Syria Flips – Watch the Horizon

The sudden change of power in Syria, upending 50 years of Assad family rule, is significant for obvious and not-so-obvious reasons. Interrelated, they spell uncertainty. Watch the horizon.

In a nutshell, Syria’s decade-long civil war seemed to have ebbed, with Bashir al Assad still in power despite assaults from ISIS, al Qaida, al Nusra, Kurdish separatists, and his brutal rule.

Chiefly, he stayed in power because Russia gave him ground and air support, blunting efforts by terrorist, revolutionary, religious extremist, and separatist forces to take him out. Assad stayed too because Iran, a state sponsor of Hamas and Hezbollah terror, buttressed him.

Finally, Assad stayed because, even with refugee flows north, Turkey saw value in stopping Kurdish separatists – which Turkey has – from gaining ground in Syria.

Thus, Syria’s stalemate – the world inside Syria – was a sort of Star Wars bar scene, oppression to preserve Assad’s rule, but a cesspool, acrid bad actors, all the uglies that Turkey did not want.

Over the past two years, however, things began to change. In February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine. In October 2023, Iran – via Hamas – attacked Israel. These events undermined Assad.

They changed the force structure in Syria. Russia faced a NATO-supported Ukraine, so it deprioritized Syria, refocusing resources. Iran faced an unexpectedly intense Israeli response.

As Israel extinguished Hamas, pressed Iran, and turned on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which borders Syria, Iran had no bandwidth for Assad. Turkey – a NATO country –also tired of Assad, leaving him naked, ill-equipped to confront an organized, swift attack – blitzkrieg – from within.

Into the void stepped, somewhat predictably, a coalition called HTS. HTS – formally designated a terror organization by the State – had studied the failures of al Qaida, ISIS, al Nusra, the Kurds, and Afghanistan’s Taliban. They planned this, obviously, with care.

A composite of rebel factions that has recently ruled a northwestern sliver of Syria called Idlib, struck Assad when he did not expect it. That said, Idlib is about the size of Alaska, Syria one-fifth America’s size – so how HTS will manage unmanageable, war-torn Syria is unclear.

HTS has attempted to rebrand itself – despite terrorist designation – now declaring no interest in events outside Syria, no intent at power projection, and rather novelly saying they would permit religious freedom in Syria, including for Christians. Words, of course, are cheap.

While this idea resembles the old Syria, where indigenous minorities were allowed to comingle in Damascus, Syria was still a haven for terror groups, dominated by Iran and later Russia.

Notably, to Syria’s northern border is Turkey, the underbelly of Europe. To the southwest lies Lebanon, Israel over the Golan Heights, a buffer zone. Finally, Syria’s eastern border is Iraq.

So, what does this takeover by HTS of Syria mean? Why is it significant for Americans?

On the obvious side, Assad’s brutal rule is over, which reinforces the idea that brutal regimes everywhere, even those that seem forever in control, may yet fall on a moment’s notice.

Second, watching a coalition of former terrorists win, even oddly pledging tolerance, is unsettling. If post-Biden Afghanistan is an example, civil war may restart among terror groups.

Third, the Kurds in northern Syria – who former Trump Secretary of State Jim Mattis thought we should not have abandoned – will push for independence, a Syrian Kurdistan, much like the hopes of Kurdish Iraq. This will upset Turkey, with its many Kurds, which may blunt that push.

Russia and Iran, meantime, become giant losers, Russia with no obvious beachhead in the region, and Iran without a strong Syrian presence now, Hezbollah under intense pressure in Lebanon.

While Russia and Iran could respond with force, put troops in Syria to reassert their power, both are currently sucking air, neither in a position to reclaim Syria or even try.

More broadly, this power flip will give dictatorships and one-party governments pause. If an organized, cohesive, fast-moving coalition of former terrorists can blitz Syria, where next?

Similarly, Western nations – not least the Biden team – should be asking, how did they miss this? With Assad gone, the power vacuum could trigger a new hot war in Syria, raising terror, and refugees.

Lastly, this complicates the Middle East. Israel is stretched thin, even with Hezbollah on the run and Iran on their heels. They rightly have tanks on Syria’s border, warning Iran to stand back.

Russia is reeling, because their messy, ill-fated, costly war in Ukraine, even if it ends with territorial changes, has come at a higher cost than they ever imagined, their Syrian foothold gone. What could follow? Not clear, but clear is this: The Middle East just got more dangerous. The next six weeks could be perilous until Trump finally replaces Biden. Watch the horizon.

Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC. Robert Charles has also just released an uplifting new book, “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024).