Biden Provoking War?

One thousand days of war in Ukraine, punctuated by Biden green-lighting long-range missiles to penetrate Russia, has changed little. History suggests Russia will never disgorge Crimea, a warm water port for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol. Biden’s action is just reckless.

In 1774, two years before America declared independence from Great Britain, another war was winding down. Russia had beaten the Ottoman Empire. The Crimea officially became part of Russia.

Over the next 170 years, Crimea – specifically Sevastopol, a port at the southwestern tip of the Crimean peninsula – offered Russia access to the Black Sea, and from there the Mediterranean.

Without that port, Russia’s Navy was stuck in northern ports, which froze hard in winter, meaning their ability to defend “the Motherland” was compromised. They jealously guarded Sevastopol.

In the early 1950s, Nikita Khrushchev was angling to succeed Joseph Stalin. Khruschev’s competitor for the First Secretary of the CPSU (Communist Party of the Soviet Union), was Georgii Malenkov. Somewhat surprisingly, in retrospect, Malenkov was favored.

Then came Sevastopol, Russia’s warm water port in Crimea, geographically tied to Ukraine. In 1954, the Crimea was 75 percent Russian people. Khrushchev hatched a plan to outflank Malenkov.

His plan was simple.  Since the Soviet Union controlled Ukraine, he would get Ukrainian support against Malenkov by calling Crimea part of Ukraine. Papered legally, little changed – except Khrushchev won.  Ukraine’s Soviet-dominated leader Crimea, Khrushchev got First Secretary.

Now, wind the clock ahead again. In 1992, a free Russia (Berlin Wall fell in 1989) called Khrushchev a “traitor,” and said the 1954 transfer of Crimea, Russia since 1783, was unconstitutional.

In 1998, mutual interest in peace produced the “Partition Treaty” – splitting the Black Sea Fleet between Russia and Ukraine, adding a “Treaty of Friendship,” money to Ukraine for Russia access.

The treaty – and an addenda out to 2042 – did not sit well with Russia-tilting Crimea. Nor did a hard-pushed agreement between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine. Ukraine’s president balked.

In effect, the Russian constituency in Ukraine wanted Russia to step away from the EU, and recognize closer ties to Russia. Port access for money was a good compromise, but apparently not enough.

Adding insult to injury, Russia pushed Crimeans – and Ukrainian Russians – to oppose EU ties. History is convoluted. Ukraine’s then-Russia-tilting leadership was corrupt, and seen as bought and sold by Russia, triggering general protests across the Ukraine.

What does all this tell you? Even in 2013, Ukraine was a divided – not unified – population, with ethnic Russians closer to Russia, and non-Russians closer to the West. Ukraine’s Russia-tilting leadership was ousted and fled to Russia. Soon afterward, Russia annexed the Crimea, leading – in time – to now.

So, what is the right answer? US and NATO forces attacking Russia, trying to end or resolve centuries of Russo-Ukrainian history? Loss of US lives, further draining of our low inventories?

Given that the US has financed the bulk of the Ukrainian war, and Russia is now supported by China and North Korean troops, the issue of Crimea is the point. Can a new administration get both parties to sit down, shut up, and stop shooting, long enough to get to some lasting peace?

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe this is so ethnically, geographically, and historically fraught – like most civil wars and “irredentist” wars (wars of annexation on belief in historical rights) – that peace talks fail.

Or maybe this is the time for mutual understanding, grudging recognition that Russia and Ukraine share a historic interest in Crimea, Sevastopol, and the Black Sea – perpetual war helps no one.

One way or the other, the idea that US weapons and personnel should be used to help Ukraine attack deep into Russia, somehow making Russia pay for its injustices, is reckless.

Ukraine – a poor, corrupt, economically devastated shell – is not going to beat Russia. NATO – which really means the US – declaring war on Russia is useless, dangerous, and stupid. Nutshell: Biden needs to sit down and be quiet, just let the next administration settle this conflict, not provoke wider war.

Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC. Robert Charles has also just released an uplifting new book, “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024).