AMAC Exclusive – By Shane Harris
Earlier this month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released its official list of 31 Republican-held seats and 2 open seats that Democrats will be targeting in their 2024 bid to retake the House. The list, which ranges from purple districts to conservative-leaning districts with Republican incumbents perceived as vulnerable, provides valuable early insight into how Democrat strategists are approaching another hotly contested general election cycle.
Recent elections have seen a narrowing of the House map as suburban realignment and redistricting have made for very competitive battles. In 2020, Republican gains left Democrats with just a 4-seat House majority. Last November, Republican ambitions of a “Red Wave” fell flat and left the GOP with a 4-seat majority of their own.
Early lookaheads at 2024 House races from several top analysts predict another close contest that will be decided by just a few seats either way. This means that where each party chooses to spend its fundraising dollars could go a long way toward deciding overall control of the House.
One of the first things that pops out from the DCCC’s list is the number of New York Republicans. In total, the DCCC lists six of the eleven House Republicans from the Empire State on its target list: Nick LaLota (NY-01), George Santos (NY-03), Anthony D’Esposito (NY-04), Mike Lawler (NY-17), Marc Molinaro (NY-19), and Brandon Williams (NY-22).
Last November, these candidates played a pivotal role in securing the majority for the GOP. Of the 16 total House seats that flipped from Democrat to Republican across the entire country, four were in New York—in other words, the entire GOP margin in the House. This number included perhaps the most satisfying victory of the night for the GOP, DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney’s loss to State Assemblyman Mike Lawler.
Following the election, conventional reasoning held that former Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin’s strong challenge to incumbent Kathy Hochul in the governor’s race helped boost other Republicans down-ballot. For this reason, the DCCC is betting that Democrats can retake the four seats they lost by slim margins in 2022 (districts 3, 4, 17, and 19) and pick up NY-22, which incumbent Brandon Williams won 50.7%-49.2%.
Notably, the DCCC has also tagged Zeldin’s old seat (NY-01) as a top pick-up target. Nick LaLota won the open seat 56%-44% in 2022, indicating that Democrats hope they can swing the Long Island-based district at least six points without Zeldin at the top of the ticket.
But this logic might backfire if former President Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee for president in 2024. Much like Zeldin last year, Trump outperformed expectations in New York in both 2020 and 2016 – primarily by picking up support on Long Island.
The other Democrat-to-Republican flips from 2022 that the DCCC hopes to win back in 2024 are FL-13 (Anna Paulina Luna), CA-13 (John Duarte), IA-03 (Zach Nunn), MI-10 (John James), NJ-07 (Tom Kean Jr.), VA-02 (Jen Kiggans), and WI-03 (Derrick Van Orden).
In three of these races (CA-13, IA-03, and MI-10), the Republican candidate’s margin of victory was less than one percent, giving Democrats reason for hope that they can swing the few votes they need to win back the district.
In NJ-07, VA-02, and WI-03, the Republican margins of victory were 4.6, 4.1, and 4 points, respectively. This provides a good indication that the DCCC roadmap for taking back the House is based on a hope that the national environment will be at least 4-6 points better for Democrats in 2024 than it was in 2022.
That theory holds when applied to the DCCC’s entire list: excluding extremely tight races (where the Republican margin of victory was less than 2 points) the average 2022 margin of victory for the Republican candidates in the 31 seats the DCCC has targeted was 7.3 points.
There are a few outliers on the DCCC’s list who won big in 2022 yet Democrats still hope to take down in 2024. Two are in Florida: Luna, who won Democrat Charlie Crist’s old seat by eight points, and Maria Elvira Salazar, who won by 14.6 points. Again, it seems Democrats are hoping that Republican incumbents in Florida will have a harder time in 2024 than they had in 2022 when Governor Ron DeSantis secured an impressive 20-point victory at the top of the GOP ticket.
But Democrats may run in to the same problem in Florida that they did in New York if Trump is the nominee. The 45th president easily won the Sunshine State in 2020 despite polls showing Biden leading by three points heading into Election Day.
One district on the DCCC’s list that Republicans should keep their eye on is the Colorado 3rd, represented by conservative firebrand Lauren Boebert. Despite her district having a Cook PVI of R+7, making it the most Republican district of any on the list, Boebert won by less than 0.2 percentage points last November – a mere 546 votes – after being targeted by millions of dollars in ads by liberal outside groups. Democrats are sure to double down on their attacks on Boebert in the media and would love nothing more than to install a Democrat in this solidly red seat.
With Election Day 2024 still more than a year and a half away, much can and will change in the national political landscape, and the DCCC will undoubtedly shuffle its list around as campaigns take shape. But if Republicans are going to hold – and hopefully expand – their House majority, knowing which Republicans Democrats are planning to target and, more importantly, how they plan to target them, will be of paramount importance.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_.
Want to see a prime example of democrat tyrants with agenda driven control? Look no further than the state of California with dems in a totally veto proof government that doesn’t need to beg for forgiveness when they screw up. The Constitution is the people’s only recourse to challenge their lawlessness. If ever there was a need to eliminate mob rule, a type of electoral college is needed to rein in this state’s lopsided representation, where higher populated counties easily over shadow the voice or votes in the smaller ones. California has 58 counties and yet only a few are needed to undermine the true will of the people. There is no republic here and the rest of the country better wake up.
“In 2020, Republican gains left Democrats with just a 4-seat House majority. Last November, Republican ambitions of a “Red Wave” fell flat and left the GOP with a 4-seat majority of their own.”
This is a cowardly statement. You are apparently afraid to state the truth, that the election was stolen in a big way. This outlet behaves like other controlled opposition “lite-right” wishy-washy sites.web
Can they win those seats, can We counter
Use same Tactics?
The only way we can get more Republicans in Congress…and in the president’s seat…is to find a way to stop their cheating. We no longer have true elections. The Dems and their unlimited supply of money from Soros and others with never-ending bank accounts along with all the media, tech companies, big business, big tech, entertainment industry, etc. support the Dems. Of all these, the media is the worst since they conrol 99% of the news on TV and in newspapers. Their lying and refusing to hi-light any Democrat-negative news are dangerous.
People should start educating themselves about what goes on, and what is GOING on in this country, because it isn’t all about the “FREEBIES”!
Inflation and the condition of the economy at the time of the election will determine most of all whether or not the Democrats pick up anything.
Oh, and the amount of election fraud the Democrats can get away with.
The 3rd congressional district in Colorado has not had a person in congress that’s any better than Congresswoman Lauren Boebert, but the idiots and the RINO’s will vote against her because they believe the lying News Media told them to.
The GOP better get its butt in gear or I’ll have to give up on the country because I think too many of the “average” citizens are like the dunces in Chicago and have no comprehension that geopolitics is as important as domestic policies.
The demon party is going to campaign on three things, abortion, abortion and abortion. Abortion is a holy sacrament to dems. It will be a miracle for the Rs to hold the house. I wish it weren’t so but as recently as 2010 and 2014 large house majorities resulted from demon party acts. Those days are gone. A big factor was the millennials coming of age and starting to pay attention and acting out the indoctrination they received in school.
The 2024 “election”, thanks to current state election laws, is going to be massively rigged, anyhow. If “R”s win the White House and hold onto the House, I’ll be flabbergasted! It’s all become kabuki theater and the dims need the WH and the House to fulfill their n.w.o. agenda…the “great reset” and agenda 2030. With that said, I DO plan on voting, if for no other reason than it’s our patriotic duty and maybe God will bless us with a miracle.
PS If we get stuck with a CBDC, We the People are toast. That is a hill to die on.
Where is our push for taking more of the left seats? Why aren’t we moving forward taking seats?
As long as Soros is paying for elections and the voting machines are all set by democrats for democrats and voting by mail is allowed and no ID’s required. It doesn’t matter the dems will win. You can’t fight corruption and Satan at the same time. The dems have no soul.
I really wish that political campaigns didn’t feel so much like a war. The words ‘aggressive’, ‘targeting’, ‘attacking’, etc. sound so violent. But we just have to deal with the nasty rhetoric from Democrats!
Another issue for me is the length of campaigns – we seem to be bombarded with campaigns, of one kind or another, constantly along with the constant requests for money as these politicians are always having some kind of deadline or another for some kind of funding!! Maybe this is why many Americans don’t want to pay any attention to the political landscape but the consequences of letting politicians do whatever they want is extremely dangerous!! We can kiss our country goodbye if Democrats maintain any kind of control especially in the federal government!!
If they take any seats it will be by open cheating What promises could they possibly make? Not two chickens in every pot at 3.99 a pound and not two cars in every garage with the push for EV which is out of the reach for many The only thin left is abortion Dominion will be over heating
AND THE ELECTION CHEATING BEGINS BY THE CANCEROUS, ANTI-AMERICAN, LYING, CHEATING, libs
ELECTION CHEATING liberals NEED 2 B KILLED
Spoke to nurses this morning while getting injections in my back We all agreed, it won’t be so called election cheating unless something is set up again, using another pandemic that is man made.. These were hospital nurses in Texas, Hispanic ones, who weren’t using masks for the first time in awhile. They have been disgusted with the on again and off again masks policies with the masks the CDC has put into place. They, too, are disgusted with this administration.
If the Republicans loose the seats then the USA will be closer to communism, if it is not to late now
Dems truly need to go to HELl and stay there!!!!!
Because of all of the dangerous corruption of the Biden Administration against the American people, I absolutely loathe and despise the Biden Administration and its supporters with all of my heart and soul!
I am growing more and more tired of democrats flushing us down the toilet while Republicans stand and holler, ultimately doing nothing. Nothing is changing. Clinton… Obama… Biden… and each time what did the Republicans do??? Conservatives should have had an amazing election like Florida, but no. Differences wide enough that fraud couldn’t have overcome.
The dccc is living in FANTASY WORLD.
Just as Beijing biden picked Chicago a crime ridden city (his criminal buddies) to have the dccc convention there to try and relive their 1968 convention riots.
Why hasn’t the FAKE news been reporting that Beijing biden and family have evaded taxes (they owe $millions in taxes) and the IRS knew it and did nothing?
If Trump is nominated and runs for President the Dem-o-rats, will keep the Senate with a
larger margin and take back the House. Only Trump can make the dems dreams come true.
All to stroke his overblown EGO.
First, we need to do more research and get the message to voters who sympathize with our positions. Then we need to funnel money to competitive districts. We also need to run ads stating what WE are FOR and showing the literally CRAZY views of the entire DIMM party! They are anti-history, anti-science, anti-common sense, and anti-God!
I appreciate the details your research has reveals. It will be hard, but we have to try. There are beltway Republicans who hand out campaign funds who seem to be more interested in keeping things the way they are than doing the clean up we deplorables out here want.
First time on line . Nice articles . To the point concise Good job,
Brings to mind actions by RNC and McConnell last cycle. You have to wonder if the GOP know how to pull oars in same direction. Convinced their best efforts are not for the voters!
Ask your favorite people that question Chill, the militant Dem trannys…
so is the Freedom Caucus
Have no fear. The Republicans have their heads so far up their back sides that they won’t see it coming.
I completely agree with and appreciate AMAC news. Everyone should download this app and read what they want to know. It’s honest and conservative.