Political parties can – rather accidentally – paint themselves into a corner. The Whig Party did that in the 1850s. Sometimes the corner is escapable, sometimes not.
Sometimes it is just one room, one issue – sometimes many. When the corner closes, the party is in trouble. The Democrat party is in trouble.
Here is a shrinking corner into which Democrat leaders are painting themselves. Escape is possible only by a big leap – one that will leave more party members disgusted than convinced. Democrat leaders continue to push “defund the police.” Big mistake.
The problem is simple: “Defund” pushers are mostly rich, white, leftist, urban, and suburban protagonists.
They are a shrinking lot, not followed by minority Democrats they represent.
Increasingly, Democrat leaders are offkey, out of step with constituents. They do not see their failure. They keep painting, bold colors, boisterous, belligerent, indifferent to minorities.
While it breaks the brushstroke, here is the spoiler alert: Minorities are not interested in less secure streets, more crime, lost businesses, sacrificed jobs, racial riots, tomfoolery, hooliganism, fear in the hearts of neighborhoods, concern for their children – and less police.
If you doubt me, think all is well, minorities are all-in for rabble-rousing, riots, and “defund the police,” think again. That is not what polling says. Remember polls must overcome a natural fear that respondents’ privacy will not be honored or respected. Polls these days tell us a lot.
Consider three sources, including the seldom contrite New York Times. Turns out, “minority communities don’t support progressives’ radical views on criminal justice.” The paper is eating crow, which also shows you profits beat ideology. Put differently, capitalism works.
The leading Democrat for mayor of New York is a black former police officer. He is not in favor of defunding. Eric Adams is not only ahead – but well ahead.
He thinks “progressive slogans and polices” threaten minorities, are pushed by “young, white, affluent people.”
Whoa! That is an in-your-face allegation, push-back for the gum-flapping progressives. As a source for what is versus what elites want, he is a good standard-bearer. See, e.g., White Progressives Shocked To Learn Black And Latino Voters Don’t Share Their Radical ‘Defund The Police’ Views.
Next, consider a USA Today poll, which found “fewer than one in five” Americans now support “defund the police.” Only 18 percent support it, only 28 percent of Black Americans and 34 percent of Democrats. This is a sea change, signaling how off-the-mark, tone-deaf Democrat leaders are. See, Fewer than 1 in 5 support ‘defund the police’ movement, USA TODAY/Ipsos Poll finds.
A third source adds credibility. In heavily Democrat districts and states, people are saying “enough.” They favor equal opportunity, rooting out pockets of racism, not defunding police.
Perspective is returning to Americans, but not Democrat leadership.
Thus, while Michigan voters want equality under the law, “three out of four oppose efforts to ‘defund’ police, including more than half of Black voters and strong Democratic voters.” Michigan voters back Black Lives Matter, oppose ‘defunding’ police.
This is not the only corner into which Democrats are painting themselves. While most abortions are administered (four in five) to Black women, many minorities oppose abortion. In some polls, a third of Blacks oppose abortion and two-fifths of Hispanics, but in other polls, large majorities of Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians oppose abortion. To assume that Black and Hispanic churches fold to progressive views is wrong. As the Catholic Church begins to speak up – including references to Biden and Pelosi – watch out. Numbers may swing. See, e.g., Abortion and Women of Color: The Bigger Picture; Latino Millennials: Conservative On Abortion, Wide Support For Contraception; After Debate On Biden’s Abortion Views, Bishops Vote to Rethink Communion Rules; Republicans Think They Can Court Hispanic Votes With Their Position on Abortion, but Data Tells a Different Story.
Likewise, assuming minorities support a larger federal government, more dependence, less interest in opportunities to work, advance, climb the pay ladder, get into management, and prosper – may be wildly out of line with reality, in effect racism by down-looking.
Notably, Trump gained among Black men and women, Hispanic men and women, and Asians.
Why? A lot was the economy. See, e.g., US election 2020: Why Trump gained support among minorities. In addition, many in the Black community appear – by inference – to support Trump’s legal – but not illegal – immigration policies, disfavoring open borders policies pushed by Biden and Democrats. See, e.g., African-Americans Polls.
Democratic leaders listen to themselves, to their white, affluent, liberal – increasingly leftist – supporters, elites that give them lots of money for reelections, share their gated communities, sequestered vacation venues, private schools, and elite, guilt-ridden values.
That is not minority – or majority – America, hard-working America, faith-based America, family-centered America, security-minded America, military, veteran, historically guided, unapologetically patriotic America. And that is why – in 2022 and 2024 – a great wave of comeuppance is building.
It will break across the Democrat Party like a rogue wave.
The second-order question is interesting: What does this misjudgment on everything from defunding police and moral compass to immigration and patriotism mean for the party?
One view would say, just a cyclic disturbance, like 2010 results which changed Congress by Tea Party action, or 2016 putting Trump in office, just a periodic shift.
Smarter money is lining up on another view: Democrats have lost their way, grossly lost bearing, possibly without room for recovery. A ship off course, recovers if the wheelhouse realizes the big mistake. It runs aground if those in charge pay no mind.
Put differently, a good painter watches where he or she is going, pays attention, does not end up in a corner. When the Whig Party ended in the 1850s, the corner was about arrogance – Northern Whigs gave up on the party, joined the anti-slavery Republican Party. History never repeats exactly, but one is put in mind of the past when looking at the present. You never know.