AMAC Exclusive – By Ben Solis
In a meeting of senior Russian commanders last Tuesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Russian army had essentially achieved its main objectives for the first stage of their supposed “special military operation” in Ukraine. But the facts on the ground refute that assessment and reflect a much more dire situation than many in Russian leadership are letting on.
Instead, the steady stream of images, videos, news reports, and messages from the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine conflict suggests that the chaos on the ground will not lead to a favorable outcome for Russia.
Dr. Martin van Creveld, a professor emeritus at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, is one of the world’s foremost experts on military history and strategy, and has been watching the conflict closely. He has been studying Russia and its interactions with the West since the Cold War and has intimate knowledge of the Russian military mindset.
Van Creveld believes that, from the very first hours of the Russian invasion, the lack of traditional military education and experience was visible on the Russian side.
Specifically, the Russian army failed to reach Lviv, the primary Ukrainian city in the West, by the time their offensive seemed to stall in the East. And as satellite photos showed smoke billowing from a Russian warship in the port of Berdyansk last week, it was a sign that things were only going from bad to worse for the Russians on the battlefield.
The renewed focus of the Russian army on artillery bombardments in the face of staunch Ukrainian resistance also suggested that things aren’t going to plan for Putin. As Dr. van, Creveld explains, “cannonry has been the Russian army’s specialty since the middle of the 17th century.” However, in this case, such bombardments have failed to bring to heel Ukraine’s largest cities, even if the strategy has worked more or less effectively in Kherson and Mariupol. As the cities are reduced to rubble, Russian forces have been drawn into brutal street-by-street fighting that requires huge amounts of manpower and resources to wage, slowly wearing down the Russian will to fight.
Some commentators have suggested that in light of Russian struggles, Putin may turn to nuclear weapons, but Professor van Creveld rejects this view.
As he explains, the use of nuclear weapons would do little in the way of helping Putin achieve his ultimate goal, which is to restore Russia as a great power on the world stage. After all, nuclear weapons did little to arrest Britain and France’s decline into second-tier powers, and North Korea’s continued nuclear provocations have only served to isolate the dictatorship even further from the global economy.
In his previous work, Dr. van Creveld has said that nuclear weapons cannot be “employed for waging war in any meaningful sense of that term.” In the case of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he explains, Putin “knows that if even one nuclear weapon is used, then all are going to be used and he will not last for very long.” In other words – a revival of the Cold War “mutually assured destruction” deterrent.
However, even if nuclear weapons are off the table, Biden Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that the Russians may launch chemical weapons attacks. Again, though, van Creveld believes that these fears are overwrought. “They are not going to use them because these weapons are not very effective, and they are countermeasures” and not offensive weapons, he explains. “They were used in Syria but they did not end the war.”
Professor van Creveld believes that Putin has already reached the limits of what he could hope to gain from the war, and that committing more troops to Ukraine or escalating the conflict further would bog down Russia in a stalemate guerilla war reminiscent of Vietnam and Afghanistan for the United States.
Indeed, Dr. van Creveld, a student of history, believes that Putin has learned a great deal from the experiences of both the USSR and the United States in Afghanistan, as well as Western involvement in the Middle East generally since 9/11. It should be noted that van Creveld was a strident opponent of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq from the onset of the operation, going so far as to suggest that former President George W. Bush should be impeached and put on trial for the act.
“The goal of the conquerors is to create order and a condition [for the conquerors] to govern the country,” Dr. van Creveld explains. But, with any invasion, “instituting order is much more difficult than creating chaos.” This was the lesson American forces learned in Afghanistan: establishing a government and building a new society from scratch was a far more difficult task than the one the Taliban had, which was simply to wreak havoc and wait out the U.S.
The same situation is now setting in for Putin in Ukraine. “I do not see how the Russians are ever going to achieve the objective,” Dr. van Creveld says. “Sooner or later one side is going to give up, and I think it will be the Russians,” he says.
For the sake of the world, millions of Ukrainian citizens, and hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides forced into a war over one man’s ambitions, let us hope he is correct.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
Or will Lose the war??
Russia is cleaning the bio weapons labs out, child/human trafficking out. Ukrainian government is dirty and deep state is using it to finance their operations. Most of “shots” on the news, even FOX, are fake! See Social Media FAKE Kharkov, Ukraine, 2022 and REALITY Beirut, Lebanon, 2020. Wish I could attach the pictures.
It is still far too early to say which way the war in Ukraine will end. Yes, the Russians are disorganized, and Putin did not adequately account for the will of the Ukrainian people to actually stand up to him. He expected the kind of response he would have likely received if he had attacked almost any country in western Europe. Weak political leaders dashing to planes to save themselves, while the general population all tried fleeing in droves. Instead, he encountered a country of people willing to stand up and defend themselves. What a concept in this day and age. It helps that many countries in the region remember what life was like under the former Soviet Union and have no desire to return to that lifestyle.
However, NATO and the United States did NOT take advantage of the nearly one year lag time between Putin’s initial movement of troops to the Ukraine border to ship sufficient arms to Ukraine as a back-up plan should diplomatic talks with Putin fail. Aside from the arms that President Trump supplied during his term, most NATO countries and the Biden administration dragged their feet on supplying anything but blankets and MREs. Even now, the Biden administration is slow-walking delivery of much needed weapons to allow the Ukrainians a chance to push their current momentum against Russian forces before they can regroup, resupply and go on the offensive again.
So as I said, as long as bombs are being dropped and missiles are still be fired by Russian forces, you can’t claim the Russians have lost the war. Putin’s initial objective of quickly rolling in and scooping up Ukraine intact may be over, but now he has moved on to his scorched earth policy of kill everyone and destroy everything in his path. He seems to be setting the example that he would rather level the country to demonstrate to the world that he won’t back down and settle for anything that portrays him as losing face.
I hope Dr. van, Creveld is proved right. What an asset to know what a rational person who knows war and is watching specifics closely expects.
Let us not forget the ” PROPAGANDA MACHINE ” that began long before Putin actually invaded the Ukraine which he is doing primarily for political purposes imho in either case…I’m also once again mentioning a ” Ben Solis as the pen name of an international affairs journalist…” on this story.
The so-called professor Dr. Martin van Creveld’s opinions on what is really happening on the ground in the Ukraine leaves me with suspicion as well…The professors thoughts on Russia NOT going nuclear or using chemicals, he is correct, to do so would be counterproductive for Putin & he knew this long before invading the Ukraine…MSM, the Global Elites & western nations that own & operate MSM are all selling the same narrative about Russia being the Big Bad Wolf here. Even the Epoch Times along with their NTD News network are getting this story completely wrong…
Facts: Putin has a 83% approval rating by the people of Russia…Russia is dismantling the Global Elite structure, i.e. the NWO by NOT allowing NATO in any of her sister states bordering her.
Both China & Russia were in full agreement on the invasion of Ukraine no less than ( 3 ) months prior, hence China’s staying out of the worldwide sanctions game against anything Russian, i.e. both China & Russia had long since agreed to trade in the Russian Ruble & the Chinese Yuan, long before any invasion occurred, hence they both have effectively by-passed the Federal Reserve’s US Dollar with other nations considering this too, i.e. Saudi Arabia is considering excepting payments for oil in the Yuan, India also plays a part because Putin will sell oil to India at a discounted price… Both Russia & China have their own credit card systems that are larger than Master Card & VISA combined… Is any of this being reported on MSM news? NO it is not…
All those supposed Russian tanks in flames as the Ukrainian soldiers are walking away from them each night on TV, remember the narrative being sold by the above mentioned news sources, i.e. PROPAGANDA made for TV audiences around the globe…
Meanwhile, America is suffering the consequences of a unsecured, WIDE OPEN southern border whilst a clueless, suffering from dementia American president is playing the fiddle whilst America burns to the ground… Keep watching & listening & actually believing the never ending propaganda machine being hoisted upon the sheeple of the earth & the outcome will be all be but certain, the very real possibility of all out war, i.e. WWIII…
To think we as American citizens are where we are in as little as ( 15 ) months time with respect to the allowance of a rigged 2020 presidential election of epic proportions to make it so, from both domestic players & foreign nations involved in the ” Steal of the Century. ”
Bill… :~)
Hard to call him a loser while he holds a nuclear knife to our throats. Certainly, if we had a president with balls like Reagan or Trump, he would tell Vlad that our own nukes were aimed directly at his bunghole!
I agree with Dr. van Creveld that Russia will eventually give up trying to conquer the Ukraine. The Ukrainians have proven to be fierce fighters who would rather be dead than allow Putin to rule their country. The Ukrainians have a proud and long history, independent of Russian rule. Those who equate Russia with the Ukraine are very ignorant of true history. Personally, I am very impressed with the Ukrainian people. Their need to be free is a very admirable trait. Sadly, many Americans no longer value their freedoms. They are very willing to allow domestic and foreign socialists and communists to destroy our Constitutional Republic.
Wow. Talk about a piece of propaganda…. Shameful.
Putin has committed atrocities beyond belief in Ukraine. And Biden has Russia negotiating with Iran for the United States of America! State Department is considering letting Russia purchase Iran’s excess enriched Uranium under the new agreement. Enriched Uranium is the core ingredient to make nuclear weapons! What is wrong with these people?
I just want to wake up from this nightmare!
And the Nightmare continues at our own Borders. LACK OF BORDER SECURITY IN OUR COUNTRY! HOMELAND SECURITY HAS DONE NOTHING TO SECURE OUR HOMELAND. IT IS AFFECTING OUR Security, Economy and health systems. And ending Title 42 will be disastrous.
No matter what the end result is, Putin has already destroyed much of Ukraine & displaced millions of women and children. The man is brutal & I wish the media would quit telling Russia they are losing as I am sure that this only makes Putin madder than he is now. He has one of those personalities like a bully and one that likes power. Time to quit feeding the bear.
Yay! Another “wishful thinking” piece by AMAC. Wow. I guess things are so simple! We invaded Iraq because Sadaam Hussein “hated freedom and democracy” and this war is “because of one man’s ambitions.” Oh, by the way, which man? Are we talking Biden? Obama? Putin? Just wanting to be clear.
I don’t think Putin expected Ukraine to fight back or for the US to supply them with ammunition to keep fighting.
What if Russia’s goal is just to drive out most/all of the people making it easier for Russia to “move in” and take over?
Didn’t Klaus Schwab indicate that both Putin and Zelensky were part of the World Economic Forum in some online clips that are available?
So far talking other veterans, I am trying keeping open mind! Now looking back in Vietnam war, it seems the Democrats wanted the war…
If i heard the tv news anchor correctly last week , it was said that Russia was going through a new recruitment drive ( by conscription ) AND that Russia would be bringing in re-enforcements very shortly , almost immediately . This tells me that Russia is conscripting civilians and putting them directly into tanks and into war with little to no training . I also think Russia has not “sold” Putin’s war to the Russian populace . And also , not to those conscripts . Russians are probably wondering what’s going on . Putin has ordered a total black-out of news and popular communications in order to hide the war from the Russian people . Apparently , Putin thinks he ‘owns‘ the Russian people . He’s willing to have them invade and place into harms way without letting them know . He’s willing to conscript Russians and use them as cannon fodder . Who the hell does Putin think he is ? ? ?
Seems that even the Israelis are buying the western worlds media spin on Ukraine. Watch this coming week when roughly 65% of the Ukraine military will be removed from the chessboard and for once go back and check what Putin said he wished to accomplish at the outset of the conflict then see just how much of a “loss” the Russian military has suffered.
Check some real sources folks then report
I wish more countries woudl go to help Ukraine. I wish the USA had the guts to help. With a little air support the Russian army woudl be wiped out.
Putin has over 75% of his military in Ukraine and the Ukrainians are destroying them. With a little help the Ukraine woudl win this war in a matter of weeks. If that happened Putin with be eliminated by the Russians. the Russian army woudl be devastated and Russian would have to settle for unconditional surrender and leave Ukraine alone; probably have to pay war damages.
I believe the Ukrainian leaders over our own when it comes to claims of Russian genocide. After all, Putin’s record of lying throughout history is a proven fact. He’s trying to follow. Hitlers footsteps.
I am amazed that so many believe the media on this war but do not believe the media on ‘Russian Conspiracy” The Ukrainian government is corrupt beyond description. We should sit this one out. However the Warhawks like selling weapons and who is paying for them, surely not the Ukrainians?
Gerry
What nonsense from Dr. van Creveld…
Van Creveld is shilling for the Neocons and all others who want to prolong the proxy war by promoting false hopes of a Russian defeat. Sorry don’t believe a word in this article.
Never believe the propaganda from any corrupt and dishonest country ( like the ones that lined our dirty filthy presidents pockets) . Smoke and mirrors are being used everyday to distract the country and the World from the failure of COVID to destroy everything. Now it’s a war with Russia and Ukraine? No more lies from DR EVIL, the one who severed beagles vocal chords to keep there horrifying cries quiet while there literally being tortured. Yes , the timing of this war is almost strategically perfect for the elitist haters of western civilization and all it’s people. And if your watching our currency is plummeting against the Russian Ruble? As our completely compromised and corrupt president said , it’s time for a new world order to dominate everyone and everything.
This is a treatise on wishful thinking.
Putin has already achieved the goal I’m interested in. He pulled the curtain back
My concern is the weakness we have on display in Washington and CRT is being forced on our Military which is intervening on their training and defense spending cut could China see our weakness and try the same on our country, something to think about. It is even scary thinking China may attack Twain depending the outcome of Putin’s war on Ukraine
Or will Lose the war??
Russia is cleaning the bio weapons labs out, child/human trafficking out. Ukrainian government is dirty and deep state is using it to finance their operations. Most of “shots” on the news, even FOX, are fake! See Social Media FAKE Kharkov, Ukraine, 2022 and REALITY Beirut, Lebanon, 2020. Wish I could attach the pictures.
It is still far too early to say which way the war in Ukraine will end. Yes, the Russians are disorganized, and Putin did not adequately account for the will of the Ukrainian people to actually stand up to him. He expected the kind of response he would have likely received if he had attacked almost any country in western Europe. Weak political leaders dashing to planes to save themselves, while the general population all tried fleeing in droves. Instead, he encountered a country of people willing to stand up and defend themselves. What a concept in this day and age. It helps that many countries in the region remember what life was like under the former Soviet Union and have no desire to return to that lifestyle.
However, NATO and the United States did NOT take advantage of the nearly one year lag time between Putin’s initial movement of troops to the Ukraine border to ship sufficient arms to Ukraine as a back-up plan should diplomatic talks with Putin fail. Aside from the arms that President Trump supplied during his term, most NATO countries and the Biden administration dragged their feet on supplying anything but blankets and MREs. Even now, the Biden administration is slow-walking delivery of much needed weapons to allow the Ukrainians a chance to push their current momentum against Russian forces before they can regroup, resupply and go on the offensive again.
So as I said, as long as bombs are being dropped and missiles are still be fired by Russian forces, you can’t claim the Russians have lost the war. Putin’s initial objective of quickly rolling in and scooping up Ukraine intact may be over, but now he has moved on to his scorched earth policy of kill everyone and destroy everything in his path. He seems to be setting the example that he would rather level the country to demonstrate to the world that he won’t back down and settle for anything that portrays him as losing face.
I hope Dr. van, Creveld is proved right. What an asset to know what a rational person who knows war and is watching specifics closely expects.
Let us not forget the ” PROPAGANDA MACHINE ” that began long before Putin actually invaded the Ukraine which he is doing primarily for political purposes imho in either case…I’m also once again mentioning a ” Ben Solis as the pen name of an international affairs journalist…” on this story.
The so-called professor Dr. Martin van Creveld’s opinions on what is really happening on the ground in the Ukraine leaves me with suspicion as well…The professors thoughts on Russia NOT going nuclear or using chemicals, he is correct, to do so would be counterproductive for Putin & he knew this long before invading the Ukraine…MSM, the Global Elites & western nations that own & operate MSM are all selling the same narrative about Russia being the Big Bad Wolf here. Even the Epoch Times along with their NTD News network are getting this story completely wrong…
Facts: Putin has a 83% approval rating by the people of Russia…Russia is dismantling the Global Elite structure, i.e. the NWO by NOT allowing NATO in any of her sister states bordering her.
Both China & Russia were in full agreement on the invasion of Ukraine no less than ( 3 ) months prior, hence China’s staying out of the worldwide sanctions game against anything Russian, i.e. both China & Russia had long since agreed to trade in the Russian Ruble & the Chinese Yuan, long before any invasion occurred, hence they both have effectively by-passed the Federal Reserve’s US Dollar with other nations considering this too, i.e. Saudi Arabia is considering excepting payments for oil in the Yuan, India also plays a part because Putin will sell oil to India at a discounted price… Both Russia & China have their own credit card systems that are larger than Master Card & VISA combined… Is any of this being reported on MSM news? NO it is not…
All those supposed Russian tanks in flames as the Ukrainian soldiers are walking away from them each night on TV, remember the narrative being sold by the above mentioned news sources, i.e. PROPAGANDA made for TV audiences around the globe…
Meanwhile, America is suffering the consequences of a unsecured, WIDE OPEN southern border whilst a clueless, suffering from dementia American president is playing the fiddle whilst America burns to the ground… Keep watching & listening & actually believing the never ending propaganda machine being hoisted upon the sheeple of the earth & the outcome will be all be but certain, the very real possibility of all out war, i.e. WWIII…
To think we as American citizens are where we are in as little as ( 15 ) months time with respect to the allowance of a rigged 2020 presidential election of epic proportions to make it so, from both domestic players & foreign nations involved in the ” Steal of the Century. ”
Bill… :~)
Hard to call him a loser while he holds a nuclear knife to our throats. Certainly, if we had a president with balls like Reagan or Trump, he would tell Vlad that our own nukes were aimed directly at his bunghole!
I agree with Dr. van Creveld that Russia will eventually give up trying to conquer the Ukraine. The Ukrainians have proven to be fierce fighters who would rather be dead than allow Putin to rule their country. The Ukrainians have a proud and long history, independent of Russian rule. Those who equate Russia with the Ukraine are very ignorant of true history. Personally, I am very impressed with the Ukrainian people. Their need to be free is a very admirable trait. Sadly, many Americans no longer value their freedoms. They are very willing to allow domestic and foreign socialists and communists to destroy our Constitutional Republic.
Wow. Talk about a piece of propaganda…. Shameful.
Putin has committed atrocities beyond belief in Ukraine. And Biden has Russia negotiating with Iran for the United States of America! State Department is considering letting Russia purchase Iran’s excess enriched Uranium under the new agreement. Enriched Uranium is the core ingredient to make nuclear weapons! What is wrong with these people?
I just want to wake up from this nightmare!
And the Nightmare continues at our own Borders. LACK OF BORDER SECURITY IN OUR COUNTRY! HOMELAND SECURITY HAS DONE NOTHING TO SECURE OUR HOMELAND. IT IS AFFECTING OUR Security, Economy and health systems. And ending Title 42 will be disastrous.
No matter what the end result is, Putin has already destroyed much of Ukraine & displaced millions of women and children. The man is brutal & I wish the media would quit telling Russia they are losing as I am sure that this only makes Putin madder than he is now. He has one of those personalities like a bully and one that likes power. Time to quit feeding the bear.
Yay! Another “wishful thinking” piece by AMAC. Wow. I guess things are so simple! We invaded Iraq because Sadaam Hussein “hated freedom and democracy” and this war is “because of one man’s ambitions.” Oh, by the way, which man? Are we talking Biden? Obama? Putin? Just wanting to be clear.
I don’t think Putin expected Ukraine to fight back or for the US to supply them with ammunition to keep fighting.
What if Russia’s goal is just to drive out most/all of the people making it easier for Russia to “move in” and take over?
Didn’t Klaus Schwab indicate that both Putin and Zelensky were part of the World Economic Forum in some online clips that are available?
So far talking other veterans, I am trying keeping open mind! Now looking back in Vietnam war, it seems the Democrats wanted the war…
If i heard the tv news anchor correctly last week , it was said that Russia was going through a new recruitment drive ( by conscription ) AND that Russia would be bringing in re-enforcements very shortly , almost immediately . This tells me that Russia is conscripting civilians and putting them directly into tanks and into war with little to no training . I also think Russia has not “sold” Putin’s war to the Russian populace . And also , not to those conscripts . Russians are probably wondering what’s going on . Putin has ordered a total black-out of news and popular communications in order to hide the war from the Russian people . Apparently , Putin thinks he ‘owns‘ the Russian people . He’s willing to have them invade and place into harms way without letting them know . He’s willing to conscript Russians and use them as cannon fodder . Who the hell does Putin think he is ? ? ?
Seems that even the Israelis are buying the western worlds media spin on Ukraine. Watch this coming week when roughly 65% of the Ukraine military will be removed from the chessboard and for once go back and check what Putin said he wished to accomplish at the outset of the conflict then see just how much of a “loss” the Russian military has suffered.
Check some real sources folks then report
I wish more countries woudl go to help Ukraine. I wish the USA had the guts to help. With a little air support the Russian army woudl be wiped out.
Putin has over 75% of his military in Ukraine and the Ukrainians are destroying them. With a little help the Ukraine woudl win this war in a matter of weeks. If that happened Putin with be eliminated by the Russians. the Russian army woudl be devastated and Russian would have to settle for unconditional surrender and leave Ukraine alone; probably have to pay war damages.
I believe the Ukrainian leaders over our own when it comes to claims of Russian genocide. After all, Putin’s record of lying throughout history is a proven fact. He’s trying to follow. Hitlers footsteps.
I am amazed that so many believe the media on this war but do not believe the media on ‘Russian Conspiracy” The Ukrainian government is corrupt beyond description. We should sit this one out. However the Warhawks like selling weapons and who is paying for them, surely not the Ukrainians?
Gerry
What nonsense from Dr. van Creveld…
Van Creveld is shilling for the Neocons and all others who want to prolong the proxy war by promoting false hopes of a Russian defeat. Sorry don’t believe a word in this article.
Never believe the propaganda from any corrupt and dishonest country ( like the ones that lined our dirty filthy presidents pockets) . Smoke and mirrors are being used everyday to distract the country and the World from the failure of COVID to destroy everything. Now it’s a war with Russia and Ukraine? No more lies from DR EVIL, the one who severed beagles vocal chords to keep there horrifying cries quiet while there literally being tortured. Yes , the timing of this war is almost strategically perfect for the elitist haters of western civilization and all it’s people. And if your watching our currency is plummeting against the Russian Ruble? As our completely compromised and corrupt president said , it’s time for a new world order to dominate everyone and everything.
This is a treatise on wishful thinking.
Putin has already achieved the goal I’m interested in. He pulled the curtain back
My concern is the weakness we have on display in Washington and CRT is being forced on our Military which is intervening on their training and defense spending cut could China see our weakness and try the same on our country, something to think about. It is even scary thinking China may attack Twain depending the outcome of Putin’s war on Ukraine