Deal with China

Something big is happening behind the scenes – with China.  In the headlines, China has been put under trade pressure by President Trump, even as that country’s growth rate slows.  China is being called out by the US President for anti-competitive behavior.  The two Presidents – Xi and Trump – have set a March 2 deadline for concluding a comprehensive agreement, to rebalance the trade relationship.

The operative word is “comprehensive.”  There is much more at stake – and President Trump has a chance, behind the scenes, to set things right in a number of collateral areas.  These areas will affect older Americans in important ways, but also the country at large.

Prepare for this:  Even as official Washington obsesses about the “partial shutdown,” which affects exactly one quarter of one percent of the American workforce, the stock market, broader economy, manufacturing and agricultural sectors are going to get a shot in the arm as soon as the China deal is fixed – likely in March. 

This will put pressure on Congress – Democrats and Republicans, especially in 2016 Trump States – to ratify the deal as a treaty, or to endorse if not at treaty rank.  The net effect, will be to reduce worry about the US-China trade war, lift investments, job prospects, wages, employment and pensions. 

When this deal is inked, a major source of uncertainty will be lifted, and a big economic relationship (optimally) rebalanced.  This will represent a “great leap” forward in US-China relations.

That said, other key elements (possible codicils) to this agreement should not be omitted.  Five issues should be referenced in this accord, either as formal commitments or agreed understandings.  President Trump – and his Secretaries of State, Defense, Treasury and Commerce – can then force accountability over the next two – or next six – years.

What are these five big issues with China?

First, overt Communist repression of religious freedom is a major concern, and reportedly getting worse.  The Wall Street Journal recently devoted half a page last week to escalating “foreign criticism of policing, mass detentions and forced-assimilation measures” associated with repression of religious minorities, especially Muslims in Xinjiang region. 

Behind the scenes, China has been pressing members of the U.N. Human Rights Council – a group so ostensibly political the US resigned from it last year – not to examine China’s repression of religious minorities.  The raw fact:  “President Xi Jinping launched a security campaign that U.N. Officials said may have placed as many as one million Uighurs and other Muslims in internment camps.” 

If it can happen to Muslim minorities, it can happen to others – and it is.  Christians are regularly rounded up, imprisoned, reeducated, property taken, barred from worshiping by the Chinese Government. 

Examples of recent Christian repression suggest a Chinese crack down on those of faith, especially Christians.  Thus, last month, Chinese police in Chendu rounded up pastors and congregants of what it considered an “underground” protestant church.  In detail, redible reports state: “The shutdown of a Protestant Church in Chendu epitomizes the Xi Jinping government’s relentless assault on religious freedom in China.”

Accordingly, the Trump White House should press Xi for concrete indications of greater tolerance for basic religious freedom, on merits and tied to conditions – positive or negative – that will flow from future Chinese practices.  Trade is about trade, and also about leverage to prevent bad events from happening.  Americans should be against Chinese imprisonment of those who want only to worship freely.

Second, China is arguably the number one producer of synthetic opioids killing Americans, including fentanyl, which is 50 to 100 times stronger than morphine.  The US Centers for Disease Control reports that overdose deaths rose 54 percent from 2011 to 2016, and continue to rise.  They report that “the synthetic drug fentanyl” is involved in the most US overdoses.

President Trump has been verbally tough on this issue with China – and rightly so.  Last fall, he tweeted:  “It is outrageous that poisonous synthetic heroin fentanyl comes pouring into the US postal system from China. We can and must END THIS NOW!”  He called on the US Senate to pass the “STOP ACT,” which was directed at curbing the opioid crisis – which they did. 

But the inflow of synthetic drugs – especially fentanyl – continues unabated from China.  It is time to insist that they clamp down on the 600 illicit producers in China.  If that Communist country can round up and imprison those of faith for their faith, they can catch criminals producing illicit pharmaceuticals – which kill thousands of Americans annually. 

Third, China’s enforcement of sanctions against North Korea should be reviewed, and – as we watch the enforcement slip and trade creep back up between China and North Korea – we should hold them to account.  If North Korea is to see the value in denuclearization, there must be unity in sanctions enforcement.  Provisions offering some degree of accountability should be integrated into the final accord.

Fourth, China’s full tilt push for hegemony in the South China Sea should be addressed.  While non-military options for rolling back their aggressive behavior are limited, trade is one lever.  The free passage of all international shipping, whether close or far from the artificial islands China assured the world it was not building, then not militarizing – and now stand built and militarized – should still be assured.  The world’s oceans are a global asset; artificial islands do not make them China’s.

Finally, Communist China is a repressor of virtually every human right enshrined in our Bill of Rights – from free speech and press to fair trial and appeals.  We should use this opportunity to reinforce the US and global – indeed the universal – ideal of freedom of the individual against the power of coercive state action.  We can only move the Communist monolith slowly toward individual liberty, but we should not stop trying. 

In the end, President Trump deserves credit for forcing greater parity, mutuality, and trade accountability on a resistant Communist trading partner, but he should widen the conversation to include issues of paramount importance to every American. 

The deal will pop the market and settle the economy, but religious freedom, mounting drug crisis, opportunity to raise pressure on North Korea, throttle back Chinese military ambitions, and stand for values Ronald Reagan once championed in another era all matter.  President Trump can win big – if he aims high.