Flipping Pancakes and Legislatures

Flipping pancakes is fun, flipping state legislatures harder – but worth it, and this is the year. This year, we elect a President, a new US Senate, a US House, and a number of governors, but we also may see blue state legislatures flip red. That could be life-changing for citizens of those states, preserving freedoms, and protecting lives.

Numbers tell an interesting story. Here it is. Republicans control 27 state legislatures, Democrats 21, two even (Michigan and Pennsylvania). Trump continues to rise across the board, in virtually all these states, as Biden slips.

State legislatures are vital. Internally, they decide educational standards, budgets, law enforcement, electoral integrity, economics, and moral direction, while externally they affect regional and national policy, including federal elections.

One state, Maine, allows their legislature to pick the Attorney General and Secretary of State, a power with consequences, like the recent attempt to disenfranchise Maine voters by removing President Trump from the ballot, a decision made by their Secretary of State – reversed, 9 to 0, by the Supreme Court.

State legislatures decide – directly and indirectly – whether laws are passed or blocked, an essential part of making “good things” happen and stopping “bad policies.” State legislatures can be paragons of democracy, acting fairly and accurately reflecting the people’s wishes, or can ignore the people.

That is one reason 2024 is critical, because state legislatures decide much of the future, and many could flip this cycle. Beyond the two tied chambers, 10 are close enough to flip from Democrat to Republican, especially if Biden’s popularity continues to tank, affecting Democrat turnout and preferences.

The 10 most-likely-to-flip state legislatures range from Virginia’s two-seat spread to Illinois’ 38-seat spread, with the national mood hostile to Democrat incumbents.

Nationally, big issues – illegal immigration, drugs, crime, the economy, and a radical culture shift, along with national security – will define this cycle and are likely to tip hard against Democrats, making the future open and hard to predict.

In rank order, most likely to flip to least likely – among state chambers – are Michigan and Pennsylvania (54-54, 101-101), Virginia (parent rights looming large, 51-49), Oregon (anti-drug legalization backlash, 34-25), Delaware  (transparency and police support, 26-15), Nevada (education, economy, crime, 27-14), Minnesota (anger at illegals, drivers licenses for all, pro-abortion bills, 70-64), Maine (disaffection with the radical left, crime/drugs, attacks on lobstermen, economy, and core freedoms, 83-68), Washington (economy, 58-40), New Mexico (life quality, 45-25), Connecticut (economy, 81-53), and Illinois (crime, 78-40).

These 12 state legislatures may or may not flip, but big factors – beyond national disaffection with Democrat policies – are fairly easy to identify, including (1) how persuasive conservatives are on matters of common sense, listening and offering life-affecting facts, (2) how organized, focused and hard-working parties are in seeking the flip, and (3) how committed workers are to not giving up, winning.

Perhaps most surprising: After decades of Democrat dominance of state legislatures, Republicans began reasserting dominance after 2010, and are on track to broaden their dominance. In 1978, Democrats controlled 31 states; by 2016, Republicans controlled 32.

While numbers are in flux, the smart money says more legislatures will flip red in 2024. Flipping pancakes is fun… Flipping state legislatures is harder – but this is the year. It could happen, depending on how hard those in close states work.

Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC.